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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.
Looking at the cams, honshu resorts got a dusting.
Still a light westerly.
A dusting for Nagano / Niigata is the usual outcome in that situation.
from the yuzawa cam https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/webcam-yuzawa-ic-niigata
the snow line looks to be around 600 to 700 m
This picture was filmed in Yokote, Akita Prefecture only at 59m asl at 9:40am(JMA has a weather station there at 59m asl). The snowdepth 0cm to 69cm in about 40 hours.
According to JMA, Hijiori (330m asl in Yamagata Pref) had 71cm in the last 24 hours. From 33cm to 104cm in 24 hours.
snow finally falling in yuzawa
It's not surprising on this westerly cloud. You can see there area clearly on the new snow map. that area has had 109cm in the last 3 days.
Personally, I don't count much on JMA's data of Yuzawa and the road webcams of Yuzawa in that they are a lot different from ski slopes of Yuzawa region. JMA's weather station of Yuzawa is only at 340m asl, and it's in the downtown. It means, it can be 5C warmer than the base of Naeba = 900m asl(and other ski resorts in the region). It means, even if it's rainning in Yuzawa's downtown and JMA's weather station in Yuzawa shows +0cm snowdepth, Naeba, etc can have + 40cm on ski slopes. On the other hand, JMA's weather station in Nozawa Onsen is very close to the ski slopes, so I count on the data of JMA's weather station in Nozawa Onsen.
JMA has a weather station in Yuda, Iwate Prefecture and Yuda has had about +40cm in the last 24 hours and I translate / calculate it like "If it has snowed 40cm in Yuda, Geto must have had 60 - 70cm"
I was observing the yuzawa IC cam https://www.snowjapan.com/japan-daily-snow-weather-reports/webcam-yuzawa-ic-niigata
Do you know where the location is of the cam? I had a feeling is was close to NASPA ski garden, but come to think it it's possibly closer to town.
Yes, but if it's snowing heavily in Yuzawa town, you KNOW that the freeze/snow level is lower than 300m, and that every snow resort in the Yuzawa area will be getting snow, including the bottom of Joetsu Kokusai.
The orographic lift will provide maybe twice as much snow to the higher mountains, so for me, watching the snow cams and looking at the snowfall in Yuzawa Twon is very useful.
geto kogan reporting 50 cm of fresh... whether it is overnight snowfall, or the amount since the last report who knows
Edit... that amount sounds quite conservative considering @Ramenman 's post earlier
Geto Kogen officially say that the snowdepth is 140cm now. And now my ski mates are posting these images by twitter. Even seen from Ibaraki Prefecture(= our farmland), Geto Kogen(= Iwate Prefecture, northern Tohoku) is "a little bit" far.
Little far they say... if they lived in sydney and wanted to go to perisher, its at least a 5.5 hour drive..
I don't see the problem? I do this drive every weekend in winter, since 2004. Easy peasy!
Raining a little in Yokohama. 5.1 degrees and dropping....
Now 4.4 degrees in Yokohama.... that's about 2 degrees off it snowing here!!!
Looking pretty lean for the next 10 or so days here .
Yeah. Switch flicked 20th IMO
According to this, Thursday into Friday look promising..
21st looks decent.
The next big period will open around and in the days after Christmas, per the extratropical cycle.
Thursday/Friday morning looks great for Hokkaido, and moderate for Central Honshu.
Saturday/Sunday looks great for Honshu as a whole. Not as cold as mid-winter, but it's getting there.
We are looking at:
12th and 13th morning
14th and 15th
Something around 20th-23rd
What sort of period are you seeing some potential after Christmas at this stage?
On snow 26th, so very interested in this period.
Quite the bubble
For now, it's just climate driver potential in that last week of Dec. Stay tuned.
Jelly, are you doing another long term forcast at the drivers for Japan soon do you think?
Hopefully within the next two weeks.
Forecast for Honshu looking a bit lean for the next week. Is there still a chance of decent snow around 20/21 December?
Hokkaido looks like it got rain again last night. Back to snow later today but looks like another warm spell again next Tuesday with possible rain again.
low pressure system developing in the sea of japan next tues/wed isn't ideal at all
yeah think this could be classed as a slow start to the season for Honshu
I arrive on 28th December at Madarao..: hoping thing change quickly as I need plenty of fresh in the trees!
things change quickly in japan so not
I don't arrive until end of January so not worried yet but we all want more snow plus I want those with earlier trips to have snow too (I'm not too greedy!).
The winter change came early.
Now we just have a very early relaxation of the pattern as was kind of expected
Honestly the medium range forecast isn’t that awful, it’s just not as fast as one would like.
23rd is starting to shape up pretty well FWIW.
Music to my ears. The family and I have our first day in Hakuba on the 23rd.
In my view, it's not a slow start for central Honshu yet. It's the 12th Dec, and I don't usually expect to be on the snow now.
The step change to early winter is usually around the period between 15th --- 23rd December.
In my view, central Honshu is still not in "early winter" right now, and it usually never is at this time (12th Dec). This is on the ground observation.... it doesn't feel like winter, and it isn't. We had cold temperatures in Tokyo/Yokohama last week, but these were cold rainy days, which is NOT winter weather here.
"1a. When not to come to Japan
December in central Japan is not predicable enough to risk a holiday, unless you go as near to New Year as possible. March is spring, and while you can get some years that are brilliant, you will get a higher chance of rain, and less chance of powder."
"If you come to central Japan in early January, it may be snowing hard, but there is not as much base if you want to ski/board off piste or in the trees, because obstacles have not been fully covered. As a consequence, there are more back country gates opening at the end of January, than in the first week, because those dodgey creeks have been covered over, and branches buried."
I'm trying to be not too pessimistic here. However I don't think the trees will have enough snow by December 28th at Madarao. Same deal at Nozawa. Its too early.
Early snow on Honshu typically comes from the west. Which isn't very ideal for the Myoko (or Nozawa) area.
I'd also say this season has been dead on average at this point for Honshu overall.
AGREE !!!! Unless you want to go home in an ambulance .
Precipitation is well down on average over the past 20 days in Nagano. Nozawa is 32% of average, Hakuba (the town, not the slopes) 23%, Otari 43%. The weather stations in the snowy bits of Niigata are pretty much average.
Its one of ramenman's Japanese links
I reckon precip is way more important than average temp at this time of year. Average temp can be low due to overnight radiative cooling due to lack of cloud, regardless of whether we're getting the cold airflows we know and love. Cloudless and 7C at 3pm can easily be -5C at 6am the next morning.
There's a great-looking pattern firming up for Dec 23 like jellybean's snapshot, but not so good on either side of it. With the way GFS is looking, at this point, I'd be worrying about resorts being fully open on Dec 28, a Saturday and the start of the Japanese New Year holiday, not whether the trees will be ridable. If lots of customers are crammed into few open slopes at few resorts, expect long lift lines. The advice on here about when to go is completely correct, but for the overall health of the Japanese ski industry, good conditions by Dec 28 are still important. Its when they make a lot of their money.
There's a reason. Until last Sunday, Tokyo area has been dreary and raining for more than a week, which is unusual. This is because of low pressure on the Pacific side of the mountains. When this happens, it precipitates less on the Sea of Japan side.
The snow in Hokkaido last week got my hopes up that I may be skiing soft snow or even some powder next week when I'm there.
Reality check with this warm weather and ra*n.
Now hoping for some groomers to practice carve turns on due to spring like temps in the forecast. Hopefully they can keep a fair bit open.
Don't despair @Sbooker (depending on where you are going in Hokkaido as many regional differences). Warm two days have finished here in Furano in central Hokkaido and we still have a good base. I drove through a ground blizzard today from Tomamu, where it is also snowing heavily. Been snowing heavily just outside Furano 180 ASL since about midday. More to come over the next week. Still the odd warmish event (2 degrees in town for next Tuesday) but plenty of localised snow falls over the next two weeks. Bring your powder boards. December always has fluctuating temps but a pretty good start in central Hokkaido.
The Japanese maples in our back yard garden in Yokohama have turned, so winter is not far off.....
Starting to get there in Hakuba...
A few areas on honshu got a sprinkle...
December 28 is 2 weeks away - thats a long time in the context of snowfall in Japan. From experience the week between Christmas eve and New Years in can snow 3 metres + in central Japan
No need to wait until Christmas Eve, it can snow three meters by mid December! See 2015 for a recent example
No repeat this year, but let's keep our fingers crossed for later in the month. It won't be this week according to the charts. The Japanese calendar is not weather-dependent, so crowds from Dec 28 is a given. Lots of open slopes to spread em out is best.
It is definitely later this year ....... and it doesn't look good until after xmas .
I have been skiing by now for at least the past 5 seasons .
Yeah but March has been iffy.
I recall quite a few December’s when we were arriving just after Christmas and it was patchy as in Hokkaido and only really got pumping the first week of Jan.
It’s the ravages of waiting for natural snow I guess.
What happened to 23rd December?
You tell me