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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.
Looks like the reports on the ground reconcile with the JMA snowfall image:
And the snowdepth / snowfall is "at least" in that JMA's weather stations are at lower elevations. I mean, ski slopes usually have bigger snowfall than JMA's weather stations
Myoko 105cm, Seki 150cm new snow!
Lake/sea effect snow is more westerly now, do more snow should be falling nearer the coast.
I’m currently at Shizukuishi. Not a lot seems to have fallen overnight. Even though morioka seemed to change overnight
At least it’s a nice day
FKN nuts at Geto!!! Waist deep groomers. Trying to find blacks to keep moving. Hard work.
Huge Pineapple express showing for Thursday next week
Just 10cm reported at 47/Goryu & Happo. Tenji has done well with over 50cm. Myoko & Geto.. Wow.
Rain on the way next week?
Still a week away, so subject to change. But doesn't look pretty:
More than about 50-60cm and it gets worse not better! A meter and you'll be straightlining the steepest thing you can find.
Some very impressive microforecasting from Meteoblue yesterday. These are their Hakuba and Otari forecasts from yesterday. The Hakuba one is the town hall, yes, "in the valley" or "away from the slopes", but the Otari (Kurokawa) one is near for Chikuni Station, just as much "in the valley" or "away from the slopes". Chikuni station is near that big Cortina sign on the main road. This forecasting is impressive because the two locations are only about 9km apart. Like the forecast, it had pretty much stopped snowing by 10pm at town level in Hakuba.
(snow forecast.com had nearly identical numbers for Otari and Hakuba)
Sadly the pineapple been there for days. I’m hoping it has extremely low confidence....
Puking at Sotozawa- route 148 heading out to the coast.
Geez with this season, I'd be letting people enjoy the moment rather than looking ahead a week.
Every Thursday, JMA release one month forecast and they issued the latest one today. So, this week is likely to be the best week of the worst season in a century.
Great share, but god that's depressing. 70% warmer and 70% less snow for a lot of resorts in Honshu. At the least long term forecasts often miss the mark, here's to hoping.
In better news, it’s been snowing all day in Shiga Kogen and is still snowing. Although most lifts seem to be running it was very windy inlaces and I didn’t venture far from the hotel.
70% chance of it being warmer than average. Not 70% warmer.
And this is about precipitation. So, the Sea of Japan side is likely to be drier and Pacific Ocean side is likely to be wetter than average season. It's been happening throughout this season. West high east low air pressure pattern is common winter air pressure pattern which causes lake effect snowfall to Sea of Japan side cities but the typical winter air pressure pattern hasn't happened much this winter. As a result, Sea of Japan side has smaller precipitation and Pacific Ocean side has bigger precipitation than average winter.
This is the typical winter air pressure pattern(Blue 高 = High, Red 低 = Low). And when the typical winter air pressure pattern appears, Japanese forecasters say "Winter Shogun is coming". Winter Shogun hasn't come much this winter.
This is even better. West high east low air pressure pattern brings big precipitation = snow in Sea of Japan side cities.
That said, I'm not a weather expert. So don't believe me too much. There are many weather experts on this thread / forum, so believe what they say instead of me
Hard to tell bc i find these webcams ‘unreliable’ in terms of time, but if current it’s blitzing at Nozawa
Update: only a short while after posting this, the weather came in and started snowing very nicely for a couple hours at about midday. That certainly changed things. Also, I found trees!!! just me and my tracks!! So, what a difference a couple hours makes.
When Geto's on, it's ON! Enjoy!
I'm not a big believer in the JMA long terms, especially the monthly one, but I must say this is the first winter where I've seen them say less snow than average is 70 or 80% more likely. Normally they hedge their bets and say "50%" at most, "70%" is very committal for them, and it has been pretty much stuck there all winter.
A winter with slightly less than average snow would still be very good, so "less than average" is of little meaning for skiers.
Shizukuishi is a very good example that explains why I want more people to visit ski resorts in Tohoku. Shizukuishi used to have the 2 longest vertical gondolas of Japan. The longest gondola was roughly from 420m to 1320m(or 1350m, I don't remember exact altitude) , so the vertical is about 900m +. There isn't such big vertical gondola in Japan. And Shizukuishi used to have two of them, not one. As you know, Shizukuishi ski resort has two mountain peaks and one of them is CAT only now. Shizukuishi has lost two of them(so one of the peaks has become CAT only). The peak of the mountain is about 1420m asl and the terrains around the peak are very delicious. It used to be a quite easy hike, but without the gondola, you need a longer hike(still, it's a kind of short hike, though).
This was filmed around the peak on March 15th. Mid winter can be even better. Advanced skiers ride OOB from the peak 1420m to 600m(they don't ski down to inbound runs). It's long delicious treerun OOB.
Oops, it's a weather thread, not "latest ski & tourism news" thread, so I should stop writing about it here now
Snow for last 72 hours on JMA
Just to clarify the situation at Hakuba, for reports overnight:
- Cortina & Norikura reported +40cm (both about right, as I was there today)
- Tsugaike 25cm
- Goryu & 47, around 20-25cm
- Happo 15cm
- Iwatake 5cm
How do they make this map?. I mean, I think there are snowdepth colors on the places where JMA don't have weather stations. For example, there is Mt.Iide = 2,105m in Fukushima Pref (in the center of Fukushima, Niigata and Yamagata of the map below). It's quite snowy tall mountain but the accessibility is quite bad, so only very small number of skiers go and ride the mountain. There isn't a weather station there, so not many people even know how snowy it is there.
I agree with you!
The first time I went to Aomori/Mt Hakkoda was in March 2015 ad it was mind blowing. It kept on snowing and every morning we were welcomed by a new layer of powder and that's why I'm heading there this year as well, in the same period.
Heavy snow set in again at Kitakami. Judging by the weather station on the other side of the mountains in Yokote (elevation 59m) which is already +20cm since lifts closed yesterday, Geto could be up for another 30-50cm. Hectic.
I've seen treerun courses are closed "because of too much snowfall overnight" at Geto. Lack of snowdepth can be a problem for treeruns at many ski resorts but as to Geto Kogen, you need to worry about "too much snow" as well
I think JMA has weather stations that they don't release info for.
Much respect for this forum. So we're headed to Hokkaido for a chase towards the end of next week and I've been running the models on Tropical Tidbits desperately seeking a glimmer of hope that we won't be looking at a full-on pineapple rain crust reset just as we touch down. I could be wrong, but it seems like that glimmer of hope just isn't there. Based on what I've gleaned from this forum, next Sunday looks promising, but I'd prefer any snow that might fall to land on heavy powder as opposed to bullet proof ice. Somebody tell me I'm wrong so I can go enjoy all the snow that's going to fall on the Idaho Panhandle this weekend!
It seems JMA made a very complicated algorithm to assess & calculate how much snow is supposed to be there by use of temperature, precipitation, snow depth, etc of the weather stations nearby, some data they can get from satellites, etc. So, it's not the snowdepth that they measure, but it's a very complicated calculation. It looks very accurate and very good. I mean, for example, there are two weather stations "near" Geto Kogen. When those weather stations nearby have only 30cm - 40cm of snowdepth, Geto Kogen can have 400cm + of snowdepth. JMA's weather stations can't tell us how much snow is actually there on mountains but the new "calculation" map that JMA newly started releasing can tell us how much snow is actually on the mountains.
Like I said in the previous post, if you only see snowdepth data of JMA's weather stations, you never notice the quite big snowdepth (the purple one = bigger than 200cm) in the border of Fukushima - Niigata - Yamagata = Mt.Iide. You can't notice how much snow is there on Mt.Gassan(Yamagata) and Mt.Chokai(Yamagata + Akita) as well(both are the snowiest mountains of Japan according to my ski guru). Too snowy = population is quite small = JMA doesn't have weather stations there. So the new map helps us a lot (at least me and my ski mates!).
Mid next week looking warm and wet , 2 steps forward 1 step back.
Yup, Thursday + Friday has some yucky looking lows track up from Southern China bringing r**n. Decent setup 10 days out though!
Is myoko getting much snow tommoro
Hope it changes for the better for everyone on the way over soon. I’ve actually timed things pretty well with my Shiga Kogen trip. Fingers crossed for more fresh snow Saturday night
Looks like it's going to get a really solid dump from Friday evening into Sunday morning.
I observe (from my hotel window) snow on the ground, when yesterday there was none in Aizuwakamatsu. I can't tell how much from here. Buy...yeh! Snow!
Steadily snowing in Shiga Kogen this morning. Not heavy but definitely more than a dusting.
My observations at 7am from the hotel in wadano (hakuba)
Tha car was parked there in the evening last night.
So approx 10cm to 15 on the ground. Good flakage but wouldn't say puking just yet.
Just started falling at Okushiga kogen too!
Muchos snow coming down in Myoko right now.At least 20cm overnight.
8cm at Hakuba Station, which is a very good sign....
Fwiw it looks a bit heavier now. Flakes are defo fatter
Snowing heavily at Hakuba
Akakura, Myoko has really big nice fat flakes puking down, absolutely awesome. Wife and 6 yr old daughter got first tracks but my turn later and hopefully first tracks for me tomorrow morning. Loving it