The Japanese snow season 2019-2020 Weather

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.

  1. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Hard Yards

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    I don't arrive until 14 Jan so plenty of time for the switch to flick, but watching and waiting has been brutal.
    The forecast maps are changing so much. Hopefully it settles into something like a "normalised" winter pattern for Honshu soon. Need a couple decent dumps. :confused:
     
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  2. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Massive deja vu - I swear we have this conversation almost every year in the forum! Early season in Japan can be low tide sometimes, especially on Honshu. The snow is coming, relax
     
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  3. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    It usually goes something like this:
    Relax, its only November...
    ....its only early December...
    ....its only mid December...
    ....it's only early Jan....and so on.
     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Japanese alps will get a sneaky heavy fall (short lived duration) later this week as a low pressure forms in the sea of Japan.
     
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  5. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Hard Yards

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    Totally agree.
    I guess I'm just over analysing the weather charts this year.
     
  6. SnowOrca

    SnowOrca Early Days

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    As long as its better than 15/16 I'll be a happy camper. That was a rough season, I'd never seen the lower runs of happo still mostly grass that late into Jan before.
     
  7. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    That's not what I said ....... I am usually skiing by now .
     
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  8. fukuro-no-mori

    fukuro-no-mori Hard Yards

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    Nozawa usually starts earlier than Hakuba, doesn't it. No snow at Hakuba town level at Christmas has become fairly common, something like three out of the last five. It's a relief to have most of 47 open already.

    I haven't checked but I presume they still have no guns at Nozawa. The promotion always used to be "100% natural snow". It does snow like buggery at Nozawa, but if you have international skiers booking months in advance, using guns to ensure a minimum level of service by a certain date would be a courtesy to them. Japanese skiers don't book long in advance and can just stay home if it doesn't snow.
     
  9. Dave6

    Dave6 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It then starts to dump on or about the time that you are leaving to come home.
     
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  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think Hakuba starts earlier because of altitude and it cops westerly snow better.
    Mind you there has been zero NW systems at this point. Hence why noz has sucked.
     
  11. zarik

    zarik Hard Yards

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    Can still drive to Shiga or Ryuo maybe. It is surprising that this year Hakuba is so far ahead. I went to Goryu yesterday, top is nice natural snow. They also had the quad at the bottom running with artificial snow.
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If snow has not penetrated to Nozawa early season, then usually there's not so much snow at Shiga Kogen.... It requires a much more specific direction there.
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Early season westerly blow over snow tends to help 47/Goryu and Happo( and Tsugaike to a lesser extent), since they're closer to the peaks. That's why they tend to be better early season, than Iwatake and Cortina.
     
    #113 Sandy, Dec 17, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2019
  14. SnowOrca

    SnowOrca Early Days

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    Snow Forecast is starting to show some decent falls around 27th - 28th Dec.
     
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  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. Long range charts think so.
    There will be snow between then and now.
    Snow in Tokyo soon too. IMO
     
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  16. Syazwan

    Syazwan First Runs

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    Is that considered late? I am just comparing to Dec 2018, which seems a little bit delayed. (Honshu island)
     
  17. Steven Williams

    Steven Williams First Runs

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    Had my tour cancel and refund my money today to Shiga Kogen, due to lack of snow for 22nd - 26th of Dec.

    Have instead booked Hakuba 47 as the snow definitely looks better there, and heavy falls the day we leave, of course.

    First time at either of the 2.
     
  18. SnowOrca

    SnowOrca Early Days

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    Pretty common for Honshu.. take a look at the historic Hakuba snowfall charts on mountainlife - its quite common for the season to properly kick off between Christmas and New Years.
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anytime before new years on Honshu is a lucky dip IMO. There is no normal.
    It all changes very quickly in japan. The flick usually occurs around the 18th to 26th December.
    *thats based purely on watching Japanese winters since 1998ish.
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Read here first:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/japan-general-tips-for-when-and-where-to-go-for-snow.69888/
     
  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow-forecast.com is not that useful for predicting snow in Japan, because it doesn't do a good job of predicting lake/sea effect snow.
    See here on how to predict snow (or just read in this thread for current predictions):
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-tutorial-for-japan.63512/
     
  22. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this stage it looks like not much until the end of the month and then boom.
    For Honshu.
     
  23. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    I hope so! I just looked at the short term forecasts and it's all dry at Madarao.

    Not there till the 14th Jan but still!
     
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  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That system around the 31st/1st has 200cm written all over it. (If it happens that way ;) )
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Honshu
    Decent enough snow 23rd ....
    Much betterer 26th ..
    However these systems have a element of snow in strange places.

    Then as alluded to earlier.
    A switch flicked later towards new years

    Via EC model .
     
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  26. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us

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    I think The switch will be flicked very very December and looks like a bit of snow this weekend.

    this weekend seems to have a bit as well?

    I think the switch flicks well and truely from the 26th
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Yamanhashi area (Minami Alps) and Fuji has snowfall rates of 14-16cm for 6- hrs for sunday night.
     
  28. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Remnant of the that Kofu dump of a few years back?
     
  29. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    This new years bomb looks interesting. Some incredible snow could fall in spots. If that centre tracks as currently predicted, then central/eastern Hokkaido will get smoked.
    [​IMG]

    * Side note: snow to Kagoshima...
     
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  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only worry
    It looks nothing like that on EC......
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not quite the duration of depth of cold... but yeah. Few areas up high are going to get plastered.
     
  32. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Yeah, still moving big time on each GFS run.
     
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  33. fukuro-no-mori

    fukuro-no-mori Hard Yards

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    I keep telling myself to not get excited about big lows that are on the tail end of GFS, because they regularly disappear, but that one looks the business!

    For town level in Hakuba, the base forecast on Snow-Forecast.com is pretty good. No-one skis at town level, so it's useless for that, but it can tell you with fair accuracy how long it will take to get your car out in the morning.
     
  34. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    Snowforecast is starting to look better for around 23 December (I’m looking at Shiga Kogen). I know it’s not that accurate for Japan but if nothing else the freezing line looks great :)
     
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  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like small amounts of snow for Naeba on and off for the rest of the week with the switch being thrown around Boxing Day, IMO.
     
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  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm trusting EC a bit more now
    This is ridic
    Must not get excited
    But its EC
    Must not get excited
    But its EC
    [​IMG]
     
  37. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    God I really need some good weather news right now.
     
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  38. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us

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    What does this mean please Donzah? Think it means biblical?
     
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  39. SnowOrca

    SnowOrca Early Days

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    Normally we just head up for a few weeks. This year we've booked six weeks as a Honeymoon. Really hoping it comes through for great lifetime memories!
     
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  40. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    When and where are you going?
     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I prefer the EC model.
    GFS throws up tasty stuff. That doesn't deliver.
    EC is stoic.
    When it's looking fantastic. Giddy up.

    Just on this. The EC long range has snow depth on each main island by January 2nd
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Nagano region below mountain level:


    You can see the key periods for snowfall in Central Honshu are around the 23rd Dec, 26th-27th Dec and a good chance for the 30th Dec- 3rd Jan.

    All checks out with the latest GFS run.
     
  43. SnowOrca

    SnowOrca Early Days

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    Arriving on the 11th Jan - Heading to Nozawa x 1wk, Myoko x 1wk, Hakuba x 1wk, guided tohoku tour, then up to Furano for about 10 days.
     
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  44. squanchy

    squanchy Addicted

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    Pfftt and you’re worried?
    There will be a world of difference between 28/12 & 7/1!
     
  45. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That 30th Dec-3rd Jan period comes and goes on GFS. Doesn't look anything like it did a few days ago.
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is a bit all over the place.
     
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  47. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    With such a long time in Japow, you're guaranteed many a powder day. Watch these forums and strap in!
     
  48. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Hard Yards

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    It is seriously all over the place. One moment is looks like snowmageddon is going to hit. Then on the next run it has totally disappeared.
     
  49. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not uncommon for GFS.
     
  50. Syazwan

    Syazwan First Runs

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    I'll be in Tokyo for 2 weeks from 15th Jan. Will drop by Nagano/Hakuba.