The Japanese snow season 2019-2020 Weather

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trend ain't too good sorry people.
     
  2. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    What happened to the systems people were mentioning earlier in the thread?

    Luckily I’m not on snow until the beginning of February so anything could have happened by then.
     
  3. gibbsy

    gibbsy Addicted

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    Ikr?!?!
     
  4. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    Australian style prefrontal rain?
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just warm and bad shapes
     
  6. ACHAD

    ACHAD Early Days

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    Hokkaido as well?
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hokkaido looks ok
     
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  8. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been non-epic so far in Honshu, eg...



    Monday we might see something.
     
  9. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    Well I’d like some good shapes for Christmas please :D
     
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  10. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    is that New years system a no go now? :(

    getting genuinely concerned about the state of madarao over jan 14-17 at this point :/
     
  11. Hyst

    Hyst Enjoyer Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek::(:cry_ubb:
     
  12. fukuro-no-mori

    fukuro-no-mori Hard Yards

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    Yep, looking like the dreaded situation, which is very limited slopes available during the Japanese holidays. They start on Dec 28. There'll be very long lift lines to ride a few thin pistes covered with people. You might have seen photos a couple of years ago of the queue for Happo's Skyline lift extending most of the way up that cat track. There's still time for something big to turn up during the New Year holiday, but it's looking very unlikely by the start.

    The driest December on record in Nozawa was 120mm of precip. With 10 days to go, it's currently on 38mm.:(
     
  13. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has two different runs:
    00 & 12, and 06 & 18.
    If you happen to look at one lot, then later at the other, they will look different.
    You know that it's becoming more accurate when the two runs align.
    This is why you look at the long range forecast with some skepticism, unless they align that far out, which is not often. I usually say "if it turns out that way".

    I never make any long range bookings before the middle of January, and there's a reason for that.
     
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  14. Hyst

    Hyst Enjoyer Ski Pass: Gold

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    We all want it to look like this soon.
    Nozawa, 2. January many years ago:

     
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  15. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    World you consider Jan 14-17 safe? The words driest December on record has me a wee bit concerned....
     
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not concerned about mid January at this stage.
     
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  17. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS for 1st-3rd Jan seem to align for both 06 & 12, which recently, hasn't been the case 11 days out.
    They both show a very cold outbreak, with the 504 line at the central Japan resorts, and about 508 line around Tokyo. That would be unusually cold for Tokyo.
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah better shape this morning on the models.
    I look at every one... Look for alignment on long-range control vs deterministic.
     
  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks snowy to me. Might have something to slide on.
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll have a proper look after my morning coffee
     
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  21. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    End of the month back in a big way on GFS. Typical. I really don't know why I'm even looking at Japan weather systems. We're not even skiing there until the end of February at the earliest. Can't break the habit.
     
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  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    1st up, JMA says Hokkaido will be the place to be in January

    [​IMG]

    Of course I'm skiing Honshu this year in January so lets look at the top of Naeba courtesy of yeah nah...



    So plenty cold, just need the wind to be from the right direction at the right time. Won't be off the hook, but there will be snow to go and play in.

    Snow Forecast is showing





    Once again looking at Naeba



    So there will be snow.
    I'll be at the snow skiing.
    There will be onsens.
    And beer

    Snow + skiing + onsens + beer = win (IMO).
     
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  23. elSpike

    elSpike I am a Meat Popsicle Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m not worried. There will be snow to ski on from the moment we arrive on the 29th, with more pouring in over the 3 weeks we are there.

    I checked @DidSurfNowSki maths. S + S + O + B = win. Formulae is sound.
     
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  24. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Maybe B O S S?
     
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  25. SnowOrca

    SnowOrca Early Days

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    Latest models indicate that the switch might really flick on around new years eve (honshu)
     
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  26. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    #IWantToBelieve
    @Donzah ?
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah better shape on EC.
    I'm not so sure its a switch as such. Too many lows coming up from taiwan .
     
  28. zarik

    zarik Hard Yards

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    It is puking snow that instantly melts around Matsumoto. At higher elevation should be getting decent amount. Not sure where this is from but I am guessing Mt Norikura should be getting some love.

    Funny enough I just came back from skiing at Hakuba 47. Skis that you don’t mind skiing over rocks on recommended. Still it was skiing and thus enjoyable
     
  29. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey @Sandy. wanna come to LMB's when i am there :)
     
  30. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Karuizawa seems to be sneaky winner overnight. +20cm.
     
  31. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    When are you there?
     
  32. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    18 - 25th Jan.
    (Peeps, you probably think this is Off topic, but I assure you it not!)
     
  33. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, if you believe the commentary below, it is going to snow :)

    Yes I know you can't trust the forecasts this far out but #IWantToBelieve

     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Matches up with GFS this morning.
     
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  35. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, but snow-forecast is usually way off.
     
  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    How about a nice meteogram using GFS ? ;)

    [​IMG]
     
  37. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Hard Yards

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    I feel like I need a 2 day course to wrap my head around that one.
     
  38. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Mils

    Mils One of Us

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    Let's hope!!!!
     
  42. ojisan

    ojisan station master Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not really that cold in Osaka at the moment
     
  43. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us

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    Looking forward to bringing live on the ground obs from 28th at madarao/not/myoko
     
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  44. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    2ft+ at Naeba, 3ft + at Kagura over the next 10 days......ECMWF.
    Giddy up!!!
     
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  45. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Looks like a friggen bullseye on Hakuba. Giddy up. On slopes 26th for warmup before the beast hits. Wooooo.
     
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  46. Syazwan

    Syazwan First Runs

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    Wohoo.. I just booked 3 nights near Hakuba Goryu Ski Resort and canceled my Yokohama 3 nights away from Tokyo.
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the Hakuba bullseye is height related.
    Cause the FL does look high.... And the direction of the moisture. Marginal.
    It's going to rain. Snow above 2000 at first.
     
  48. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    Should Shiga Kogen do okay because of the extra height? (I know different areas benefit from different weather systems)
     
  49. mannyk

    mannyk One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shiga is snowing now...looks like it will do well
     
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  50. Nozawaman

    Nozawaman A Local

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    20cms at 1100 here
    1 more good dump and most of the mountain will be on
     
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