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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.
Trend ain't too good sorry people.
What happened to the systems people were mentioning earlier in the thread?
Luckily I’m not on snow until the beginning of February so anything could have happened by then.
Australian style prefrontal rain?
Just warm and bad shapes
Hokkaido as well?
Hokkaido looks ok
Been non-epic so far in Honshu, eg...
Monday we might see something.
Well I’d like some good shapes for Christmas please
is that New years system a no go now?
getting genuinely concerned about the state of madarao over jan 14-17 at this point :/
Yep, looking like the dreaded situation, which is very limited slopes available during the Japanese holidays. They start on Dec 28. There'll be very long lift lines to ride a few thin pistes covered with people. You might have seen photos a couple of years ago of the queue for Happo's Skyline lift extending most of the way up that cat track. There's still time for something big to turn up during the New Year holiday, but it's looking very unlikely by the start.
The driest December on record in Nozawa was 120mm of precip. With 10 days to go, it's currently on 38mm.
GFS has two different runs:
00 & 12, and 06 & 18.
If you happen to look at one lot, then later at the other, they will look different.
You know that it's becoming more accurate when the two runs align.
This is why you look at the long range forecast with some skepticism, unless they align that far out, which is not often. I usually say "if it turns out that way".
I never make any long range bookings before the middle of January, and there's a reason for that.
We all want it to look like this soon.
Nozawa, 2. January many years ago:
World you consider Jan 14-17 safe? The words driest December on record has me a wee bit concerned....
I'm not concerned about mid January at this stage.
GFS for 1st-3rd Jan seem to align for both 06 & 12, which recently, hasn't been the case 11 days out.
They both show a very cold outbreak, with the 504 line at the central Japan resorts, and about 508 line around Tokyo. That would be unusually cold for Tokyo.
Yeah better shape this morning on the models.
I look at every one... Look for alignment on long-range control vs deterministic.
Looks snowy to me. Might have something to slide on.
I'll have a proper look after my morning coffee
End of the month back in a big way on GFS. Typical. I really don't know why I'm even looking at Japan weather systems. We're not even skiing there until the end of February at the earliest. Can't break the habit.
1st up, JMA says Hokkaido will be the place to be in January
Of course I'm skiing Honshu this year in January so lets look at the top of Naeba courtesy of yeah nah...
So plenty cold, just need the wind to be from the right direction at the right time. Won't be off the hook, but there will be snow to go and play in.
Snow Forecast is showing
Once again looking at Naeba
So there will be snow.
I'll be at the snow skiing.
There will be onsens.
Snow + skiing + onsens + beer = win (IMO).
I’m not worried. There will be snow to ski on from the moment we arrive on the 29th, with more pouring in over the 3 weeks we are there.
I checked @DidSurfNowSki maths. S + S + O + B = win. Formulae is sound.
Maybe B O S S?
Latest models indicate that the switch might really flick on around new years eve (honshu)
Yeah better shape on EC.
I'm not so sure its a switch as such. Too many lows coming up from taiwan .
It is puking snow that instantly melts around Matsumoto. At higher elevation should be getting decent amount. Not sure where this is from but I am guessing Mt Norikura should be getting some love.
Funny enough I just came back from skiing at Hakuba 47. Skis that you don’t mind skiing over rocks on recommended. Still it was skiing and thus enjoyable
Hey @Sandy. wanna come to LMB's when i am there
Karuizawa seems to be sneaky winner overnight. +20cm.
When are you there?
18 - 25th Jan.
(Peeps, you probably think this is Off topic, but I assure you it not!)
Well, if you believe the commentary below, it is going to snow
Yes I know you can't trust the forecasts this far out but #IWantToBelieve
Matches up with GFS this morning.
Yes, but snow-forecast is usually way off.
How about a nice meteogram using GFS ?
I feel like I need a 2 day course to wrap my head around that one.
Not really that cold in Osaka at the moment
Looking forward to bringing live on the ground obs from 28th at madarao/not/myoko
2ft+ at Naeba, 3ft + at Kagura over the next 10 days......ECMWF.
Looks like a friggen bullseye on Hakuba. Giddy up. On slopes 26th for warmup before the beast hits. Wooooo.
Wohoo.. I just booked 3 nights near Hakuba Goryu Ski Resort and canceled my Yokohama 3 nights away from Tokyo.
I think the Hakuba bullseye is height related.
Cause the FL does look high.... And the direction of the moisture. Marginal.
It's going to rain. Snow above 2000 at first.
Should Shiga Kogen do okay because of the extra height? (I know different areas benefit from different weather systems)
Shiga is snowing now...looks like it will do well
20cms at 1100 here
1 more good dump and most of the mountain will be on