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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Nov 23, 2019.
Heading there Jan 14 tell us how it's going!
Be there on the weekend for a day or so. Let's catch up. ..
Can everyone now relax.... last season started early and finished early. I was there mid feb and got rained on for the first time.
If history repeats Feb and March will be good for the later planners.
I find that the weather is mostly only relevant to the dates Im there, so once it starts there will always be snow to ski on. If I score a few powder days great. Sunny days great... Its up to the snow Gods..
Enjoy the season everyone.
See you in Yuzawa..
Amazing how much difference you get in three days of panic...
Unseasonably warm in Osaka today... USJ was crowded with Xmas revellers.
Few more days of the weather deciding what to do and then right on cue... NYD looks like it signal winter proper with 8 degrees the forecast high.
EC 2am Friday - 2am Sat.
EPS Ensembles are also solid on this event. Temps could be a bit dicey though.
Not where I'm heading, IMO
Naeba. Base level 900m, Top 1790m.
Freeze Levels for the next 10 days (ECMWF)
Any rain on the 30th will mean nothing.
26th = FL 1200 -1400m
27th = FL 1400 - 100m
28th = FL 100m - 300m
29th = FL 300m - 800m
30th = FL 800m - 2000m
31st = FL 2000m - 200m
1st = FL 200m - 600m
2nd = FL 600m - 300m
3rd = FL 300m - 200m
4th = FL 200m = 300m
If anything the forecast is better today IMO. Naeba looking at 3ft+ over this period. Kagura more!!!
Rain then snow in the next day or so, and could be big if the temp drops fast enough. Anywhere from 10 to 40cm plus on the ground possible by Friday night down low at the Nagano resorts. A good one to take notes and test your favourite model with.
Likely to be a fair bit of a Wintery mix, graupel and the odd ice pellet also imo.
seems to be snowing up high at TSG.
Temps lower in Hakuba than I thought
And so it begins
ECMWF had it changing fast on arrival..........Hakuba was forecast to be a little warmer so good.
Radar shows it 4 hrs away from the west
Temps heading in the right direction / think we are on from The beginning on this one
can’t wait to arrive in Madarao tomorrow and report a BIG dump - for now ramen and beer inTokyo
Zero Precipitation........no understand?
Hmmmm I did notice that - given the bulk of the moisture is not due to hit for a good few hours. My main concern was seeing the wind and temps start to head in the right direction
also the station updates hourly so maybe we will see a jump when it updates in 10 mins or so
No worries....heading in the right direction.
Silly Question: Which altitude winds are most relevant for tracking the sea effect etc? And presumably 'surface' winds are less relevant than say 2000m for areas like Shigakogen that are at altitude anyway?
best thing is to read sandy post on Japanese weather tutorial - wind direction is key to snow in japan is the basic take away.
Wind direction, temps, moisture etc etc.
EC Rapid 06 Z shows a bit more warm advection before the good stuff arrives. Temps and Dew Points are a bit marginal for the lower parts overnight.
Still raining at Hakuba. Good thing is I guess, there is nothing to wash away.
^this man is a glass half full kinda guy.
Here’s hoping it’s followed up with plenty of snow.
Altitude is not relevant: i.e. winds at 2000m elevation are not important, except for closing lifts. The effect needs cloud at low level, which then hits coastal hills starting the orographic lift process (rising moist air condenses leading to more cloud, and the air cools). When this hits the mountains, there's more orographic lift, more cloud, more cooling and more snow.
If there's cloud and wind at 2000m only, then the lake/sea effect doesn't really produce snow, because there's little or no orographic lift.
Wind is not in the right direction, and there's no lake /sea effect.
Best indicators of wind direction is not at Hakuba, because the mountains modify the wind.
Look at Kanazawa for the westerly, and Takada for the northerly.
Currently it's a light SW to westerly in those places (1am, 27th), and you can see why. It's associated with a low pressure trough in the Sea of Japan:
Checking the coast further west gives an indication of where the colder air is.
Check coastal towns further west in Tottori, Shimane, Yamaguchi & Fukuoka Prefectures.
You can currently(1am, 27th) only see lake/sea effect to the west of the Korean peninsular.
My forecast for the coming week in central Honshu (Northern Nagano & Niigata):
Fri 27th Jan: Rain at first below 1000m, decreasing to 500m by midday. Moderate snow above the freeze level on a WNW, easing later in the day. Freeze level 1100m, decreasing to 600m by midday and 100m by evening.
Sat 28th Jan: Snow showers clearing. Freeze level 200m, rising to 400m during the day.
Sun 29th Jan: Mostly sunny with a very light wind. Freeze level 500m, rising to 800m.
Mon 30th Jan: Clear, at first, with increasing cloud and a little rain developing in the evening. Freeze level 1500m rising to 2000m.
Tue 31st Jan: Rain persisting in the morning, turning to heavy snow after lunch. Moderate westerly winds in the morning turning to a strong NNW in the afternoon, easing in the evening. Freeze level 1700m, decreasing quickly to 0m by mid afternoon. Cold.
Wed 1st Jan: Snow easing to snow showers overnight, and becoming isolated in the morning. Freeze level 700m.
Thu 2nd Jan: Snow showers developing overnight and persisting during the day on a NNW, shifting to NW and becoming lighter. Freeze level 500m, decreasing to 0m.
Outlook (subject to change)
Fri 3rd Jan: Light to moderate snow persisting, particularly near the coast. Freeze level 0m
Sat 4th Jan: Light to moderate snow persisting, particularly near the coast, pushing further inland during the day with moderate falls. Fresh NNW winds. Freeze level 0m, cold.
Sun 5th Jan: Moderate snow persisting on a fresh NNW wind. Freeze level 0m.very cold.
Mon 6th Jan: Snow easing on an easing NNW. Freeze level 0m. Cold
Tue 7th Jan: a few snow showers clearing in the afternoon. Freeze level 500m rising to 1300m in the evening.
Wed 8th Jan: Clear at first, with a little rain developing in the afternoon below 1000m, decreasing to 600m in the evening. Freeze level 1200m, decreasing to 700m.
Thu 9th Jan: A little rain persisting below 800m, turning to snow in the evening. Freeze level 900m, decreasing to 0m.
Fri 10th Jan: Heavy snow easing to moderate in the afternoon, on a moderate NNW wind. Freeze level 0m.
Sat 11th Jan: Snow showers persisting in the morning, easing in the afternoon. Freeze level 0m, rising to 600m.
And now we see the issue with snowforecast.com.
It loves to hype these types of storms.
Ok, so Matsue has dropped from 8.9C to 7.0 in one hour, with 2.5mm of rain.
Still raining in Hakuba, approx 800m. Hoping up top has converted the overnight precipitation into snow.
My estimate is that it's snow from 100-200m below the top of the Happo gondola
Snow up top at Hakuba:
2 pm (Aust time) 850 hPa temps and Dew points
Tsugaike reporting 52cm up top.
Edit: Could be snow base. Maybe. This is from google translate.
Original from FB:
The current snowfall event:
31st December event after some rainfall:
It eases but the snowfall continues through to the 3rd and 4th:
And it continues with the help of a low pushing back towards Japan’s east towards the 5th and 6th:
The snow looks pretty constant for Central Honshu after the 31st.
Satellite Water Vapour previous 2 hours showing a bit of warm advection persisting and now slightly improving.
Thnx @Sandy, much appreciated
Just turned to wet flakes at 800m - Hakuba.
Here is another edition of my Japanese long range snow forecast:
Improving conditions for snowfall over the next few days.
A good opening 10 days of January for snowfall.
Then a weaker than normal mid-January (second and third weeks of January)
Details in link above.
Togakushi reporting 40 cm according to their Instagram page
The 52cm at Tsugaike is snowdepth. It says only the upper part of Han no Ki is rideable. I think that's the flattish one to skiers right off the gondola.
The wind has swung round to a northerly, and very light graupel is falling at the moment. Fingers crossed for some goods from the north to come through. It looks quite promising on the JMA precip animation.
Snowing heavily at Happo One and Hakuba 47.
Yeah, coming down good now!
Thing of beauty - weather is amazing.
go get em sea effect snow
Definitely lake/sea effect happening now, both off the Asian mainland, and off Japan and out into the Pacific.