The season is along way off, but here is the new snow season thread. So far it's been been quite wet rainy season, and a bit warmer than normal. And floods in Kyushu.
Do we dare mention the Siberian Heatwave and impacts on NH Sea Ice extent. Surely to have lasting effects climatically for coming season.
It makes no difference, IMO. It's too far off. And the rainy season is normal every year, so while it's very wet in SW Japan, it's not super unusual.
Hi Sandy, thank you for your reply. as per my experience, (mainly related to Europe) those seasons that recorded floods, had very abundant and early snowfalls. is there a connection between plentiful rains and unusually big snowfalls?
Yes, a few years ago, there was a "heat wave" late in the year, and that tended to block the northerlies off Siberia in the early season. So IMO, it DOES have an impact on the snow season, depending on timing.
No connection with the rainy season. The Japanese rainy season is caused by a stationary boundary(cooler north, warmer south) that starts off south of Taiwan in around March/April. It moves slowly north across southern China until it hits Japan (and same latitude in eastern China). Starts early June in SW Japan, and moves north, hitting Tokyo about the 3rd week in June. It then continues to move north until it hits northern temperate systems, which dissipates the boundary about mid/late July. It appears again for about a week in September. 4th June 2018 24th June 2018 29th June 2018
The mystics at the JMO released their 3 month predictions today. As usual they are erring on the warm side until October and (apropos of nothing as far as I can tell) predicting an average November. What caught my eye in the accompanying explanation is that the jet stream is once again expected to get stuck north of its usual route, which has been a feature of the late autumns of the last 2 years (and pisspoor last winter). The summer has peaked and temperatures are starting to think of heading downwards... it's nice to think that the first signs of winter will be appearing in a couple of months. Sept - Oct- Nov. The redder the colour, the higher the confidence of warmer than ave.
I knew you would say that! Still if it's up here we can look back in Dec and see if they got it right or not. Either the JMO deletes its own past long range forecasts or hides them so well I've never been able to find them, so always difficult to check after the event.
