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Japan The Japanese snow season 2020-2021 Weather

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Sandy, Sep 18, 2020.

  1. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    You are much more level headed than me. I always hope for it, nothing better than riding powder on the piste with zero crowds! Spring has been good for this the past 2 years.

    Anyone know when the next season prediction is released?
     
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't trust those JMA forecasts..... ;)
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I give them a 40% chance of being 65% correct.
     
  4. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    I know, but I just love getting my hopes up. I especially love the local method such as the height of ants nests on the trees, or how wet the summer was = how much snow will fall. What else am I missing?

    Is it bad that I have some satisfaction to see the same person who predicted a very low snow year sweating it out shovelling snow as I walk up to the gondola?
     
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  5. Asama

    Asama Addicted

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    A flurry of new record high temps for November over the last couple of days (indicated by the black squares).
    Overnight temps Thurs-Fri were basically late summer/early autumn temps. Settling back to a more normal weather pattern from today.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. skichanger

    skichanger A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    My transkator said it was 28 at Joetsu.
     
  8. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    November has been pretty mild although I haven't checked the records I just haven't felt the real cold and miserable November that we usually suffer at this time of year. The switch gets flicked on Thursday I reckon and the big heaters at home will get turned on. A bit of snow over the weekend and the nw flows seem to back up every few days for a the next couple of weeks. Fingers crossed there will be enough for the lifts to start turning.
    I don't really rate the long term forecasts for Japan. There are so many micro climates going on throughout even just this region that I think it makes it unpredictable. All you need is one big storm early in the season that dumps a couple of meters and all of a sudden the season will be good. You only have to look at the differences between one end of the valley to the other here in Hakuba. Time will tell. Regardless of if it is a good or bad snowfall year, with the lack of crowds here it will be an exceptional year.
     
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  9. Asama

    Asama Addicted

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    I actually feel like we've overall been having a more solid descent into winter compared to the last couple of warm autumns - October in particular ended up being rather cool here (against expectations). We had a series of decent frosts before the start of November whereas in recent years the clammy air has tended to hang around through October and prevent decent cooling. November likewise started cold and with a few flakes of snow, which makes the past week of warm weather feel more like a blip than a trend. This is totally subjective though and may reflect my state of mind as much as it does the actual data...
     
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  10. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    Looking forward to having the flexibility to travel wherever the snow will be good this winter. Hokkaido forecast looking very winter like this week. Central Honshu, not so much..
     
  11. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi TJ,

    Mini Bump: do you mean from the Northern (Cortina) end to the South (Tokyo/inland) end?

    Having been to Hakuba this Feb and witnessed the ‘below-average’ cover, I’m very interested in the local effects and which parts do well/ not so well.

    I can testify that in Feb 2020, H47/Goryu base seemed to fare better than Happo (lower, broader, sunnier?). Tsugaike base seemed midway btn the other two? In fact considering how broad and sunny the lower slopes are Tsugaike’s cover was remarkable.

    Maybe I fluked it on the two days I was there at TK (it had snowed the night before both times); where as staying near Happo, I got to experience skiing after heavy rain - the joy!! :eek::rolleyes: Still beat Buller or Baw Baw slop by a long shot! :cool:
     
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    When skiing at Hakuba in a normal February, elevation is not the issue, because all places have a lot of snow. You then need to pick the best fall of snow on a given wind direction.
    See the Japan tutorial on the weather Forum.
     
  13. TJ

    TJ One of Us

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    Yep you are correct for last year. Many of the storms coming through were from the south/sw and tend to bring warmer temps so top of Goryu/47 was fine and had a good base. On a usual year we get more of a northerly flow which then sees Cortina copping a blasting. You can actually see the sea of Japan from the top of Cortina so it just comes straight into the valley from there. You can have 2 cms in Echoland and people thinking there's not much snow but 40 cms has dropped at Cortina. Local knowledge helps.
    Snowing down in the valley now :)
     
  14. Crispy013

    Crispy013 One of Us

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    Also one of the biggest misconceptions in the valley is that when it dumps hard, Cortina does the best which isn’t the case a lot of the time.

    Wind direction is key.
     
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  15. Jacksong

    Jacksong Addicted

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    After that nice snowfall yesterday, the Hakuba outlook is quite warm:

    I have been using Tenki for weather at base level: https://tenki.jp/forecast/3/23/4810/20485/10days.html

    And snowforecast for mountain forecasts.

    It looks like Hakuba at town level will still be mild up until at least December 10 (getting below zero at night).