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Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Hermon, Dec 1, 2017.
It's looking like a fizzer for most of Vic...
It’s windy in Jindy. 80km gusts at Thredbo top.
For Le Tap riders, I'll just leave this here...
Here's a close up.
I’m about to drop $200 on a rain jacket. That should ensure it fizzes.
and wind possibilies.
I'm on the jetski for water safety 7-11 am. .
here's a bit higher up. 750m
this not going to fizz.
as the boys have been commenting it's a matter of where the localised cells let loose the big precip.
the winds look to be going to vary in strength and more so direction as this system evolves.
Consistently over last couple of days it has been the Alps looking to get some real treatment.
Pre-event fizz. Tough call.
Lots of activity across the paddocks. Crows in a flap, sugar ants busy fortifying their nests, sunny to the East with clouds slowly building from the South and Southwest across the Alps and the wind has picked up. Somethings brewing somewhere......the ants are never wrong.
How funny. I just noticed a nest outside too.
I'll have to laugh if it's the biggest fizzer since the Y2K bug ....
Bears say watch the white cockatoos....if they are all hanging around the bakery in Mt Beauty...it's a predictive tool of great weight...it means horrendous conditions are comming.
Caroline Springs getting some moderately heavy rain now.Perhaps team leader may make enquires shortly in regard to umbrellas.Surrounded by cute little lakes around here...which may be somewhat of a problem should 60mm fall.At least we can expect those oil slicks on roadway to be less of a problem come Monday.
Jane has backed off in line with the models suggesting 50-100MM for the Melbourne Metro with possible higher falls. Eastern VIC still going to cop it with 200mm+
Building over the mountains and wind is ramping up.
That's how it looked after the model runs yesterday afternoon.
I think we'll struggle to get more than 100mm in the metro area. The BOM seem confident though.
Anything over 50-60mm is plenty, but then of course everybody in the metro area will talk about it being a fizzer.
The real action is on and north of the Divide and all the stream rises that will probably eventuate.
Haha. Drop the last zeros and it would be more accurate here.
What part of 3 day event are you missing.
Look at axsr.
You'll get some bloody rain!
I'm never one to go on the extreme numbers, but it's a solid event and just beginning.
Its the combination of the totals and how widespread it is ....get the kayaks ready, there will be some pretty impressive flows in all of the alpine rivers in all directions.
@janesweather has been busy, a neat little tool for the EC fanatics our there:
Meteye FTW @Ralph_Plow, @robbo mcs , @chicski
If they cut out the Rocky Road bit like they said, cycle from Jindy straight to Berridale and get most of the riders finished by midday then it's doable.
I dunno where this lives but given it’s 1st December...
Wind might slow us down a bit! Car is rocking in Bullocks car park. There’s a nice big outside area in the car park where you can leave your bike overnight. If you dare.
Current LWT plot shows how much impact this ridge is having on the long wave.
between the ants, the cockatoos and the bears, I guess that's the forecast
Yeah, a real fizzer.
Heavier but brief rain in Caroline Springs ...street gutters like little rivers for short time....fire engine went flying through the Main Street just to raise levels of excitement !!i
Latest GFS is interesting
For Eastern Vic. It had 30mm forecast for us today 24hrs ago, and we got 10% of that.
thought you were in Bendigo, hardly east
Falls Creek only up to approx 65mm....Eildon Fire Tower around 50mm approx ......
Wang and Wodonga seemed to have fallen below the expected rainfall predictions...
There's still Saturday and Sunday to come.
Yes, but I think they might do ok tomorrow. Unlike the west of the state which will barely get anything overnight.
Lucky Bendigos in the centre then I guess.
Bendigo. Aboriginal for weather doughnut
Stay on topic.
Bendigo summer donut* observation thread?
I note Bendigo 22.2mm since 9am
I observe that it was raining steadily at Jindy at 4am.
I also observe that instead of heading to l'etape my car somehow ended back up in Canberra. Not sure how that happened.
Heavy rain through Cooma. Car aquaplaned a few times. Now soaking rain in Canberra.
Wednesday looks interesting, earlier models had it going west into the bass strait than directly south over northern Tas. New models have it only getting this far and then going east. I wonder if Tassie will get anything from this system?
I notice Bendigo is in the centre of the donut of 18Z GFS rainfall forecast
Latest (18z) GFS looks ominous for the SE again.
It's progging a doozey of a almost-bombing low. Cyclonic if it comes off.
It's got every chance with +5C anoms in the SST's off the coast there.
EC is only partly interested.
healthy looking line.
EC 00Z 72hrs-102 eastcoast low.
on board with GFS.
Upper level cold pool lingers over the South East for the next 2-3 days.
A slim chance of a dusting early tomorrow morning in the upper reaches of the Main Range tonight and tomorrow night with diurnal minimums.