Mega Thread The officially, official Summer Weather thread!

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Hermon, Dec 1, 2017.

  1. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It's looking like a fizzer for most of Vic...
     
  2. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s windy in Jindy. 80km gusts at Thredbo top.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ah, no.
     
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  4. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Le Tap riders, I'll just leave this here...

     
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  5. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here's a close up.
     
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  6. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m about to drop $200 on a rain jacket. That should ensure it fizzes.
     
  7. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and wind possibilies.
    I'm on the jetski for water safety 7-11 am. .
    [​IMG]
    here's a bit higher up. 750m
    [​IMG]
    and 1500m
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    this not going to fizz.
    as the boys have been commenting it's a matter of where the localised cells let loose the big precip.
    the winds look to be going to vary in strength and more so direction as this system evolves.
    Consistently over last couple of days it has been the Alps looking to get some real treatment.
     
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  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pre-event fizz. Tough call.
     
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  10. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of activity across the paddocks. Crows in a flap, sugar ants busy fortifying their nests, sunny to the East with clouds slowly building from the South and Southwest across the Alps and the wind has picked up. Somethings brewing somewhere......the ants are never wrong. :emoji_ant:



     
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  11. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    How funny. I just noticed a nest outside too.
     
  12. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I'll have to laugh if it's the biggest fizzer since the Y2K bug ....
     
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  13. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bears say watch the white cockatoos....if they are all hanging around the bakery in Mt Beauty...it's a predictive tool of great weight...it means horrendous conditions are comming.
    Caroline Springs getting some moderately heavy rain now.Perhaps team leader may make enquires shortly in regard to umbrellas.Surrounded by cute little lakes around here...which may be somewhat of a problem should 60mm fall.At least we can expect those oil slicks on roadway to be less of a problem come Monday.
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane has backed off in line with the models suggesting 50-100MM for the Melbourne Metro with possible higher falls. Eastern VIC still going to cop it with 200mm+
     
  15. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Building over the mountains and wind is ramping up.
     
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  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's how it looked after the model runs yesterday afternoon.
    I think we'll struggle to get more than 100mm in the metro area. The BOM seem confident though.
     
  18. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anything over 50-60mm is plenty, but then of course everybody in the metro area will talk about it being a fizzer.
    The real action is on and north of the Divide and all the stream rises that will probably eventuate.
     
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  19. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Crikey.
    What part of 3 day event are you missing.
    Look at axsr.
    You'll get some bloody rain!

    I'm never one to go on the extreme numbers, but it's a solid event and just beginning.
     
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  21. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its the combination of the totals and how widespread it is ....get the kayaks ready, there will be some pretty impressive flows in all of the alpine rivers in all directions.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meteye FTW @Ralph_Plow, @robbo mcs , @chicski








    If they cut out the Rocky Road bit like they said, cycle from Jindy straight to Berridale and get most of the riders finished by midday then it's doable.
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I dunno where this lives but given it’s 1st December...
     
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  26. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind might slow us down a bit! Car is rocking in Bullocks car park. There’s a nice big outside area in the car park where you can leave your bike overnight. If you dare.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Current LWT plot shows how much impact this ridge is having on the long wave.
    [​IMG]
     
  28. person s

    person s Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    between the ants, the cockatoos and the bears, I guess that's the forecast
     
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  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Yeah, a real fizzer.
     
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  30. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heavier but brief rain in Caroline Springs ...street gutters like little rivers for short time....fire engine went flying through the Main Street just to raise levels of excitement !!i
     
  31. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Latest GFS is interesting
    [​IMG]
     
  32. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    For Eastern Vic. It had 30mm forecast for us today 24hrs ago, and we got 10% of that.
     
  33. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    thought you were in Bendigo, hardly east
     
  34. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Falls Creek only up to approx 65mm....Eildon Fire Tower around 50mm approx ......o_O

    Wang and Wodonga seemed to have fallen below the expected rainfall predictions...:(
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's still Saturday and Sunday to come.
     
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  36. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yes, but I think they might do ok tomorrow. Unlike the west of the state which will barely get anything overnight.
     
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  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lucky Bendigos in the centre then I guess.
     
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  38. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bendigo. Aboriginal for weather doughnut
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bendigo summer donut* observation thread?

    *Sic
     
  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note Bendigo 22.2mm since 9am
     
  42. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I observe that it was raining steadily at Jindy at 4am.

    I also observe that instead of heading to l'etape my car somehow ended back up in Canberra. Not sure how that happened.

    Heavy rain through Cooma. Car aquaplaned a few times. Now soaking rain in Canberra.
     
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  44. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Wednesday looks interesting, earlier models had it going west into the bass strait than directly south over northern Tas. New models have it only getting this far and then going east. I wonder if Tassie will get anything from this system?
     

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  45. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I notice Bendigo is in the centre of the donut of 18Z GFS rainfall forecast ;)
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest (18z) GFS looks ominous for the SE again.
    It's progging a doozey of a almost-bombing low. Cyclonic if it comes off.

    It's got every chance with +5C anoms in the SST's off the coast there.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    EC is only partly interested.
     
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  47. stormhunter

    stormhunter Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    healthy looking line.

    [​IMG]
     
  48. stormhunter

    stormhunter Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    EC 00Z 72hrs-102 eastcoast low.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    on board with GFS.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upper level cold pool lingers over the South East for the next 2-3 days.
    A slim chance of a dusting early tomorrow morning in the upper reaches of the Main Range tonight and tomorrow night with diurnal minimums.
     
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