Mega Thread The officially, official Summer Weather thread!

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Hermon, Dec 1, 2017.

  1. sbm_

    sbm_ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Little off-topic, but I found it very interesting. What kind of a localised weather event could be intense enough rip down hundreds of old-growth trees, but be limited to such a small area? (In part 3 they run a numerical weather model at only 444m resolution to help support their hypothesis!)

    Part 1

    Part 2

    Part 3
     
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  2. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It's looking very green from photos I've seen.

    Anyway, some hint of rain for us in the first week of March. It'll probably disappear in the next model run:
    http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds very similar to the great storm that flattened a swathe of forest in the High Tatras, Northern Slovakia in 2004. A combo of Mountains and Microbursts.
     
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  4. Kayden

    Kayden Hard Yards

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    Also reminds me of the Tunguska event, except on a smaller scale.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wasn't that a meteorite though? Kenetic impact is probs a bit different.
     
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  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep. Meteorite explosion, quite unrelated IMO.
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS - Some 540 action for Tassie on 24th. A sweep of below zero - at 850 also. Hmmm could be an ACE weekend in the highlands after all.:nerd:
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models keep bumping it around a bit but yep. Looking good.
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep, the remains of Kelvin.
    Looks like Victoria should get some rainfall Saturday afternoon too.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
     
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  11. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Awesome day here in Mt Beauty. The morning was crisp but warmed up quickly. I drove over the high plains to Glen Wills and Anglers Rest to be met with cloudy and cold misty rain.
    I bet all those crazy cyclists riding up from the Omeo Valley Hwy would have welcome those conditions
     
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  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty bad again in NZ
    Two ex TC's hitting the same place a month apart.
    Thats unheard of
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Last one impacted west coast of both North and South Island.
    This one is affecting Cook strait - Nelson, Welly and Marlborough Sounds as well
     
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is actually a small low in cook strait as well.
    seems to be whipping into the oncoming storm.
     
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  15. _JoeWest_

    _JoeWest_ Early Days

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    x kelvin

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice plots but lacking enumerated reference table to facilitate easy interpretation.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models coming into alignment for 24/25th. Snow down to ~1100m in parts of Tas, the way I see it. A few cms possible IMO.
    All over by Sunday AM.

    Heavy falls through Friday/Saturday thanks to Ex TC Kelvin.
     
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  18. _JoeWest_

    _JoeWest_ Early Days

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    They are just runs with the' hint' of the moisture being transported poleward from the now rain depression. No need to explain the potential for flash flooding along the
    projected swave until it's dissipation.
     
  19. _JoeWest_

    _JoeWest_ Early Days

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    Likely some hail no,no,no snow. Hey K what's the mb on those plots you are posting.
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    mb ?
     
  21. _JoeWest_

    _JoeWest_ Early Days

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    hpa on the pool k
    ..................................................................................................................................................................................


    on another note regarding a different post.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Highlights some variability in the runs.
     
    #1672 POW_hungry, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  23. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope so, awfully dry around us.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [mod note] keep the personal insults out of here.
    We're allowed a difference in opinion, but when it involves attacking other posters it's not acceptable.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS. Cold pool further South but reasonable low pressure and CAPE potential. EC not quite on the same page but it is Feb.
     
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  26. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Turned into a nice day in Melbourne after a lot of gloom this morning. No rain to be seen at all.... though it is warm and humid in the sun, not a pleasant time if you're walking longer than 10 mins or so...
     
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  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a pleasant time pruning olives either.
    Views pleasant least, though looks like it's brewing across the bay to the west...
     
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  28. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Being in a suit was unpleasant, I'll tell you.
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    QLD in for a bit of rain.

    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM have issued a road weather alert for tonight and early tomorrow morning.
    I guess that's more of a reflection of the dry period we've had rather than the amount of rain we'll get?
     
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  31. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    How much we get depends on which dome you live under. If this event doesn't produce the goods I think we're staring down the barrel of another failed wet season.
     
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  32. Mr. Mook

    Mr. Mook One of Us

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    Just noticed today there has been so little rain that the lines I painted on our sports field for the athletics carnival are still visible.
    I painted them last July and they normally are completely gone in less than 3 months.
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    They're only models. If it doesn't fall where it's really needed namely in the catchments, it's pretty pointless really.
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should get a bit IMO. Mixing ratio- Grams of Vapour per kilo of dry air. The best of the CAPE is further North and off the coast but looks to be good available moisture.
     
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  36. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay, this La Nina is a joke right?
    We have had 3 (THREE) rain showers in Hornsby since December 6th.
    A total of 35mm.
    Dead native plants, everywhere. Dead grass. Dead weeds (can you believe it)!
    Hello?
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    February 2011
     
  38. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    What?...The floods were in January, weren't they?
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney Feb 2011 - 18 mm
     
  40. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    So much for the rain overnight here in Melbourne. Next to nothing really.
     
  43. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A "Bendigo shower"?
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    :D pretty much.
     
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  45. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't believe it was ever a true LaNina, only ever borderline with a marginal chance of some extra rainfall in certain locations...
     
  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I observe it's very dry and dusty around Canberra at the moment.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW up for strong winds over the Vic Alps on Saturday.

    Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of East Gippsland, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:15 am Friday, 23 February 2018.

    Strengthening northerly winds ahead of a cold front, expected to cross Victoria during Saturday.

    DAMAGING WINDS averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected to develop over Alpine areas during Saturday morning. Winds are expected to ease during Saturday night.

    Locations which may be affected include Corryong, Mt Baw Baw, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller and Omeo.
     
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  48. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of light rain coming into Melbourne at the moment
     
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  49. _JoeWest_

    _JoeWest_ Early Days

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  50. skifree

    skifree grey Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I make the same observation about Exeter SA.