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The Parting of the Storms

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Legs Akimbo, Dec 17, 2020.

  1. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    I live at Port Stephens, a decent sized body of water a couple of hundred ks north of Sydney. For a while I have been watching storms track towards me As they get near the Port they fizzle out and I get only a few drops of rain. 2 have done it today, and it is a fairly regular event. Obviously some hit but the rate of fizzling is significant.

    Am I dreaming with some sort of confirmation bias, or is there some mechanism that diverts storms around water bodies or defuses them? If it is real, what's going on? I'd be surprised if it's some temperature differential effect as the ocean is only about 5 km away, but anything is possible. The terrain is flat for a few 10s of kilometres in all directions.
     
    Claude Cat and skifree like this.
  2. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    As a more than occasional visitor over many years I'd say there is some sort of topographic steering influence or diffusion type effect happening from the west. I observe similar on the south coast where in some parts the topography runs closer to ocean (more storms) versus where there are extended flat sections (less storms).
    In summary I reckon Port Stephens does ok for rainfall out of bog standard southerly changes and easterly coastal drizzle but only occasionally do W-NW storms hit.
     
    piolet likes this.
  3. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    My two cents’ worth, an accurate valuation?

    The sea breeze often kills storms, interposing a layer of cooler, stable air between the ground and any convection. Also, from what I can see, storms tend to favour higher ground.

    I’m not familiar with the Port Stephens area, but in Sydney it’s common to see storms develop on the Tablelands, move Eastwards and fall apart in Sydney’s outer West (which is near sea level). Sometimes they get closer to the coast to get done in by the sea breeze. Sometimes you see storms jump over Sydney, redeveloping out to sea.

    Storms seem to do better on the Illawarra and Central Coast, maybe because there is high ground (300 metres+) close to the coast.

    It’s all determined by the complex 3-dimensional dynamics of the atmosphere and its interaction with land and sea - all beyond me.
     
    Claude Cat and MegaMatch like this.
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Tracking from which direction.?
     
  5. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    Today, west and south west.
     
  6. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly did that tonight.
     
  7. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Eddy

    Eddy One of Us

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    I know how you feel Legs Akimbo, happens frequently enough, but in saying that we do get our fair share of beauties.
    The last few years storms have been ordinary around here, but imo this year is one of the better ones for storm activity even if they have split south or north of us or even died on our footsteps there still have been some great structure and lightning displays.
    I captured these images from the 17th
    From memory they came from more of a WNW direction.
    Early development.
    [​IMG]IMG_2580 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
    Getting organised
    [​IMG]IMG_2614 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

    [​IMG]IMG_2640 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

    [​IMG]IMG_2654 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

    Certainly nothing severe about this storm, although I wouldn't be surprised of falls of 30-50mm west of town, I received about 20mm, also from memory there were storms the following day but they mainly affected north of the Port, Bulahdelah, Myall lakes into Forster area.

    Plenty of nice images coming out from this morning's storm around 4am, no images from me unfortunately, too many beers from the previous night, wasn't going to risk my license.
     
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  9. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Surely theres a historical plot of storm tracks?
    I'd love to see one
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does it still happen when you’re not there?
     
  11. Joshua Randazzo

    Joshua Randazzo First Runs

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    since you said sea breeze kills storms... just have to mention this: the great Sydney hailstorm of 1947 was fuelled by the north east sea breeze. yes the sea breeze can kill storms but on some days like on new year's day 1947 it can intensify storms and increases rotation.

    The story of the 1947 sydney supercell: on new year's day 1947 a storm cell formed in the morning over blue mountains hitting the city and eastern suburbs at around 2:30pm. this storm was a freak of nature due to the size of the hail that fell on sydney's eastern beaches.
    people sunbathing at bondi beach were subjected to hail larger than 8cm and a ww2 veteran described the event like he was in the firing line over seas.

    The High humidity of the day and sydney weather patterns increased the strength of the storm with the bom noting how the storm had a very peculiar formotion over liverpool
    The Storm type was a classic supercell.

    Giant hail mashing down in the water at rose bay in sydney's eastern suburbs.

    tis supercell was most intense over the eastern suburbs of sydney which is rare.
     
    whether likes this.
  12. person s

    person s Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    some years ago I lived at Gladesville
    Sydney persons would know that the three bridges there cross over the Parramatta River, Tarban Creek and Lane Cove River
    driving home over the big bridge in the afternoon, there were often clear differences between the weather on the Drummoyne side and where I was headed on the Gladesville side, as well as leading up to the Lane Cove area
    most commonly it was rain on one side, no rain on the other
    I attributed this to the influence of the rivers and the creek - not having the slightest idea why it would happen