The Real Estate Thread - Snowy Mountains Edition.

SMSkier

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Kicking off this thread. There’s so much rapid change going on with real estate prices, lack of accommodation for local folks and seasonal workers etc.

Current sales are off the scale with property selling prior to auction and examples in that scenario; of going for $500,000 above reserve. Just a home on 7 acres. It’s crazy.

Took a quick look and Henley Property has 27 residential properties listed. Just one of several local agents.

Near my farm, a home sold for 2.93MM prior to auction. That’s just madness and I wonder (not that it matters I guess) where the money is coming from.

Don’t know how young local folk will ever get into the marketplace at current prices.

And, even if there was a 20% correction at some point, the days of reasonably priced property around Jindabyne seem long gone.
 

Jonathan_P

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Kicking off this thread. There’s so much rapid change going on with real estate prices, lack of accommodation for local folks and seasonal workers etc.

Current sales are off the scale with property selling prior to auction and examples in that scenario; of going for $500,000 above reserve. Just a home on 7 acres. It’s crazy.

Took a quick look and Henley Property has 27 residential properties listed. Just one of several local agents.

Near my farm, a home sold for 2.93MM prior to auction. That’s just madness and I wonder (not that it matters I guess) where the money is coming from.

Don’t know how young local folk will ever get into the marketplace at current prices.

And, even if there was a 20% correction at some point, the days of reasonably priced property around Jindabyne seem long gone.
Given up on a snow change, crossed that off the bucket list:(

I am waiting for the bill shock for the pricing on holiday rentals next year, I think I may have to shorten our season somewhat.
 

SMSkier

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Property in Jindy generally on par with Thredbo now (if you can find something up there). It’s ludicrous.
 
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Billy_Buttons

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House rents have jumped by more than 20 per cent annually in Ballina and other councils area's on the NSW north coast. Photo: East Ballina

Rent prices continue to rise in NSW regional towns, pushing out locals​

Kate BurketwitterJournalist Oct 22, 2021

Rapidly rising rents across regional NSW are pricing tenants out of their communities, with the cost of renting a home jumping by more than 20 per cent in some regions as locals struggle to compete against tree-changers moving in on Sydney wages.
Rents across much of regional NSW have climbed at least twice as fast as those in Sydney, new Domain figures show, plunging some communities into rental crisis. Overcrowding and couch surfing were all on the rise, community organisations said.
In the Ballina council area, the median weekly asking rent for houses has jumped 25 per cent to $650 in the space of just 12 months.
Rents also rose by more than 20 per cent in the Snowy Monaro council region, and the north-coast council areas of Tweed, Bellingen, Coffs Harbour and Byron – which remains the most expensive regional market with a weekly median of $850 per week.
Another 27 regional council areas saw rents jump at least 10 per cent over the year to September. House rents in Greater Sydney, by comparison, rose 5.5 per cent to a record high of $580.
The spike in tree- and sea-change activity seen during the pandemic had driven up competition for rentals in regional markets, said Domain chief of research and economics Nicola Powell, compounded by an already limited supply caused by a surge in short-term holiday lets and, in some parts, the destructive bushfires in 2019 and 2020.
Rents had been rising at an “unsustainable” rate off the back of very low vacancy rates, Dr Powell said, pricing out locals who were unable to compete with those working remotely on Sydney-level wages.

LGAMedian weekly asking rentAnnual change
Ballina
$650​
25.00%​
Snowy Monaro Regional
$450​
23.30%​
Tweed
$678​
23.20%​
Bellingen
$515​
22.60%​
Byron
$850​
22.30%​
Coffs Harbour
$540​
20.00%​
Orange
$465​
19.20%​
Wingecarribee
$623​
18.60%​
Port Macquarie-Hastings
$510​
18.60%​
Federation
$355​
16.40%​
Source: Domain Rent Report, September quarter, 2021

Affordability constraints could reign in rapid rent rises in the months to come, Dr Powell said, noting medians in the Byron and Eurobodalla regions were coming off peaks reached earlier this year. Rising investor activity, and the return of some sea and tree changers to the cities, could also help ease upward pressure on regional rents, she added.
However, David Mills, a principal at McGrath’s offices in Ballina and Byron Bay, said he expected rents to push higher still, with another wave of out-of-area buyers and tenants likely to head north as restrictions were wound back. He felt any drop in the median was a reflection of the stock on the market, rather than a pullback in demand.
print-0231_vg4pyn.jpg
The median house rent in the Byron Shire is at $850.
Strong competition and rent rises in Byron Bay had rippled out to surrounding council areas as priced-out locals looked further afield, he said, putting upward pressure on rents in other areas. Standard homes were drawing strong interest, he added, with more than 20 applications made for three-bedroom houses in East Ballina this week.
“Probably a good third of those people offered above the asking price, or even to pay rent 12 months in advance just to improve their offer, and that’s all unsolicited from us,” he said.
Ballina chef Stephen Mills and his family spent more than four months searching for a new home after their landlord decided to sell the four-bedroom house they had been renting for about $650 per week. The family of six inspected at least 30 properties before securing a three-bedroom house with two garages – which they’ve converted into bedrooms.
“We had to think outside the box,” Mr Mills said. “When we first came here we rented a double-storey six-bedroom house for $500 a week brand new, and in the space of two or three years we’ve gone from that rental to paying $750 for a smaller, older home.”
ballina-manor-3_fv6mpd.jpg
Ballina’s median house rent has lifted 25 per cent to $650 per week. Photo: Supplied
The lack of affordable accommodation was making it harder for locals to stay put in the area, but also making it increasingly difficult for businesses to attract and retain staff, Mr Mills said.
It was a similar story In the Snowy Monaro region, Michael Henley, director of Henley Property, has seen tenants increasingly offering more than the advertised rents, and being prepared to pay up to six months in advance to secure a property.
An influx of workers for the construction of Snowy 2.0, and a rise in tree changers had created additional demand for the area – parts of which had been affected by bushfires in 2020, he said. There was also a higher proportion of shorter-term rentals in areas like Jindabyne, though more landlords had been making a move to the longer-term rental market as rents rose and yields improved.
22_d1n3go.jpg
House rents in the Snowy Monaro Regional Council area climbed 23.3 per cent over the year to a median of $450.
“We’ll get up to 20 or 30 applicants on some properties – at the moment we do have to let down a lot of people,” Mr Henley said, adding many Jinadbyne workers have had to move to Berridale, ultimately pushing up rents there as well.
Overcrowded housing and couch surfing were on the rise, and more people were seeking assistance from homelessness services, said Sarah Dybing, service director of community programs at Momentum Collective, which provides a range of support services in northern NSW. There had also been a rise in people accessing food banks, or seeking help to pay bills, with little funds left after paying rent.
“We’re supporting many people who have had rents raised dramatically or have got 90-day notices to move out of homes, and are then seeing the same homes advertised for hundreds of dollars more,” Ms Dybing said.
The influx of sea changers during the pandemic has exacerbated the region’s existing housing crisis, pushing more working-class people into inland areas, such as Lismore – where rents jumped almost 15 per cent over the year.
“Before COVID, we would have said that Tweed Heads, Byron Bay and Ballina were our acute stress areas, but we’re now seeing it across Lismore, Grafton and Casino as well,” she said. “It’s becoming tougher and tougher for people to stay and work in this area.”
Recently announced funding for women’s refuges and social and affordable housing by the state government was a step in the right direction, Ms Dybing said, but more investment in social and affordable housing would be needed to help solve the region’s housing crisis.


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WaitAwhile

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It’s more expensive than Canberra. Even more ludicrous. It’s a country town with limited services.
A lot of these cashed up buyers that are buying these Million $$ houses, don't want to live in Canberra .
They want to live in a pretty little rural town where they can maintain social distancing, engage in lots of activities without being surrounded by millions of other people.
And go skiing for 3-4 months of the year.
 

Jonathan_P

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A lot of these cashed up buyers that are buying these Million $$ houses, don't want to live in Canberra .
They want to live in a pretty little rural town where they can maintain social distancing, engage in lots of activities without being surrounded by millions of other people.
And go skiing for 3-4 months of the year.
And then go on to complain about the lack of services:rolleyes:

Jindy may need some fine dining restaurant options :)
 
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gareth_oau

Pool Room
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A lot of these cashed up buyers that are buying these Million $$ houses, don't want to live in Canberra .
They want to live in a pretty little rural town where they can maintain social distancing, engage in lots of activities without being surrounded by millions of other people.
And go skiing for 3-4 months of the year.
sounds like a perfect world to me
 

skichic

Old n' Crusty
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If rates continue to be applied according to GRV, then one would expect council rates to materially increase as well.

Hoipefully some of that will be pumped back into more services and growing infrastructure
GRV?

NSW rate peg means councils total rate revenue cannot increase more than the annual rate peg as set by IPART.
 

SnowBound

One of Us
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Interest rates will increase sooner or later - expect mayble 5 or 6% in 5 years time - who knows?

Rates like that on expensive lifestyle properties with debt will cause a contraction
Surely it won't jump that much.

2-3% I recon.

5-6% and a LOT of people will be farked.

Do more harm than good. They'll avoid 5-6% on purpose IMO.
 

dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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Oct 26, 2002
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A lot of these cashed up buyers that are buying these Million $$ houses, don't want to live in Canberra .
They want to live in a pretty little rural town where they can maintain social distancing, engage in lots of activities without being surrounded by millions of other people.
And go skiing for 3-4 months of the year.

This

Also heirloom cows, a pony and a lake that always has water in it.

A small point .... in a warming world move somewhere cooler :cool:

More Ozarks than Byron
 

Billy_Buttons

Part of the Furniture
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This

Also heirloom cows, a pony and a lake that always has water in it.

A small point .... in a warming world move somewhere cooler :cool:

More Ozarks than Byron
Want...

 

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Billy_Buttons

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If you want to get into the heads of property investors, this is the forum to read...

 

gareth_oau

Pool Room
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Surely it won't jump that much.

2-3% I recon.

5-6% and a LOT of people will be farked.

Do more harm than good. They'll avoid 5-6% on purpose IMO.
really hard to say. My first mortgage was 7.5% and we peaked at 17.5% beck in the 80s.

These days govt tends to use fiscal rather than monetary policy to try and control an economy, but interest rates are a great, quick fix. It also depends what happen in the US - if the US economy overheats and interest rates go up, then the RBA will be forced to keep ours higher to attract overseas cash into banks
 
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Billy_Buttons

Part of the Furniture
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really hard to say. My first mortgage was 7.5% and we peaked at 17.5% beck in the 80s.

These days govt tends to use fiscal rather than monetary policy to try and control an economy, but interest rates are a great, quick fix. It also depends what happen in the US - if the US economy overheats and interest rates go up, then the RBA will be forced to keep ours higher to attract overseas cash into banks
Our first mortgage on PPOR in 1987 was at 14.5% then rose to 17.5% in 1990 and slid down to 9.5% by 1994.
Second mortgage on next PPOR in 1995 was at 10.5%. and paid it off in 2006 at 7.5%.
 

piolet

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Legs Akimbo

Grumblebum
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Will be interesting to see where these sellers go and intend to downsize to.
The very old and true saying for Sydney is....once you sell out of Sydney, you can never get back in.
Quilpie


Some cheap stuff in Wilcannia too.
 
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SMSkier

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Will be interesting to see where these sellers go and intend to downsize to.
The very old and true saying for Sydney is....once you sell out of Sydney, you can never get back in.
Thredbo. It’s cheaper than Jindy now for a comparable property. :out:

I was chatting to someone nearby who just sold their property for good $$… They are coast bound. Reckon they can buy for about 700k less than they sold.

History says you can’t time the market…. My uninformed guess is that if 12 (midday is the top of the market) then it’s somewhere between 10 and 2. But it’s a guess and I’m not buying (yet) nor selling (yet).
 

climberman

CloudRide1000 Legend
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the sunny illawarra

climberman

CloudRide1000 Legend
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the sunny illawarra
Thredbo. It’s cheaper than Jindy now for a comparable property. :out:

I was chatting to someone nearby who just sold their property for good $$… They are coast bound. Reckon they can buy for about 700k less than they sold.

History says you can’t time the market…. My uninformed guess is that if 12 (midday is the top of the market) then it’s somewhere between 10 and 2. But it’s a guess and I’m not buying (yet) nor selling (yet).
You get to own property forever in Jindy though...
 

Billy_Buttons

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Thredbo. It’s cheaper than Jindy now for a comparable property. :out:

I was chatting to someone nearby who just sold their property for good $$… They are coast bound. Reckon they can buy for about 700k less than they sold.

History says you can’t time the market…. My uninformed guess is that if 12 (midday is the top of the market) then it’s somewhere between 10 and 2. But it’s a guess and I’m not buying (yet) nor selling (yet).
Coastal properties are going to the moon as well. The entire east coast is blowing up in parallel to Jindy.
BIL sold on central coast last November for $800k....house next door sold in May for $1.4M.
 

Telezacski

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Surely it won't jump that much.

2-3% I recon.

5-6% and a LOT of people will be farked.

Do more harm than good. They'll avoid 5-6% on purpose IMO.

Rates are already 2-3% if they jump 2-3% they will be at 5-6% which is about right if our inflation is over 4%.

banks are doing stress tests on loan approvals at mid 5s to 6% now

At the moment the banks are starting to increase fixed rates and decrease the variable rates so the increased buffer rate 3% from 2.5% doesn’t effect the floor or assessment rate.

We got an email from anz the other day with a table old rate new rate, old floor new floor (unchanged 5.1%) it was so blatant.

The issue with the floor rate assessments is they still require people to change discretionary spending as rates go up and a lot of people struggle with this.

As I said in the Jindy thread I see a lot of dark homes (lifestyle homes) being winter let as rates rise, this will place pressure on the rental market, reducing returns and prices will drop.
 

Telezacski

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Lots of very fast flipping going on.
Also, apparently lots of drug money laundering going into property atm. These are probably the fast flippers.
How is drug money going into property?

I’ve heard of dodgy developers paying trades cash using drug money; they look like they are developing at low cost per sqm.

But to buy property for cash is a lot harder now due to the electronic processing. The cash needs to be in a bank and KYC + VOI mean there are more identity checks along the way.

I had a customer short on cash for a settlement as funds hadn’t arrived into her account so I deposited cash to make the settlement go through and she paid me back a few days later. Let me tell you the questions at the bank were like I was in a royal commission.
 
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Billy_Buttons

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How is drug money going into property?

I’ve heard of dodgy developers paying trades cash using drug money; they look like they are developing at low cost per sqm.

But to buy property for cash is a lot harder now due to the electronic processing. The cash needs to be in a bank and KYC + VOI mean there are more identity checks along the way.

I had a customer short on cash for a settlement as funds hadn’t arrived into her account so I deposited cash to make the settlement go through and she paid me back a few days later. Let me tell you the questions at the bank were like I was in a royal commission.

Read this one...

Criminal syndicates using drug money to buy property, adding to overheated housing market​

Criminal syndicates are using dirty money to launder through property purchases, adding to the overheated Australian housing market.

miranda_charles.png
Charles Miranda


2 min read
October 26, 2021 - 4:33PM
News Corp Australia Network



Behind the Scenes

Don't miss out on the headlines from Behind the Scenes. Followed categories will be added to My News.

International crime syndicates were adding to the overheating of Australia’s real estate market, outbidding genuine legitimate buyers to secure homes to launder dirty money.
Financial intelligence and law enforcement agency the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) has told parliament it had detected evidence of organised home buying racketeering by criminal elements.
Tasmanian Senator Nick McKim asked AUSTRAC chief executive Nicole Rose if she could confirm if the activity was driving prices up and forcing Australians out of the property market.
She said she could not confirm that as a general statement but “we believe that is occurring in specific areas with specific properties”.
466430a9850cbaf801bd7592625fcad1.jpg

Senate Estimates, Legal and Constitutional Affairs, in Parliament House in Canberra. AUSTRAC's CEO Nicole Rose appeared before the committee. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage
“But yes Australian real estate is an attractive wealth gathering area where people are attracted to certainly not just live but invest and laundered money we know has contributed to the purchase of some of those properties,” she said, adding the criminal assets confiscation team was looking at such acquisitions regularly.
AUSTRAC national manager Brad Brown said in looking at criminal threats to the nation’s banking system and its vulnerabilities, threats to the real estate industry emerged.
“We determined the average person that is purchasing real estate would actually be at a disadvantage where they are potentially competing against a person who is looking to utilise criminal proceeds and does not have the same limits to which a normal customer, you and I, may face,” he said.
1c57c31b362829e0d67befafb824bdec.jpg

A Melbourne proprety seized last year by the AFP over a fraud and trafficking case. Picture: Supplied
“Certainly law enforcement in Australia, the Australian Federal Police and State and territory law enforcement, have seized real property – as in dwellings – that has been purchased with the proceeds of crime.”
It is understood some of the suspicious criminal laundering through the property market included apartments in Sydney, Melbourne and Queensland, notably the Gold Coast, and large swathes of rural properties. Criminal syndicates, including the Italian Mafia ‘Ndrangheta and Asian triads, use the properties to hide and or launder moneys usually from their trafficking of drugs or other contraband and criminal activity.
AUSTRAC told the committee there were suspicions around numerous purchases but declined to comment about specific recent purchases including Nigerian money used to buy huge farms and investments by some buyers from China through multiple layers of offshore trusts as detailed in the “Pandora Papers”.
71d0c573363f4c913de138f45287ba0e.jpg

This luxury $4.5 million Dover Heights property in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs and $250,000 Mercedes Benz S63 AMG Coupe were last year seized by the AFP in relation to an ABF investigation.
The leaked Pandora Papers uncovered by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) earlier this month exposed millions of documents of secret offshore accounts revealing how world leaders, billionaires, business leader and celebrities hide their money. About 400 Australians are listed in here.
It is not illegal to have money offshore but there are issues around tax.
159f570a6d3750fed9f9be5b4e880f92.jpg

AUSTRAC chasing money laundering through suspicious property purchasing. Picture: Supplied
Mr Rose confirmed she had a number of analysts working on the Australian Taxation Office serious financial crime task force looking into Pandora revelations.
The Australian property market has soared during the past 18 months by 20 per cent and higher in some quarters as low interest drive demand particularly from investors.
Speaking at an earlier parliamentary hearing, Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn urged a review.
“We think it would be important to take some modest steps sooner rather than later to take some of the heat out of the housing market,” Mr Comyn said.
“I think it would be prudent to act sooner rather than later.”
 

Telezacski

A Local
Ski Pass
Mar 19, 2010
7,780
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Read this one...

Criminal syndicates using drug money to buy property, adding to overheated housing market​

Criminal syndicates are using dirty money to launder through property purchases, adding to the overheated Australian housing market.

miranda_charles.png
Charles Miranda


2 min read
October 26, 2021 - 4:33PM
News Corp Australia Network



Behind the Scenes

Don't miss out on the headlines from Behind the Scenes. Followed categories will be added to My News.

International crime syndicates were adding to the overheating of Australia’s real estate market, outbidding genuine legitimate buyers to secure homes to launder dirty money.
Financial intelligence and law enforcement agency the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) has told parliament it had detected evidence of organised home buying racketeering by criminal elements.
Tasmanian Senator Nick McKim asked AUSTRAC chief executive Nicole Rose if she could confirm if the activity was driving prices up and forcing Australians out of the property market.
She said she could not confirm that as a general statement but “we believe that is occurring in specific areas with specific properties”.
466430a9850cbaf801bd7592625fcad1.jpg

Senate Estimates, Legal and Constitutional Affairs, in Parliament House in Canberra. AUSTRAC's CEO Nicole Rose appeared before the committee. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage
“But yes Australian real estate is an attractive wealth gathering area where people are attracted to certainly not just live but invest and laundered money we know has contributed to the purchase of some of those properties,” she said, adding the criminal assets confiscation team was looking at such acquisitions regularly.
AUSTRAC national manager Brad Brown said in looking at criminal threats to the nation’s banking system and its vulnerabilities, threats to the real estate industry emerged.
“We determined the average person that is purchasing real estate would actually be at a disadvantage where they are potentially competing against a person who is looking to utilise criminal proceeds and does not have the same limits to which a normal customer, you and I, may face,” he said.
1c57c31b362829e0d67befafb824bdec.jpg

A Melbourne proprety seized last year by the AFP over a fraud and trafficking case. Picture: Supplied
“Certainly law enforcement in Australia, the Australian Federal Police and State and territory law enforcement, have seized real property – as in dwellings – that has been purchased with the proceeds of crime.”
It is understood some of the suspicious criminal laundering through the property market included apartments in Sydney, Melbourne and Queensland, notably the Gold Coast, and large swathes of rural properties. Criminal syndicates, including the Italian Mafia ‘Ndrangheta and Asian triads, use the properties to hide and or launder moneys usually from their trafficking of drugs or other contraband and criminal activity.
AUSTRAC told the committee there were suspicions around numerous purchases but declined to comment about specific recent purchases including Nigerian money used to buy huge farms and investments by some buyers from China through multiple layers of offshore trusts as detailed in the “Pandora Papers”.
71d0c573363f4c913de138f45287ba0e.jpg

This luxury $4.5 million Dover Heights property in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs and $250,000 Mercedes Benz S63 AMG Coupe were last year seized by the AFP in relation to an ABF investigation.
The leaked Pandora Papers uncovered by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) earlier this month exposed millions of documents of secret offshore accounts revealing how world leaders, billionaires, business leader and celebrities hide their money. About 400 Australians are listed in here.
It is not illegal to have money offshore but there are issues around tax.
159f570a6d3750fed9f9be5b4e880f92.jpg

AUSTRAC chasing money laundering through suspicious property purchasing. Picture: Supplied
Mr Rose confirmed she had a number of analysts working on the Australian Taxation Office serious financial crime task force looking into Pandora revelations.
The Australian property market has soared during the past 18 months by 20 per cent and higher in some quarters as low interest drive demand particularly from investors.
Speaking at an earlier parliamentary hearing, Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn urged a review.
“We think it would be important to take some modest steps sooner rather than later to take some of the heat out of the housing market,” Mr Comyn said.
“I think it would be prudent to act sooner rather than later.”
Article should really read Austrac doing what it was set up to do.

Pretty sensational article and title for one property seized, I note the ceo also declined to comment on the question “are syndicate driving prices up”.

What is clear in the article is Australia has a very strategic and collaborative approach to uncovering money laundering through a number of agencies hence my earlier comment that we are not an attractive place to invest ( doesn’t mean it isn’t happening).

Respectfully I’d say what the article shows is the sophistication of our system is such, people wouldn’t want to stick their head out too much as it will be easily visible.
 

SMSkier

One of Us
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Oct 4, 2016
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Bloke was in no hurry to sell, has done a massive clean up of all his collected bits n pieces and is now ready to bail inland to restore an old coach house.
Spot on. I’ve been out there a few times. Pretty eclectic personality and collection. Have purchased a bit of garden art from him. Still not convinced in price range but the market will advise in due course. Will help that’s it’s easier for folks to inspect as compared to when it was on the market in lockdown. Definitely looks better now.
 
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Annabuzzy

That's 'ma Lord Buzzy to you
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Interest rates will increase sooner or later - expect mayble 5 or 6% in 5 years time - who knows?

Rates like that on expensive lifestyle properties with debt will cause a contraction
I suspect it’s a bit of a covid induced bubble, but we’ll see. For me, it’s not an attractive buy. Australia’s a big country with lots of land. A bit of imagination can see all or most of the benefits seen near Jindy for a fraction of the price.
 
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dawooduck

relaxed and comfortable
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I suspect it’s a bit of a covid induced bubble, but we’ll see. For me, it’s not an attractive buy. Australia’s a big country with lots of land. A bit of imagination can see all or most of the benefits seen near Jindy for a fraction of the price.

In Australia?
 
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