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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Dec 1, 2011.
Pretty sticky and hot here, could do with a shower to cool things down for a while.
Just fallen to below 30 here, but 60% humidity means it doesn't feel that cool.
I was loving this sort of weather a couple of weeks ago, not so now
Looks like some storms coming in from the NW (looks to be at Macedon)
BOM has posted STW for the state.
Looking very dark in the NW now.
Solid line of storms coming our way, I might clear out of work right on time instead of late today.
Pissing down now in St Kilda.
black core on the radar just coming into St Kilda.
Oh man this is going to be nasty as.
Dandenongs would have some flash flooding for sure. We did OK here got 20mm and a heap of big drops but nothing too bad. Lots of runoff though.
Flogged down here in Boronia,at around 4.20 pm Dorset rd was almost stand still.
Backed off a bit after that.
Was working at the pool today, sky turned incredibly black, almost closed on account of inadequate lighting! Within a minute of ordering all the kids out of the pool due to lightning it hammered down. May end up with raised water levels in the pools
24.5mm this evening at my place.
Just firing up in Jindy again now for the 7 consecutive day now at around 4-5pm
GFS got that pretty much right, didn't it.
Get the feeling that the models do a lot better in summer?
They dont seem to produce as many 'dreamland' systems then downgrade downgrade downgrade for 3-4 days before the event.
If anything they upgrade. Things sometimes come out of nowhere about 3 days out.
In the case of the last lot of storms only a cool change was forecast.
GFS had instability for the whole week, and that was pretty much true.
Anyone else think winds in Vic seem to have been dominated by SE this summer?
Maybe I am noticing more cos I bought a surfboard this year!!
Its been a beautiful early autumn weekend on the Real CC
Agree Mick- Definately more SE/E winds blowing this summer in Vic than previous years. East Gippsland rivers are flowing at a good level at the moment due to all the storm activity the past 3 weeks.
Looking like some rain / storms developing late Saturday and in to Sunday for Victoria.
GFS showing some good rainfall, in particular in the west of the state.
Following which we get a strong SW change. Could be cold enough for some snow showers above 1200m in Tasmania on Monday.
this morning's GFS run gives us this
Chance of some storms this afternoon in Victoria, also tomorrow in the east.
Weekend looks very stormy.
Weekend and next week shaping up as very wet on EC.
EC is tracking a day behind the GFS system - it's showing the cold weather arriving Tuesday. It's showing 50mm+ for the period (Melbourne).
Weekend is looking quite warm at this stage, but also building humidity. Most models are going for heavy and widespread rain, but timing differs slightly. Seems to be around Monday or Monday night.
Yes, warm but humid. Low 30s & 50% humidity.
I doubt we'll see 40 again for the rest of summer / early autumn now.
Every GFS run since has the moisture tracking further and further north.
It's now looking like NSW will get smashed early next week.
Sunday looks windy, and I have a charter
Agree that GFS is concentrating the rainfall into a small area. ACCESS on the other hand has gone overboard
If it's troughy which it looks like it will be then I cant see it being isolated. I also cant see the models being able to predict it that well, although they have done a good job so far.
EC has 34mm forecast for Melbourne on Monday, with 15mm to follow.
Models still twiching about where the moisture is going to end up with this one. Eg GFS back to a more central system, but EC has backed off a little.
BOM's current analysis shows us this.
Looks exciting on Monday.
Models all going for a big Monday & Tuesday, seems pretty much locked in. EC now 70mm for Melbourne. Monday going to be stormy.
Jesus that's off the chart. Im looking at 15-20kt winds for PPB on Sunday for my whiting charter, could be an interesting one, especially with nowhere to hide in the gay bay. With this sort of heavy rain, if it eventuates that is, the drains and creeks flowing into both bays will be very dirty and full of junk, fishing and swimming will probably be off-limits for a few days.
Perhaps the last hurrah for really warm weather this weekend too. 37, and sticky tomorrow in Melbourne. Not going to be nice.
Not convinced it's going to be that windy on Sunday.
GFS would have it around 10knts
ACCESS perhaps a touch stronger 15 knts
Yes it has died back in the past couple of days, it was looking really dicey at the beginning of the week. Could still be OK.
Sometimes I think GFS just goes over the top ...
lololololololol at least it's not progging a monster ECL.
GFS on BSCH always does. Although Stormcast is useful
Not that warm this morning, definitely doesn't feel like it could be a mid 30's day today at all. Humidity is very high though.
Not just BSCH, look at accumulated precipitation on weatheronline, it's the same.
As it should be, they both use the same raw GFS data.
It always seems more over the top on BSCH than on WZ for some reason.
Evening's GFS run has the moisture a bit further south IMO. AXS is adamant that we in Gippsland will get drenched, hasn't changed its stance over the past few days.
Not sure it's further south.
Better build that ark. Make that a big one.
backed off a bit this mornings run. Still would be keen to see the updated 7 day CC.
9am GFS run