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The Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2011.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok with the season wrapping up (apart from the lucky devils having a slide this weekend), this thread is for day to day weather forecasts, observations and weather banter.

    First up.
    Coming weekend looking wet again, GFS and EC showing a fair bit of moisture Friday through Sunday.
    GFS is also suggesting a cold blast around Wednesday the 12th, so worth keeping an eye on.
     
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT in a good place for next weekend. Liking this.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No good for fishing though [​IMG]
     
    #3 Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking wet but not so bad wind-wise.

    Undecided on where to post this question, but here should do. Why does it appear that most, if not all models will predict fronts that dont occur? More often than not a model will 'find' a frontal system out of somewhere and either kill it in the next run, or run with it and it doesnt eventuate. Why dont we ever see fine conditions (or semi-fine) predicted and a front comes out of nowhere? Or is that a symptom of always looking for fronts because that's what we want/need?
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps weather just tends to revert to stability?

    Eildon should be close to 100% this week, and Thomson dam should break 50% full today.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looks wet Friday to Sunday, followed up with some snow on Monday & Tuesday next week.

    Early Friday
    [​IMG]

    Monday
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #7 Claude Cat, Oct 3, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still showing snow for early next week, IMO

    [​IMG]

    ACCESS and EC have it less cold although I'd still be going for snow about 1800m on both these models for Monday / Tuesday.
    Damp otherwise from late Thursday.
     
    #8 Claude Cat, Oct 4, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Cricket starts next weekend so it is bound to rain. Last year in Jindy we got snowed of for our first game of the season.
     
  10. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Sheesh....that little blob of red on the Melbourne radar must be sitting above my house at the moment. In the past 15min, I've had 13mm of rain [​IMG]
     
    #10 Mr Bean, Oct 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There is a STW warning out for Melbourne. Although they seem to be heading out.

    [​IMG]

    (will update)
     
    #11 Claude Cat, Oct 6, 2011
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  12. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    I'm in the northern red blob (St Andrews). And its still hanging around [​IMG]

    18mm and still coming down.
     
    #12 Mr Bean, Oct 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Dry as a bone here in St Kilda.
     
  14. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Well, the Diamond Creek flows into the Yarra. At this rate, I'll be floating past in about half an hour [​IMG]
     
    #14 Mr Bean, Oct 6, 2011
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  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Deja vu anyone? Same thing started about 12 months ago, and continued all through summer pretty much. I for one would be happy to see a repeat.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Cells appearing all over the place with the convection.
    Some appearing at Bacchus Marsh, Gisborne & Sunbury. It's very still so I'm not sure they are going to be mobile.
     
  17. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    The 9th looks pretty exiting from what I am seeing.

    Its all my fault guys.

    I decided back in April to do a Parra G course in October so I Jinxed us all.

    I wanted instability through August then stability in October but the reverse is happening.

    Back on topic, the 9th looks like snow P@rn. Long spring for the BC boys.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes it does look good IMO

    [​IMG]

    It will probably wreck Verm's fishing trip though.
     
    #18 Claude Cat, Oct 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    I noticed it last week in the charts, this week looks the same. Look to be going back into that continual 'troughy' pattern like last year.. Makes me a little nervous however.. A full Eildon and Lake Hume could make last years vic 'floods' look minor (which they were in most areas, loddon aside) in comparison.. Hope im wrong.
     
    #19 h2oskier, Oct 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Dont worry Verm, the first 4 days of my Parra G course look pretty rough too. Lots of theory work for me, I am assuming.
     
    #20 Katanga, Oct 6, 2011
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  21. Katanga

    Katanga First Runs

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    Yep, even half of last years off season precip will cause havoc, but they did drain lake Mulwala last Autumn so it will help anywhere between Mully and Swan Hill but past that, they have the Darling to deal with and that is a whole new beast this year.

    AND, they may have already let Lake Mully refill so they could all be in the sh1t....

    Gonna be a very unsettled summer, or at least early summer. I am thinking Autumn may bring the fires back as it dries out around mid Jan imo.
     
    #21 Katanga, Oct 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  22. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    After an hour or so, we had 24mm in St Andrews. I suspect Kinglake had a little more.
     
  23. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    i'm heading up to the st andrews town hall for a party saturday, lookout mr bean!

    I'm liking the long spring wintery bursts.....that didnt come in winter
     
  24. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    He he, half the pub will turn up. Its just across the road [​IMG]
     
    #24 Mr Bean, Oct 6, 2011
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  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We had 10mm in Cranbourne this arvo. Surprised.

    I'll find places to hide on Sunday [​IMG]
     
    #25 Vermillion, Oct 6, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    If the Pipe wasnt stopped by Block the Pipe protestations water could be pumed out of Eildon to allow for flooding in.
    It they dont and it floods the region it will be a bit of irony for those in the region who wanted the Pipeline shut.
     
    #26 PolePlant, Oct 6, 2011
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  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You couldnt catch the bottom if you went [​IMG] PP.
     
    #27 Vermillion, Oct 7, 2011
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Good chance of TS this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
     
    #29 Claude Cat, Oct 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Thanks for the heads up CC. I'll go and clear the gutters now, before the downpour. It was a little tricky trying to do that yesterday arvo [​IMG]
     
    #30 Mr Bean, Oct 7, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pleasant here in Sydney, but lots of dark clouds gathering.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Storms starting to build over Sunbury / Gisborne and moving east.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup just back at my desk and seeing these. Looks like it'll be an interesting afternoon.
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    might rain on my fishing

    dammit
     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A couple of cells popping up around the bay and heading westerly, we could be in the firing line here again tonight. 17mm in total last night, could be a good start to the month.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yeh, a few showers moving through canterbury now, odd rumble too. Nothing yesterday, but a couple of mm in the last hour or so.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking pretty weak now on Monday & Tuesday. Perhaps a flake or two.
     
  38. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    is that a prediction on the fishing CC, or the snow? [​IMG]
     
    #38 mr, Oct 9, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    perhaps a bit of both? [​IMG]

    Central / southern QLD looks very wet late this week and into the weekend. Shades of last year.

    [​IMG]
     
    #39 Claude Cat, Oct 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  40. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    another big summer for the darling river...
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mt Baw Baw showing a dusting from this morning.

    [​IMG]
     
    #41 Claude Cat, Oct 10, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking at the radar I think there will be some snow showers at Buller, Lake Mountain and Mt Baw Baw over the next few hours.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Dusting showing Mt Buller.
     
  44. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Im calling 3cm for Perisher overnight
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Main band of rain already through Melbourne. All of 0.8mm. There might be another mm or two following, but I wouldn't count on it.
     
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    I can see some proper showers appearing on the radar as well, there might be something in those.
     
  47. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    5 cm snow Dead Horse Gap. Snowing down to 1300m and settling 1400
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    5mm at Bonbeach. Quite persistent from 3 until 8. Saturated now.
    Liking a return to all the inland 'troughy' weather again,( this front aside)
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah me too, means the wind stays down for the main part [​IMG]
     
    #49 Vermillion, Oct 10, 2011
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Nice to see a dusting for all the resorts.