The Spring Weather Banter Thread

Claude Cat

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EC going for around 40mm of rain for Melbourne over the weekend.
GFS a little less optimistic, but looks like a spill over of the trough that will soak NSW Thursday / Friday.

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Vermillion

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Yeah Sydney has been smashed the last 24 hours and looks set to continue.

CC - Thanks I was doubting my weather forecasting skills more than I already do! I see the same 5-10kts and a sweet day out tomorrow
smile.gif
 
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Vermillion

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Claude Cat said:
EC going for around 40mm of rain for Melbourne over the weekend.
GFS a little less optimistic, but looks like a spill over of the trough that will soak NSW Thursday / Friday.

11112600_2212.gif

Last time I checked AXS was not interested in it, too far North for Melb. GFS has been on this all week.
 
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Vermillion

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Hmm most of the weather services are going for wind between 15-20kts from the SE tomorrow. I still cant see it but I am getting a bit skeptical now, is it worth potentially wasting a days annual leave?
 

skiflat

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A wet weekend for Melbourne again!

The 3 weather models going for anywhere from 15-40mm+
 

Claude Cat

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Looks wet for Sydney (today & tomorrow) & Melbourne (weekend).

apf14_init-2011112312z_fcst-z_APF_vic_.png


As EC was saying earlier this week, GFS has only just come on-board.
EC going for 50mm+ from Friday afternoon.
 
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skiflat

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Claude Cat

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laugh.gif


Strong wind warning for Western Port
Winds: East to southeasterly and increasing up to 30 knots early evening. Seas: 1 to 2 metres increasing to 2 to 2.5 metres during the evening.

Looks perfect from here but Rhyll reporting winds at 15 knots or better & PI at 18 knots.
 
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ice_man

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Been gusty all day here so far. Clear skies though.

This weekend is looking big for most of Vic... a sting in the tail of that low on Saturday could cause some big falls along the south. Here in Gippsland we really don't need any more rain, the entire valley is a swamp and catchments are saturated.
 

Vermillion

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Every year when we have to go down there it always pours. Having said that i've had some beautiful light shows looking out towards Melbourne from the beach with a can or 10 in hand. Always get a good feed of squid out there too.
 

Claude Cat

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Mmmm, Vic BOM has issued flood watches again.

The following Watches/Warnings are current:

Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)

Flood Watch for West and South Gippsland (Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister and Avon Catchments and South Gippsland Basin)

Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa,Ovens and King Catchments)

Areas of rain have been forecast for the Greater Melbourne Catchments from early Saturday through to Sunday. Catchment wide rainfall totals of 50mm have been forecast with higher totals possible on the ranges.

Panning out like last summer, although I think there is more residual heat in the centre this year.
 
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ice_man

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Certainly had a few warmer days so far than last year IMO. I seem to notice as soon as it gets warm, the weather gets interesting. Lately when we get some cooler weather the cold fronts don't pack enough punch to do anything interesting.
 

ice_man

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You sure...? Most hot days we've had so far have been humid as well... don't forget it isn't even December yet.
 

Vermillion

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Yeah I know but I remember half a dozen odd days last spring/summer where the windows at work condensated up, and it hasnt happened once yet this year. We have been lacking those 28C high humidity days and SE/NE winds, a lot of the troughs have come from the NW which is generally drier.
 

ice_man

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All models appear to have backed away from this slightly, but I agree with Verm on this one.

First few days of December looking very cold on AXS. Uh-oh.
 

Claude Cat

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Radar has it being another one of those weird systems that delivers from the NE.
We had a few last spring & summer too.
BOM flood warning from just before midday has the bulk of this arriving from early am Saturday.
 

ice_man

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AXS on the BoM website agrees. Probably not looking quite as bad for Gippsland, but still should expect significant totals.

I think Melbourne might get the most out of this one tonight. Strange as it's usually the far east of Gippsland that cops it in this situation.
 

Claude Cat

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STW for the west of the state.
This one could be quite interesting tomorrow. Wouldn't surprise if we get some storms overnight.
 

Claude Cat

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Not so much action overnight as I expected.
Rain seems o have setted in now in Melbourne. NE ranges getting smashed though. Falls and Hotham over 50mm so far, and plenty to come. Thredbo has had quite a bit.
Lots like the axis of rain is going to take it just east of Melboure, but the catchments should do well.
 

ice_man

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Woke up incredibly early this morning and didn't hear any rain. I wondered what had happened to it... and now I've checked the radar. The rain has come over the Alps and somehow hasn't died out. It's only just started!
 

mr

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spin baby spin. i think my house in in the centre of the low. foucaults pendulum......
 

Claude Cat

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ice_man said:
Don't think we'll see anything for the rest of the day. On the wrong side of the rotation...
Pissing down again!

Verm reports awesome storms down on the peninsula (this morning).
 
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ice_man

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Melbourne copped the worst of it, but we still ended up with more rain last night than I thought. I only expected another 5mm or so... ended up with about another 20.
 

Vermillion

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Is anyone seeing more than a very slight possibility of storms this afternoon? None of the indicators are pointing towards a good session IMO, maybe the BOM can see something I cant?
 
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