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The Spring Weather Banter Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Oct 1, 2011.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC going for around 40mm of rain for Melbourne over the weekend.
    GFS a little less optimistic, but looks like a spill over of the trough that will soak NSW Thursday / Friday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #351 Claude Cat, Nov 23, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah Sydney has been smashed the last 24 hours and looks set to continue.

    CC - Thanks I was doubting my weather forecasting skills more than I already do! I see the same 5-10kts and a sweet day out tomorrow [​IMG]
     
    #352 Vermillion, Nov 23, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last time I checked AXS was not interested in it, too far North for Melb. GFS has been on this all week.
     
    #353 Vermillion, Nov 23, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmm most of the weather services are going for wind between 15-20kts from the SE tomorrow. I still cant see it but I am getting a bit skeptical now, is it worth potentially wasting a days annual leave?
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM Westernport forecast from this morning is showing 5-15 knots until midday then 20knots.
    Seems about right.
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I might be giving it a miss then.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I expect it will get lumpy. Wind against tide from 10.30am, midday it will be standing up in the middle of the tide.
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    20kts of Southerly wind-against-tide up the North Arm, yeah you are right I might take a raincheck on this one. 20kts of southerly up there is plain nasty.
     
  9. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    A wet weekend for Melbourne again!

    The 3 weather models going for anywhere from 15-40mm+
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks wet for Sydney (today & tomorrow) & Melbourne (weekend).

    [​IMG]

    As EC was saying earlier this week, GFS has only just come on-board.
    EC going for 50mm+ from Friday afternoon.
     
    #360 Claude Cat, Nov 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    #361 skiflat, Nov 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So hating weather forecasts at the moment, I should have gone with my gut it looks like a perfect day.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Looks perfect from here but Rhyll reporting winds at 15 knots or better & PI at 18 knots.
     
    #363 Claude Cat, Nov 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bouchier Channel (where i'd be) recording 6kts. ****.
     
  15. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Nice day to be indoors.........
     
  16. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Been gusty all day here so far. Clear skies though.

    This weekend is looking big for most of Vic... a sting in the tail of that low on Saturday could cause some big falls along the south. Here in Gippsland we really don't need any more rain, the entire valley is a swamp and catchments are saturated.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #367 Claude Cat, Nov 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm camping on the foreshore at Sorrento this weekend (with boat in tow) which means it will fire up big time.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS has yet another big system coming through next Tuesday - Thursday.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Every year when we have to go down there it always pours. Having said that i've had some beautiful light shows looking out towards Melbourne from the beach with a can or 10 in hand. Always get a good feed of squid out there too.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sorrento seems to be in a dry spot, often the weather goes around it for some reason.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mmmm, Vic BOM has issued flood watches again.

    Panning out like last summer, although I think there is more residual heat in the centre this year.
     
    #373 Claude Cat, Nov 24, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  24. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Certainly had a few warmer days so far than last year IMO. I seem to notice as soon as it gets warm, the weather gets interesting. Lately when we get some cooler weather the cold fronts don't pack enough punch to do anything interesting.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nowhere near as much humidity as last summer.
     
  26. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    You sure...? Most hot days we've had so far have been humid as well... don't forget it isn't even December yet.
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I know but I remember half a dozen odd days last spring/summer where the windows at work condensated up, and it hasnt happened once yet this year. We have been lacking those 28C high humidity days and SE/NE winds, a lot of the troughs have come from the NW which is generally drier.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Monsoon hasn't started yet, so we haven't had that tropical inflow yet.
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    From this afternoon shit is going to get real. The radar is already blowing up everywhere around VIC.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00z GFS has backed off a bit on the weekend. EC sitting around 40mm.
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the amount of moisture in the SE on the radar I see no reason to back away from this. It just looks wet.
     
  32. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    All models appear to have backed away from this slightly, but I agree with Verm on this one.

    First few days of December looking very cold on AXS. Uh-oh.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Radar has it being another one of those weird systems that delivers from the NE.
    We had a few last spring & summer too.
    BOM flood warning from just before midday has the bulk of this arriving from early am Saturday.
     
  34. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    AXS on the BoM website agrees. Probably not looking quite as bad for Gippsland, but still should expect significant totals.

    I think Melbourne might get the most out of this one tonight. Strange as it's usually the far east of Gippsland that cops it in this situation.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS run back to 50mm+ for Melbourne this weekend.
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Missing at the moment but looks very fertile. I think the models have told us all we need to know about this one, time to focus on the sat loop.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW for the west of the state.
    This one could be quite interesting tomorrow. Wouldn't surprise if we get some storms overnight.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not so much action overnight as I expected.
    Rain seems o have setted in now in Melbourne. NE ranges getting smashed though. Falls and Hotham over 50mm so far, and plenty to come. Thredbo has had quite a bit.
    Lots like the axis of rain is going to take it just east of Melboure, but the catchments should do well.
     
  39. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Woke up incredibly early this morning and didn't hear any rain. I wondered what had happened to it... and now I've checked the radar. The rain has come over the Alps and somehow hasn't died out. It's only just started!
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Now really pissing down in Canterbury. Mt Buffalo out over 80mm, Hotham and Falls 60mm
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And thunder. Nice loud bang!
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melbourne weather radar right now is sublime.
     
  43. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    spin baby spin. i think my house in in the centre of the low. foucaults pendulum......
     
  44. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Don't think we'll see anything for the rest of the day. On the wrong side of the rotation...
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pissing down again!

    Verm reports awesome storms down on the peninsula (this morning).
     
    #395 Claude Cat, Nov 26, 2011
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Rotating nicely right over central regions, it's sucking every thing up from the south.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Avalon 74mm, Geelong 80mm, Hotham close to 100mm, more to come too!
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wind starting to really pick-up too.
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Melbourne copped the worst of it, but we still ended up with more rain last night than I thought. I only expected another 5mm or so... ended up with about another 20.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is anyone seeing more than a very slight possibility of storms this afternoon? None of the indicators are pointing towards a good session IMO, maybe the BOM can see something I cant?