Mega Thread The Weather Forum Epic BBQ thread

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, May 31, 2010.

  1. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Is it just me or does 2017 have a bit of a 1984 vibe about it?

    - Very very similar SOI. Compare 1982/83/84 with 2015/16/17.
    - Record grain harvests in 1983/84 and 2016/17.
    - Relatively mild summer in much of Vic 1983/84 and 2016/17.

    1984 was a bizarre ski season for Australia. Basically nothing until July - a couple of intense cold outbreaks that month, a poor August, and an epic late season.
     
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  2. Scoober

    Scoober Active Member

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    I'll be pretty happy if it follows 84. Time will tell....
     
  3. MarkV

    MarkV Active Member
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    Spencer's creek

    I'd like a repeat of 1960
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Just to add:
    • Neutral IOD value in 1984/1985 Vs our largest neg value recorded in 2016
      • 1998 winter/autumn was the next largest neg IOD value
    • Climatically it wreaks of Y2K lead up IMO
    SOI:
    [​IMG]
    SAM:
    [​IMG]
    DMI (part thereof IOD)
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not going to happen under the Current Administration.
     
  7. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer
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    Cloud porn on the way home not long ago.

     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  9. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer
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  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    Solar storms remove electrons from large portions of Earth's atmosphere

    Copenhagen, Denmark (UPI) Mar 3, 2017

    New research shows solar storms leave large portions of Earth's atmosphere without electrons.

    Typically, when a solar storm reaches Earth, the collision with the planet's magnetosphere creates space through which a barrage of charged particles and electrons flood the ionosphere, an outer layer of Earth's atmosphere.

    In other words, solar storms are most often associated with an excess of electrons. However, the new findings -- detailed in the journal Radio Science -- prove electrons disappear from large parts of the atmosphere at the same time that they congregate elsewhere.

    "We made extensive measurements in connection with a specific solar storm over the Arctic in 2014, and here we found that electrons in large quantities are virtually vacuum-cleaned from areas extending over 500 to 1,000 kilometers," Per Hoeg, a professor at the Technical University of Denmark, explained in a news release. "It takes place just south of an area with heavy increases in electron density, known as patches."

    Currently, scientists only know that the phenomenon happened, not why it happened, but there is plenty of data to survey for clues. Satellites and geomagnetic measuring stations operated by DTU recorded a multitude of data related to the 2014 storm.

    The main goal of Per Hoeg and his colleagues at DTU is to better understand how electromagnetic storms affect communications and navigation systems, but the researchers hope their continued analysis of electromagnetic data will further illuminate the phenomenon of missing electrons.

    "There are two aspects of this research. It can both be used for a number of practical purposes, and then there is a theoretical part which is about achieving a better basic understanding of these phenomena," said Tibor Durgonics, a doctoral student at DTU Space.

    "Our new research has enabled us to identify a number of critical factors that affect the quality of satellite-based navigation, and to assess the probability of when these factors may occur," Durgonics continued.

    "At a more theoretical level, we have found out that during solar storms, electrons are removed in the ionosphere, which is the opposite of what you intuitively would expect."
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    @jwx if I ask really, really nicely, could @Nozawaman and I get a 3 day weather synopsis for Cordova Alaska from you? We've been waiting for a break in the weather here since Sunday and would like to know if there are any clear skies between now and Saturday PM here?

    Cheers DSNS
     
  13. Zimboo

    Zimboo Addicted Member

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    I reckon you'll be getting amongst it on Friday and Saturday DSNS. Technical I know!!!!
     
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  14. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Not much to look at anywhere here.....
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Cyclone thread's going to keep us busy
     
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  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    What's your go to swell maps ?? @POW_hungry @Belly @FourSquare04
    There's a few in amongst the models / sites WZ like this for later next week.
    Just out of interest is all.
    [​IMG]

    This the trusty from daze of olde would have us packing the tent , the orchy bottle and box of weetbix and sunshine milk ;)

    [​IMG]
     
    #10367 nfip, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Hahahaha the orchy bottle - classic stuff @nfip
     
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    any Swell charts / model links ?
     
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  20. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  22. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    most of those are based on. GFS low res ?
     
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  23. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Wavewatch 3 and AUSWAVE are basically the GFS version of ocean models, probably low res.
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Thx.
    I'm across all of those.
    Do appreciate the feedback .
     
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Some really good reading in here.
    I'd seen the modelling but hadn't had much of a browse.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Just GFS, mate.
    SwellNet, CoastalWatch and Seabreeze all do a good job at forecasting though, IMO. There's almost no need to refer to Wave Models when you have such specialist forecasters such as these, I reckon.

    Typical bloody Aussies, can't organise a ride home from the pub but can forecast shit out of waves on every bit of our coastline....
     
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  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Swellnet uses EC's WAM for their website graphics. The thing is that oceanic models have to be attached to atmospheric models because the atmosphere affects waves and swell. GFS is attached to Wave Watch 3.
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    where did you rip that from Pow ?

    Overall my take in general forecasting is EC is reasonably dependable , given we are talking weather.
    If you gotta be placing bets it's the go to.
    GFS not so until we get into the 3 or 4 day window. IMO.
    I read here somewhere , Pow maybe ? , that GEM not rated so good ? tho for snow / winter storm modelling I would think it would (should ?) be sweet.
    Just kicking it around here being beer o'clock friday arv bbq thread....
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I am on Accuweather Pro, but GFS/NCEP's Wave Model III is readily available from here:
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/index2.shtml

    RE: GEM, not saying it's no good, just don't use it. GFS, EC & CMC are my comparison models.
     
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  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Well GFS and GEM usually have similar verification scores, so I approach both with similar accuracy thought . jwx pointed out a while ago that GEM wasn't great in the tropics.
     
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  31. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Aren't CMC and GEM the same thing?
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    You maybe right but different res?
     
  33. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Same run, same time. Taking into graphics differences, GEM on Tropical Tidbits and CMC on Accuweather Pro are the same. :) And the hint on the Accuweather header too.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I am referring to NavGEM.
     
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  35. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Oh sorry! I call the Canuck GEM and the US Navy model as NAVGEM. So I confused myself...
    NAVGEM is useless by most verification. Most model sites refer NAVGEM as that. And CMC as GEM.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Fair call, point taken. AccuWeather treating you ok? There's been a lot of bad data lately. Gaps in the runs etc..
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah lots of gaps. There's a lag in getting model data behind Tropical Tidbits etc. but that's been around for a while. But it works most of the time. I just reload it over and over again until it works.
     
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  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yeah I was thinking the same thing @Hermon that this year looked similar to '84

    There was a weather event recently, may have been the wet March record here in Sydney potentially, that was the wettest in 33 years which took us back to.....low and behold - 1984
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's systems like these (the cut off system over the SE) that act in many ways a precursor event... to me, it suggests that the mechanics of good snowfall are in check with cold and more than ample moisture. It only points in the right direction until things on a climatic level alter.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Cold, moist, rotation & sub-1000hPa; Check!
    [​IMG]
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC has something there too, but it peters out a bit.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Big cold outbreak for ~37S in April if it was to verify. Really deep cold air. -32C inline with Mount Gambier.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Big swings in model's but the 20th system still there with a little more ridging on EC and GFS. Which favours snow on the alps as opposed to the cold air peaking in the GAB.
     
  44. Egbert

    Egbert Dedicated Member

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    It's going to be a good season - I can feel it in my hip. Or maybe that's the new parts they put in on Monday.

    Wonder if I can ski in 4 months time.
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    seemed to peak on WA each time last year iirc.
    patiently we wait....
     
  46. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Active Member

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah GFS is having a bit of trouble with it's trajectory (and has for the last 3-4 days). But the positive sign is it's there on both EC & GFS. Pressure could be lower and precip is mediocre as a result - big swing from yesterday, but that's what you get at 204 hrs out..
    [​IMG]
     
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  48. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    looks good but it's a long way out for GFS.
     
  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Jetstream is solid and a winter setup is building on this EC Zonal Wind anomaly chart.
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    The polar vortex is going nicely too, would expect some more pre-season snow with this kind of setup.
     
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