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Mega Thread The Weather Forum Epic BBQ thread

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Sandy, May 31, 2010.

  1. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solar storms remove electrons from large portions of Earth's atmosphere

    Copenhagen, Denmark (UPI) Mar 3, 2017

    New research shows solar storms leave large portions of Earth's atmosphere without electrons.

    Typically, when a solar storm reaches Earth, the collision with the planet's magnetosphere creates space through which a barrage of charged particles and electrons flood the ionosphere, an outer layer of Earth's atmosphere.

    In other words, solar storms are most often associated with an excess of electrons. However, the new findings -- detailed in the journal Radio Science -- prove electrons disappear from large parts of the atmosphere at the same time that they congregate elsewhere.

    "We made extensive measurements in connection with a specific solar storm over the Arctic in 2014, and here we found that electrons in large quantities are virtually vacuum-cleaned from areas extending over 500 to 1,000 kilometers," Per Hoeg, a professor at the Technical University of Denmark, explained in a news release. "It takes place just south of an area with heavy increases in electron density, known as patches."

    Currently, scientists only know that the phenomenon happened, not why it happened, but there is plenty of data to survey for clues. Satellites and geomagnetic measuring stations operated by DTU recorded a multitude of data related to the 2014 storm.

    The main goal of Per Hoeg and his colleagues at DTU is to better understand how electromagnetic storms affect communications and navigation systems, but the researchers hope their continued analysis of electromagnetic data will further illuminate the phenomenon of missing electrons.

    "There are two aspects of this research. It can both be used for a number of practical purposes, and then there is a theoretical part which is about achieving a better basic understanding of these phenomena," said Tibor Durgonics, a doctoral student at DTU Space.

    "Our new research has enabled us to identify a number of critical factors that affect the quality of satellite-based navigation, and to assess the probability of when these factors may occur," Durgonics continued.

    "At a more theoretical level, we have found out that during solar storms, electrons are removed in the ionosphere, which is the opposite of what you intuitively would expect."
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    @jwx if I ask really, really nicely, could @Nozawaman and I get a 3 day weather synopsis for Cordova Alaska from you? We've been waiting for a break in the weather here since Sunday and would like to know if there are any clear skies between now and Saturday PM here?

    Cheers DSNS
     
  5. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

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    I reckon you'll be getting amongst it on Friday and Saturday DSNS. Technical I know!!!!
     
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  6. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much to look at anywhere here.....
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cyclone thread's going to keep us busy
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What's your go to swell maps ?? @POW_hungry @Belly @FourSquare04
    There's a few in amongst the models / sites WZ like this for later next week.
    Just out of interest is all.
    [​IMG]

    This the trusty from daze of olde would have us packing the tent , the orchy bottle and box of weetbix and sunshine milk ;)

    [​IMG]
     
    #10359 nfip, Apr 7, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2017
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  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Hahahaha the orchy bottle - classic stuff @nfip
     
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  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    any Swell charts / model links ?
     
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  12. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    most of those are based on. GFS low res ?
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wavewatch 3 and AUSWAVE are basically the GFS version of ocean models, probably low res.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thx.
    I'm across all of those.
    Do appreciate the feedback .
     
  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some really good reading in here.
    I'd seen the modelling but hadn't had much of a browse.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just GFS, mate.
    SwellNet, CoastalWatch and Seabreeze all do a good job at forecasting though, IMO. There's almost no need to refer to Wave Models when you have such specialist forecasters such as these, I reckon.

    Typical bloody Aussies, can't organise a ride home from the pub but can forecast shit out of waves on every bit of our coastline....
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Swellnet uses EC's WAM for their website graphics. The thing is that oceanic models have to be attached to atmospheric models because the atmosphere affects waves and swell. GFS is attached to Wave Watch 3.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    where did you rip that from Pow ?

    Overall my take in general forecasting is EC is reasonably dependable , given we are talking weather.
    If you gotta be placing bets it's the go to.
    GFS not so until we get into the 3 or 4 day window. IMO.
    I read here somewhere , Pow maybe ? , that GEM not rated so good ? tho for snow / winter storm modelling I would think it would (should ?) be sweet.
    Just kicking it around here being beer o'clock friday arv bbq thread....
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am on Accuweather Pro, but GFS/NCEP's Wave Model III is readily available from here:
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/index2.shtml

    RE: GEM, not saying it's no good, just don't use it. GFS, EC & CMC are my comparison models.
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well GFS and GEM usually have similar verification scores, so I approach both with similar accuracy thought . jwx pointed out a while ago that GEM wasn't great in the tropics.
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Aren't CMC and GEM the same thing?
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You maybe right but different res?
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Same run, same time. Taking into graphics differences, GEM on Tropical Tidbits and CMC on Accuweather Pro are the same. :) And the hint on the Accuweather header too.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am referring to NavGEM.
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh sorry! I call the Canuck GEM and the US Navy model as NAVGEM. So I confused myself...
    NAVGEM is useless by most verification. Most model sites refer NAVGEM as that. And CMC as GEM.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair call, point taken. AccuWeather treating you ok? There's been a lot of bad data lately. Gaps in the runs etc..
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah lots of gaps. There's a lag in getting model data behind Tropical Tidbits etc. but that's been around for a while. But it works most of the time. I just reload it over and over again until it works.
     
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  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yeah I was thinking the same thing @Hermon that this year looked similar to '84

    There was a weather event recently, may have been the wet March record here in Sydney potentially, that was the wettest in 33 years which took us back to.....low and behold - 1984
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's systems like these (the cut off system over the SE) that act in many ways a precursor event... to me, it suggests that the mechanics of good snowfall are in check with cold and more than ample moisture. It only points in the right direction until things on a climatic level alter.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold, moist, rotation & sub-1000hPa; Check!
    [​IMG]
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has something there too, but it peters out a bit.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big cold outbreak for ~37S in April if it was to verify. Really deep cold air. -32C inline with Mount Gambier.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big swings in model's but the 20th system still there with a little more ridging on EC and GFS. Which favours snow on the alps as opposed to the cold air peaking in the GAB.
     
  36. Egbert

    Egbert One of Us

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    It's going to be a good season - I can feel it in my hip. Or maybe that's the new parts they put in on Monday.

    Wonder if I can ski in 4 months time.
     
  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    seemed to peak on WA each time last year iirc.
    patiently we wait....
     
  38. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah GFS is having a bit of trouble with it's trajectory (and has for the last 3-4 days). But the positive sign is it's there on both EC & GFS. Pressure could be lower and precip is mediocre as a result - big swing from yesterday, but that's what you get at 204 hrs out..
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks good but it's a long way out for GFS.
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Jetstream is solid and a winter setup is building on this EC Zonal Wind anomaly chart.
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    The polar vortex is going nicely too, would expect some more pre-season snow with this kind of setup.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    better with the pressure ,
    but not so with the geo ht. ?
    GFS has 540 much further North.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll most certainly do for April!:thumbs:
     
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  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely.
    Loving the shape , and the recent pattern we observe.
    Steady as she goes .
     
  47. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Hmm I wonder if there will be much in the way of snow from this system?
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    At the moment:
    [​IMG]
    EC has 5-8cm on the cards for the Main Range.
    [​IMG]
    And GFS has 10-15cm on the cards for the Main Range. But it doesn't show snow for the Victorian Alps, unlike EC that shows Dusting-5cm for the Vic Alps. But snowfall totals will become much more clear closer to the event.
     
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  49. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Thanks for that. Fingers crossed for Vic for some sightseeing snow.
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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