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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Sandy, May 31, 2010.
better with the pressure ,
but not so with the geo ht. ?
GFS has 540 much further North.
It'll most certainly do for April!
Loving the shape , and the recent pattern we observe.
Steady as she goes .
Hmm I wonder if there will be much in the way of snow from this system?
At the moment:
EC has 5-8cm on the cards for the Main Range.
And GFS has 10-15cm on the cards for the Main Range. But it doesn't show snow for the Victorian Alps, unlike EC that shows Dusting-5cm for the Vic Alps. But snowfall totals will become much more clear closer to the event.
Thanks for that. Fingers crossed for Vic for some sightseeing snow.
Quiet day doing some reading.
This helping my understanding of the Skew-T puzzle plot.
Plenty more info in the Topic.
The entire site is a gold-mine of knowledge.
Talk about praying for rain ....
BOM's newly-released climate Outlook isn't exactly comforting for the beginning of winter (May-July):
Yikes. Better enjoy this current cool weather, might be the last we have for a while.
What does it mean exactly? Poor chance of snow-producing conditions for this winter?
Looking at the chance of above mean temps, the BOM seems to think it will be a fairly warm period compared to normal. But that's probably what it will say every year from here on in.
Very low chance of exceeding median rainfall is unfavourable also (a dry seasonal average). they tend to have a reasonable skill/accuracy on them too.
Dry and warm aren't really the words we want to see on a ski forum, are they?
Come to think of it, I can't think of any forums that want those two words posted...
The Australian Naturist Forums, perhaps?
Except the Sunshine forums.
Take these with a grain of salt.Their forecasts are always either on the warm side of above night and day temps as well as below average rainfall.
The rainfall accuracy is reasonably high for a climate model.
And the Max Temp predictions are even better for the Alps.
It's allowed to be dry and a little bit warmer than average if that is interspersed with short bursts of eipc cold and wet. The clear nights can then turn the base into concrete.
So, in short, don't bother dusting off the skis this season? Bloody grim lol.
No, climate outlooks sometimes stuff up and Late Season might be great. But it doesn't like a great pre season according to all the guidance we have.
Chin up bro.
You'll still have some fun.
Do a bit of research , bit of storm - watching and sweat on the models and the crap we read ( and write )here.
When it's on , load the van and go for it.
If it's not . go anyways better than staying home being miserable wishing you where going.... !
Exactly. I will be keeping the car ready to go at a moment's notice. Fingers crossed for some decent cold snaps.
We always worry that it will be too hot or too cold with no moisture at the beginning of each season.
The fact is that it will snow, it will rain, it will be freezing and it will be warm. It won't ever be epic enough or powdery enough but we'll all have fun and live to see in season 2018.
Hopefully... 'til this guys rocks up.
Amen to that. I guess the warm outlook always leaves me worried. But yes, we always have snow. And yes, I always make the most of it and have fun every season.
Dunno about that...
Meanwhile, today Hotham be like...
Ripped from a friends fb.
She walks this stretch each day and saw the Clouds , then this...
BoM Graduate Meteorologist program now open
Would anybody know of a yearly record of the expanse of the Siberian Snow Cover? I am working on some correlations for the Japanese snow seasonal forecast.
Mild and wet in sMelbourne for this time of year. 20c max tomorrow with sub tropical depression moving over us
the "Arctic Sea Ice Forum" may have this sort of information.
That's actually funny because it's a real thing.
But it's fine, Judah Cohen gave me a great link.
I am looking into the Japanese snow season correlations, not the rest of the NH. But Cohen's work is very interesting and I hope he continues his research to make his theory better.
Well what else would you be doing with this in the back paddock ???
Could we be in for some tropical influence ?
At least he won't hear what's coming....
Seriously I have been on here for a while....but now you have to be a meotorogicalllllly freak to say if a cold front might come over and snow a bit ffs
Not at all. Above post is just a Sea Surface Temperature thingymibob with change in temp in Celcius.
Just been viewing the noodles within SPAG and things are looking up imo.