Snow Report Thredbo 2019 Trip Report, Conditions & Pics

Blackbear?

 

Thredbo forecast for Saturday through Tuesday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

 

They have portable snowmakers, some dams and some kick arse pumps. I'm not sure how long the hoses on the portables can be, but I reckon a line of those pointing up the valley would slow a lot of fires down.

 

Where else!

 

The forecast for Sunday on looks good. It is just Saturday.

 

I have no issue with owners etc offering refunds or People on the ground asking. But maybe let things pass before publicly asking , making the question sound like Thredbo are shutting down and not offering the service you have paid for.

People are prepping for the worst they may not have property or jobs to go to on Sunday and the question sounded like the only care was the $100 lift ticket.

 

We are, with deep regret, leaving a very smoky, and eerily quiet, Thredbo. Will it still be standing when the rain comes on Sunday? It will be way to ironic if we get lots of rain on Sunday on a razed village.

Most people want to stay but we know that we will be putting the village’s firefighters at risk if we do. So reluctantly we are going. Stay safe everyone.

 

Good luck everyone.

 

You are doing the right thing @Townsend. The less people they have to worry about, the better chance they have of handling it.

 

We know that and everyone, who have not been asked to stay, are leaving.

 

Any clue how many people have tasks and are therefore staying?

 

They are pointing at the lift buildings up top and VT down bottom.
Was on Batos instagram story last night.
He left at 7pm

 

I'm told there was a community meeting in the Jindy Memorial Hall at 11:00am this morning. Anyone attend?

 

It’s on Facebook, Jindy notice board

 

Wish I was on FB then ...

No, I really don't. That's a total fib.

 

I have totally removed myself and just use it for a few of the community groups and buy sell groups I’m in. I haven’t posted in years

 

It was also streamed by council, perhaps on their webpage?

 

Apparently it is on the Monaro Fire page for viewing.

 

Yes but for those without FB.

 

https://www.facebook.com/MonaroRFS/

 

https://www.facebook.com/MonaroRFS

Went hunting through the council site and links. Below is an RFS fire spread prediction for Saturday. Sorry but it's not painting a rosy picture.

 

Again, can’t be viewed without a FB account. No good for @linked_recoveries

 

The video was running, I am not on FB.

 

Facebook RFS?

Facepalm.gif

 

Answering my own question I'm told around 22 people will remain in Thredbo for tomorrow. We know a lot of them and our thoughts are with them all.

 

They don't need lifties on hand to run the lifts. Mountain management can put a very small handful of chairs on evenly spread out and just keep it running. With Kosci chair engine at the top though I'm not sure if it's a viable option?

 

The app now shows a fire has begun in the Geehi mountains - adjacent to, but a long way from, Guthega. That's not good. There's another (weirdly) reported on the Kalkite Road.

Adelaide is sitting at 40° right now. So I guess it's safe to say it's not going to snow

The alpine area forecast for Thredbo has been updated. The south westerly change previously predicted to arrive with the cold front late tomorrow has now become 'tending westerly'. Rain remains in the forecast.

 

I wonder how they are going today actually. BOM obs show a stiff westerly has been blowing at the top of Thredbo topping 50km/hr at times with humidities dropping below 20% and now close to 10%. NSW RFS map does not show much spread but not show how much that reflects reality.

 

Its 40 at Wagga Wagga - about 160kms away as the crow flies. Khancoban AWS is down??

 

Kalkite was extinguished.

 

I noticed khancobam AWS was not updating on Tuesday, so perhaps having some issues.

 

That shows Thredbo gone... much of Valley too.

 

Yep. It's almost to Jindy. I expect it's put together as an extreme worst case scenario in all directions from the existing fire front.

 

I'm not so sure it is extreme worst case. My understanding is that the predicitions to date have been undercooked in most circumstances.

 

Will it just be the Kosciuszko Express running or any other lifts? Good luck to everyone in Thredbo tomorrow.

 

No lifts running. Park is closed. Thredbo is closed.

 

what's the thinking behind running the lifts?

 

Thinking of you Thredbo and all the rest of the High Country at the moment. Feeling useless and hopeless here in Sydney with many friends and colleagues involved in the NSW South Coast and the Corryong fires and watching this beautiful country under threat. I hope anyone left up there fighting these fires has a positive weather change on their side. Community centred leadership at its best, on display this New Year. Forget the pollies in Canberra... May Ullr & the Ngarigo & Wiradjuri spirits protect you all x

 

I didn't mean for tourists, I meant as a means of reducing the stress on the haul rope from the heat. It was mentioned on this thread as a means of reducing the damage from the fires

 

Running the lifts evens out the stress on the haul rope from potential hot spots along the line

 

smart!

 

The snow guns are on the cable at the top of Crackenback

 

They’ve already admitted the fire models haven’t been keeping up with the reality on the ground, and have potentially left people under-prepared. I’m anticipating they’ve recalibrated things and are now publishing a worst case scenario.

 

I'd hope it's a worst case scenario

 

For those who don't have Instagram

 

These things are likely not ready to recalibrate on the fly. Sure the scientist that made the model would have that ability but it's a step from that to being confident to use it operationally.

 

Im not on insta, if its not too much trouble to bring across any info or pics as they come to hand? Cheers

 

You don't need to be on IG to view public pages ie this is three's public page.

https://instagram.com/thredboresort?igshid=dttf3ia3scqs

Not sure where above pics are from but if link is shared you can follow it without joining if Page is public.

 

No according to the Monaro RFS Chief. The worst model runs for today had the front reaching Berridale. I just wish they included a coincidence Level with the prediction maps.

 

The Commissioner stated this morning that the maps are a ‘worst case’ but not always able to account for the behaviour of spot fires ahead of the main front, and they can only go on the weather predictions at the time of preparation.

TP I guess the further away the lower the risk. I hope so, the ember attack zone is frickin huge.