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Tropical weather predictions.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by markopolo, Mar 9, 2007.

  1. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    Preface: Total Weather Amateur !!

    How far out do the predictitve charts for an area like Weipa hold any veracity ??

    More specifically: First week in April, will I be fishing the Creeks for Barra or can I go outside chasing GT's ?
     
  2. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK , can anyone point me in the direction of long range views in regard to what may be brewing in the Gulf and heading east. I know that Weipa (and the tip) are quite unusual micro climates as they generally do not get touched by cyclones (with notable exceptions !)
     
  3. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    Anything outside of two weeks and you are dreaming for a forecast and even inside two weeks will be difficult, it is just so changeable with the monsoon season there is no way to give you an accurate answer. April is still obviously cyclone season and SST's are warm so would not be likely to give you any clue for another week and a half...

    I can tell you it will be warm and humid with a min around 24 and a max around 31 degrees. As for how windy, sunny, stormy it will be, you will have to wait for that one. The monsoon season is rather active though so you can assume there will be some wet periods, how long are you there for??
     
  4. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just a week, this will be trip 6 ! Last year we slotted nicely inbetween two late march early april cyclones !
     
  5. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    Ok this might help but it's not guaranteed.

    Tropical cyclones are statistically related to the Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO). This is a wave like pattern of low pressure or high convection and it's opposite that travels around the equator every 30-40 days.

    The following graphic maps the MJO with blue representing the enhanced convection and orange/red suppressed convection.

    In short if blue appears over tropical Australia say around 140E on the graphic then there is a greater chance of tropical cyclones forming at this time of year.

    [​IMG]

    It should be noted that TCs can form at any time but they are more frequent during MJO enhanced convection phases (Blue).

    Based on the current graphic it looks like enhanced cyclone activity should occur around the end of March ending around the first week of April. Having said that I should keep and eye on it because the variation in time scales can be as much as 10 days from one phase to the next.
     
    #5 Falls expat, Mar 12, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. Spiceman

    Spiceman Part of the Furniture

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    But it only seems to go to 1march, it doesn't mention April Falls Expat?? [​IMG]

    By the way I enjoyed you comments on the MJO... thanks for that info. Is that the right graphic you are telling us about?
     
    #6 Spiceman, Mar 12, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  7. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks FE !!! This is a very educational thread !
     
  8. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    Spicey, if you notice the graphic is a 5 day running mean of the current location of the MJO.

    You can see that the time versus Longitude relationship is roughly linear therefore you can extrapolate forwards in time to give a rough estimate of when the next MJO phase is going to pass over northern Australia.

    Not particularly accurate I know, but for example if you look at the current chart as of 13th of March you can see that there is period of supressed convection (orange) about to pass over tropical Australia. This should mean reduced rainfall and a lower chance of TCs forming from the end of this week onwards for a week or two. Then after this period a return of enhanced convection phase of the MJO is likely for another week or two. This will be roughly the last week of march and first week of April hence my previous prediction.
     
    #8 Falls expat, Mar 13, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  9. markopolo

    markopolo Naughty Corner Resident Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is certainly a lull in Weipa right now, no wind, not a lot of small thunderstorm activity and relatively low temps.