Predictions UL Cold Pool 11-12th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The upper level low has been flirted with by GFS & The Canuck for the last 4 or so days now. On and off and now it's trending. AXS seems vaguely interested. 50/50 chance IMO.

    It may very well get a start if the jet allows and it shifts enough Eastward. If so, we may see a trace to 5cm out of it IMO.
    EC
    [​IMG]

    GFS
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    The Canuck
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC has the UL Low heading offshore on Friday, if we see that kind of onshore flow through Gippsland we may see more than a few cents out of it IMO.
    That cold air injection at height above the mainland means that High is less likely to anchor anytime soon. I am into this set-up.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    It's illustrated well on anoms.
    as you would expect.
    interest shown .
    EC here, GFS and Canadian GDPS all similiar.
    I won't post them all just for k.i.s.s sake
    lets hope we get a prime time upgrade.
    yes I'm headed uphill later in the week :)
    [​IMG]
     
  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Potential is there....
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Wandering upper level cold pool into Tasman low with on shore SE flow... snow in strange places anyone?!
     
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  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Plotted on the plug-in synoptic surface charts this morning.
    Needs colder air.
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Yup.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Hmmmm.
    hopecasting somewhat but could be ok bit higher up
    [​IMG]
     
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    looks cold enough on all the models. I'm just not sure the moisture is gonna line up with the cold.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, as you pointed out earlier it's two different systems. East coast trough and the cold pool.
    The chance of them interacting will only come about if the cold pool remains over the south east - static.
    I think it's got buckleys at this point.

    The snot in strange places is exclusive to Western Vic where the coldest air has depth IMO.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS checks into the party (will update).

    [​IMG]

    If it came off today it'd put flurries on Macedon, Mount William and anywhere above 1000m IMO.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    Playing surface is a real mess from the wind. Hope this comes through with a nice 5-10cm layer.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Can't see anything more than a chance of a dusting IMO, but the real discussion is around how cool things will remain into next week. Snowmakers will be busy.
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Damn OCD must be kicking in...
    [​IMG]

     
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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    the irony of you posting that twice is not lost on me...
     
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  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    good refreeze to solidify the new snow into the base will be good after last weeks hairdryer and subsequent thaw.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Intentional perhaps?
    lol
     
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  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Pressure no good, laughable almost, shear excellent.
     
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  19. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yep,
    did observe the modelled 850 and 500 winds earlier
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, and I am shooting aerials over Mungo NP Thursday AM. Might be sitting lower than usual here... Or not at all if I am eating into the ceiling.
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    still a dusting or 5-10 on the cards.
    pressure be high tho so nothing significant ,
    but I'll take it for a bit of cream on top of the base.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    uppers are only just...
    [​IMG]
     
  22. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    EC gives me some hope too.
    maybe a little more Friday night.
    stretching to the 4-day time stamp
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Can't see it pushing in any further than Buller TBH

    IMO
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Axs still modelling 24hrs precip for the NSW mtns.
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    I expect Jindy flurry
     
  27. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    Interesting set up this cold pool. On face value you would say it looks convectively unstable. A quick look at GFS forecast ascents suggests a 12 deg C free convection temperature and anything above this would go to the tropopause.

    I know it is only a GFS forecast so missing a lot of layer detail. However, forecast max temps for Albury Wodonga region are expected to be around 12-13 deg C on Thurs. If this had happened in August or Sept with stronger sun this cold cut off would have exploded into thunderstorms with thunder snow. Oh and of course one other missing feature....moisture....but apart from this ....what have the "Romans done for us" to quote Monty Python.
     

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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Well said. Yeah, I agree.
    It quiet possibly would’ve had a differing result if the cold pool bogged it self further East, near Eden where it ingested warm Tasman moisture and created onshore flow through the backdoor behind Tas.

    It had a slim chance whilst it lasted.
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    This was where my hope was being based.
    Have previously had some good events in these circumstances.
    Edit ... back to the skew T tutorials .... googles free convection...
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Good chance of a flurry or two for CT's down to 900m, Thursday night IMO. As Falls pointed to above, it's simply lacking moisture.

    Even the Badja should see something.
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    It's all out to Sea.
    OCF only suggesting less than 5mm today.
    Anyways will be my first oz turns for season Friday regardless.
    Yeeuw.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Flights over Western Victoria ~4pm today look fun.
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Perfect for aerial photography.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    haha. Yeah, I think we'll stay low for the ferry in today (sub 10k ft), but tomorrow should be better (sub 3k ft). Fingers crossed.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  36. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]Could be something for black Friday, although out of the date range of this thread.
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    I won't be sitting on my deck in Jindy this time tomorrow.
    I expect snow from mid morning on.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Favour Thredbo.
     
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  40. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker
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