Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

Ruckle

One of Us
Jul 8, 2019
141
285
163
Woodend VIC 578m ASL
Ended up with a high of 8.7c so 4 days of August and yet to reach 10c. '
Some breaks in the sky when I was putting the bins out a few minutes ago so maybe the lower DP's approaching and light winds might get a drop off tonight.

Thursday night into Friday looks real interesting though tempering that with the lack of showers that usually fall at night in cold set ups. If they do, they look white here at this stage. Wont sleep waiting for next model update ha ha.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
10,491
10,478
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
Fairly clear morning here in Melbourne. Light winds, not too cold either.
Not much to see until tomorrow late afternoon I think.
Yesterday morning was perfect for smashing out 20 kms + on the push bike. It was cool and dry out along the Yarra trail from Heidelberg to Warrandyte and back.
I was feeling fit but not as fit as I will be after I have XC skied kms+ on some fresh snow on early Next week.
 

WarrandyteWX

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Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
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Not here anymore.
What are our rainfall predictions for this period of weather?
Locally (Warrandyte), am expecting 35mm between tomorrow night and Sunday evening.
Hoping for some decent hail/sleet showers overnight Thursday.
 

WarrandyteWX

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
363
Not here anymore.
Breezy morning, cracking sunrise.

IMG_20190806_071317.jpg
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,768
84,922
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Quite a strong head-breeze for the ride in to work.
Steady light rain from East Hawthorn in. Only nuisance value though.
 

Ruckle

One of Us
Jul 8, 2019
141
285
163
Woodend VIC 578m ASL
Central parts didn't get the warmth in the west of the state today. City max was lower than BOM forecast last night and here at home I failed to reach 10 again and I thought today was the day. Breezy and cloudy at times with a high of 9.4c after an early morning deluge of 0.4mm!

Starting to get excited about the weather extravaganza from now till Sunday night. Lots of whispers locally about snow, will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
 

WarrandyteWX

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
363
Not here anymore.
No warnings issued for Vicco as yet (0700hrs) but expect a fair few to pop up later this morning to cover the upcoming system.

Flood Watches for Upper Yarra and Bunyip likely. Maybe NE rivers.
Road Weather Alert would be prudent for tomorrow morning and Friday (at this stage).
 
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Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,768
84,922
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Yeh, I was just thinking this system is ripe for the usual flooding spots. No doubt these will appear later today.

Looks like there was a spot or two of rain overnight - roads were damp in places. Although the sun is shining now, the winds are really starting to whip up.
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
10,491
10,478
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
Yeh, I was just thinking this system is ripe for the usual flooding spots. No doubt these will appear later today.

Looks like there was a spot or two of rain overnight - roads were damp in places. Although the sun is shining now, the winds are really starting to whip up.
Yes, the SES will become busy until Monday I think.
 
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WarrandyteWX

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Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
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Not here anymore.
Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts


Issued at 11:01 am EST on Wednesday 7 August 2019.

Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and northwesterly winds are expected to develop later tonight about the Wimmera and then extend to remaining districts during Thursday. Areas likely to be affected include the Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Mallee, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

http://reg.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/sheep.shtml
 
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DiscoStuAU

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Ski Pass
May 30, 2015
1,986
5,266
363
Melbourne City, VIC
raincast.html


50mm+ for Melbourne according to the latest GFS run. Surely will get some flood warnings for the Yarra?
Impressive totals for the city and great for the catchments in the east.

Calm and meh day in the city. You'd never know something big was approaching, tons of sail boats out in the bay this Arvo - making the most of the calm weather I suspect
 
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Wally

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 26, 2010
823
836
263
39
Franga
You'd think so CC.
Surprised how few warnings are out by now.
No updated (1605 district - 1620 metro) forecasts yet. Me thinks things are a changing...

Most rivers (Vic) are running pretty low ATM. And with this system, IMO the precipitation will fall as snow hence no flood watches at this stage.
 
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WarrandyteWX

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Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
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Not here anymore.
Late issue by the BoM, but worthy

Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, West and South Gippsland, Wimmera and parts of East Gippsland and North East Forecast Districts.

SWW 20190807 1730.png


 
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Ruckle

One of Us
Jul 8, 2019
141
285
163
Woodend VIC 578m ASL
Streak ended today with a high of 10.2c. Light rain has commenced here so event underway. Temp back to 6.3 and pretty epic satellite already.
The SWW is interesting mentioning areas above 500m and also looking at models, anywhere some of those 850hpa winds mix will be pretty serious stuff.
After the 00z run I am cautiously excited (haha) about the next few days.
 

doogasnow

One of Us
Mar 7, 2010
1,284
891
363
Streak ended today with a high of 10.2c. Light rain has commenced here so event underway. Temp back to 6.3 and pretty epic satellite already.
The SWW is interesting mentioning areas above 500m and also looking at models, anywhere some of those 850hpa winds mix will be pretty serious stuff.
After the 00z run I am cautiously excited (haha) about the next few days.
It’s on like donkey kong Ruck lol
 
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DiscoStuAU

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Ski Pass
May 30, 2015
1,986
5,266
363
Melbourne City, VIC
Streak ended today with a high of 10.2c. Light rain has commenced here so event underway. Temp back to 6.3 and pretty epic satellite already.
The SWW is interesting mentioning areas above 500m and also looking at models, anywhere some of those 850hpa winds mix will be pretty serious stuff.
After the 00z run I am cautiously excited (haha) about the next few days.
I have a friend who lives in Gisborne and she and I will be messaging throughout the day on Friday and Saturday for potential flurries at her place... She loves the cold and snow and is overjoyed by this week's weather.

An impressive run of days below 10, how many was it out of interest?
 

Ruckle

One of Us
Jul 8, 2019
141
285
163
Woodend VIC 578m ASL
I have a friend who lives in Gisborne and she and I will be messaging throughout the day on Friday and Saturday for potential flurries at her place... She loves the cold and snow and is overjoyed by this week's weather.

An impressive run of days below 10, how many was it out of interest?
6 days in a row.
Funnily enough a friend of mine and fellow weather nut lived across the road from my current house from approx. 2005 to 2008. I was looking at her August records today and she had an August in that timeframe with no sub 10 days. The following year she managed 5 in a row. So this run has been reasonably notable. I am in my 3rd August at this location. When you couple it with whats about to happen its even more interesting.
 
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Big_Red_60

One of Us
Apr 17, 2018
347
740
263
TAMBO UPPER
0mm in Tambo Upper. Hoping the low on Sat/Sun plays ball and we get a bit then. EC, CMC and GFS suggesting it will, but still a few days out. Won't believe until I can actually hear rain drops on the roof. Meanwhile, overcast and windy this morning.
 

WarrandyteWX

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
363
Not here anymore.
0mm in Tambo Upper. Hoping the low on Sat/Sun plays ball and we get a bit then. EC, CMC and GFS suggesting it will, but still a few days out. Won't believe until I can actually hear rain drops on the roof. Meanwhile, overcast and windy this morning.

You can add ACCESS to the list of models keen on some East Gippsland love. As mentioned in the predictions thread by Donzah, 982hPa low off Gabo still showing.

Locally, around 11mm, not including a rogue shower that developed in the past 30 mins.
 
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Mishka

Hard Yards
Jul 10, 2015
12
10
53
I’ve got to fly from Adelaide to Melbourne at 4pm - straight through the heart of this beast - if we get off the ground it’s sure gonna be fun.
 

WarrandyteWX

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
363
Not here anymore.
oops, sorry about that.
I prefer to be aware of what may be in store, than expecting a smooth flight and then striking a bumpy affair.
Enjoy that glass of your preferred drink on arrival. :)
 

WarrandyteWX

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 10, 2019
2,221
3,593
363
Not here anymore.
Thunderstorm Forecast

Issued at 9:46 am Thursday, 8 August 2019,
Valid until midnight on Thursday, 8 August 2019.

There is a risk of thunderstorms about much of the State today. A significant cold front is forecast to enter the southwest of the State later today, and we will likely see an increase in Severe Thunderstorm risk in this area. There is a risk of isolated destructive wind and heavy rainfall, particularly about the southwest.

TS Forecast 20190808.png
 
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