VIC | Rain/Flooding/Storms/Snow - NOV 21st - 23rd *weather warning updates*

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Stratus, Nov 16, 2008.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Well not too much longer after this last nice little system, a much WETTER one looks on the horizon.

    A low pressure system looks to develop west of SA over the upcoming few days and slowly but steadily slide east, gaining strength as it passes over VIC, at this stage on early Wednesday.

    It looks like we'll see wide spread showers / rain across the state with totals of 15 - 25mm in the North, Central and West of Victoria, and possibly up to 45mm+ in the East of the state as the low looks to stall for a while (thanks to a blocking high just west of NZ), and may suck in some moisture.

    There is the possibility of storms in the North West on Tuesday night, moving into Central areas throughout Wednesday and the possibility of some heavy storms over the Alps on Wedesday night. Melbourne could see 15 - 30mm at this stage.

    This is a pretty decent looking system.
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Also as this system makes its way across, Adelaide could pick up a cool 60mm+.
     
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Its looking pretty good if you aren't near the coast, according to the BOM models. The falls drop to only about 5mm as you get only slightly further south than Melbourne, like Wilsons Prom.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    GFS trends to agree.
    [​IMG]
    For the next 10 days we should get some nice accumulations assuming this comes off. I like how it centers over our catchments - no doubt that this will change.
    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Nov 16, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    ALL models still agreeing.

    GASP is following this system better then GFS, as the latter model suggests the low will form in a different spot and move across the state furthur north.

    Eastern VIC and alps are now looking at seeing well over 50mm.
     
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    looks the goods. i just washed my car, of course its going to rain.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Well I hope it comes off, because our rainwater tank has accumulated virtually nothing out of the last two events. I just found a tennis ball blocking the downpipe. [​IMG]
     
    #7 Claude Cat, Nov 16, 2008
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Afternoon GFS update has gone right off this now [​IMG]
    Now looking at 5mm or less for Melbourne. Looks a lot better for southern NSW (Sydney south).
    Next Saturday looks cold with the 540 line into east gippsland .
     
    #8 Claude Cat, Nov 16, 2008
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  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    GASP, LAPS, MLAPS and EC have this system pretty spot on at this stage, GFS has been swishing and churning around the last few updates and is the odd one out, so i'm ignoring it totally.

    But good observation about the next system coming through on Sat Claude, this could be a very nice follow up.


     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    I'll post the models up this evening when all have updated [​IMG]
     
    #10 Stratus, Nov 16, 2008
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  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Afternoon EC has the low a little further south, perhaps centered over Victoria on Thursday, while GFS has it in NSW
    LAPS has the low passing higher with main band just above Adelaide on Wednesday & also with NSW south coast doing well.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    BOM charts look ok, although Melbourne forecast is hardly encouraging.
    [​IMG]
     
    #12 Claude Cat, Nov 16, 2008
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  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    The funny thing is, GFS has a completely different scenario showing the trough moving over Central Australia towards the eastern seaboard and then developing into a low as an ECL before sliding down south into VIC. However all the other charts show the trough developing into a low near Adelaide and sliding down to the SE into VIC.

    So it looks like LAPS and GASP have the system moving in from the NW, passing over Central and NE areas then progressing to the East. From those scenarios it looks like a hit or miss for major falls in Melbourne, although definately the outer Eastern and North Eastern suburbs would receive a bit of rain.

    This system is really going to favor Eastern VIC and the Alps the most, Gippsland will get some much needed rain.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    EC has been reasonably solid with this one for the last few days, lets hope it's right. GASP tonight still looks good too.
     
  15. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    I really hope so. Just got back from Omeo and it is brown the whole way thru the valley. All the livestock have eaten most of the grass and nothing more is really growing. They got about 1mm out of the rain last weekend and that is all they have had for a month.

    Bring on the rain.
     
    #15 Yardsale, Nov 17, 2008
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Most of the models this morning have the moisture in southern NSW, with only a bit for Victoria.
    [​IMG]
     
    #16 Claude Cat, Nov 17, 2008
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  17. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    I won't complain about 10mm, but those GFS charts continue to look too good to be true. They have been promising up to 50mm in the past for us but havent delivered. Good if southern NSW gets all that rain though, they probably need it more than we do. [​IMG] Our tanks may again be filled by rain just before they run out... [​IMG]
     
    #17 ice_man, Nov 17, 2008
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    This afternoons charts show even less - in the 5mm range. Lets hope we get a thunderstorm or two to bolster the falls.
     
  19. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #19 The Plowking, Nov 18, 2008
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  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #20 The Plowking, Nov 18, 2008
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  21. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Still looking good for Thursday - Sunday [​IMG]
     
    #21 skiflat, Nov 18, 2008
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  22. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    BOM models at the moment look good for Thursday across West Gippsland, northeast Victoria, NSW along the ranges and not too bad for Melbourne either. But on their 4 day total from Sat until next Tuesday there appears to be a good 50mm for Melbourne at this stage.
    BOM Model forecast rainfall
     
    #22 ice_man, Nov 18, 2008
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Yes, this mornings charts are an upgrade for Victoria. EC seems to have tracked this one best.
    The models have been flipping around like crazy on this one.
    It's still going to be hit and miss for Melbourne, but the NE should do well and possibly gippsland.
    The BOM isn't really on board with this yet either. I also don't get the difference between "melbourne" forecast and "city" forecast; one has "scattered showers" while the other shows storms & Rain. Weird.

    Forecast for Wednesday
    Cloudy. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms during the evening. Light winds.
    City
    Chance of storms. Rain.

    Forecast for Thursday
    Cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Scattered showers. Light winds tending south to southwesterly up to 35 km/h by early evening.
    City
    Chance of storms then showers.

    Forecast for Friday
    Cloudy. Isolated showers. Winds southwesterly averaging 20 to 35 km/h.
    City
    Few showers.
     
  24. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Could be nice for some early morning photos if the tentative up to 10cm of snow forecast as at this time, comes off....as part of this system.
     
  25. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Yep it is going to be hit and miss for Melbourne, although i am pretty confident to say we should see at least 10mm.

    The BOM charts have stayed put really well over the last few days, where as GFS has been chopping around.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    GASP and LAPS are inline very nicely, and still show the low coming in from the NW and delivering nice amounts of moisture, EC shows a similar scenario however...GFS yet again is showing the low slide over VIC before being sucked down off the east coast and producing very little inland rain.

    [​IMG]

    The Alps, NE and E VIC should easily see over 45mm. There is also the possibility of storms around C areas as there is a lot of instability.






    The SECOND low coming through on Saturday, looks again to set its self up in a similar position to this one and deliver another 30mm+ for Eastern VIC, but will also favor Southern VIC and the system at this stage is also SNOW BEARING and could drop 10-15cm. [​IMG]
     
    #25 Stratus, Nov 18, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Virtually all the models predict some wild weather in Bass Strait / East of Tasmania - I wouldn't want to be in a boat.
    We should also see some "wrap around" of the low in east gippsland getting a 2nd bite of the cherry (so to speak).
     
  27. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    some at WZ are thinking of similarities to the 98 syd-hobart
     
  28. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    so could this system be considered a 'classic' ECL that many on here salivate over??

    ive got a ski tournament on this weekend in albury.. looks like it will be fresh and wet! [​IMG]
     
    #28 h2oskier, Nov 18, 2008
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    It's not an ECL (as far as I'm concerned) as they travel down the east coast. This one is traveling west to east, but wraps around itself for a second hit.
    The latest BOM charts show this well, a classic double whammy.
    [​IMG]
     
    #29 Claude Cat, Nov 18, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Just look at those pressures! It's going to be interesting.
     
  31. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Yep you certainly don't see two strong consecutive systems like this every day!

    I dont know what you mean by it "wraps around itself"...the second system is a completely different low.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    You're probably right - just trying to figure out how that 2nd low forms so strongly in the space of 12 hours on Friday (although in reality it's just dropping 9Hpa).
     
  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Yeah it confused me a bit the first time i looked at it.

    This shows it a bit clearer though:

    [​IMG]
     
    #33 Stratus, Nov 18, 2008
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Looking at the BOM Friday 10am chart, I assume it's the low just NW of Adelaide (999) that slides SE and intensifies?
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    LAPS is quite different to GFS, I guess this is the one BOM are deriving their 2pm charts from.
    [​IMG]
     
    #35 Claude Cat, Nov 18, 2008
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  36. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Thats still a fair drop in pressure for 12 hours. Interesting how the high pressure belt has completely broken and allowing these lows into Victoria. But that 976hPa system should belong in the Southern Ocean near Antarctica... not here! [​IMG]
     
    #36 ice_man, Nov 18, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    PWOOOOAAAARRRR!!!

    [​IMG]

    This second system is really fast moving, its going to be a wintery blast.

    Very excited for GASP and GFS updates hehe.
     
    #37 Stratus, Nov 18, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Back to current times now and there look to be a few little storms developing NWest of the Alps around Yarrawonga / Wangarrata. The mountain areas could see a few heavy falls and storms in the next few hours as the initial band passes through.
     
  39. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Someone mentioned pressure, Sandy should have popped up!
     
  40. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    My watch is saying 1008hPa..... oh sorry, that's here in Japan!!!!

    The forecasts seem to be indicating 976hPa in the centre, which is rather low!!!!
     
    #40 Sandy, Nov 18, 2008
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  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    As that band has to push over the Alps we would be lucky to get anything tonight.
     
    #41 ice_man, Nov 18, 2008
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  42. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Been misty/drizzle/light rain here for the past two hours

    It has only really just made the ground moist at best
     
  43. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Attending a wedding in Halls Gap on Sat, could be interesting
     
  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Ahh it looks like everything has been downgraded a fair bit for this first system rainfall wise, GASP has come inline with what GFS has been suggesting the last few days. [​IMG]

    Melbourne should still see 10mm up until Thursday night, and Gippsland over 20mm but the low is going to position itself too far east to produce any really decent rain. It was going to be a bit of a hit and miss with this system.

    However the SECOND system on Saturday is still looking awesome, GFS and GASP and EC are all pretty roughly inline, suggesting 15/20mm+ for Melb, more for Eastern VIC and 15cm or so of snow above 1700m.

    Oh and lots of wind....not the best day to be outdoors!
     
    #44 Stratus, Nov 19, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    It looks as if it will be pretty wet for you Belly. Or at least very windy... at the moment BOM models predict the heaviest falls on Sat to be in West Gippsland. GFS appears to show a similar situation. GASP appears to think it will be spread throughout southern Victoria. Looks as if East Gippsland will get a fair bit on Sunday as the low lingers over the Tasman and whips up some showers.
     
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Oh. And BOM has forecasted snow down to 1300m in West Gippsland. Looks like many resorts may get a dump. [​IMG]
     
    #46 ice_man, Nov 19, 2008
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  47. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Yes looking good....if only snow-forecast's pretty picture comes off (about 20cm at 1650m for Hotham and same at front valley PB)....and has upgraded a wee bit since last night. Still some way to go though. Will be in the mountains saturday and sunday...NSW.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Lets hope this comes off - would be great for Thomson dam.
    [​IMG]
     
    #48 Claude Cat, Nov 19, 2008
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  49. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    Yeah, today is looking like a fizzer for Melb, compared to the forecast from a couple of days ago anyway
     
    #49 Belly, Nov 19, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  50. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: VIC| Heavy Showers / Rain / Wide Spread Storms - November 18th - 20th

    hmm i need to go to hotham on the weekend....might have to pack the planks, or at least the chains