WA Coast opinion 18th/19th Nov

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Darb, Nov 10, 2017.

  1. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Hi Brains Trust, thoughts on the weather, in particular any precip, for Saturday 18th November? Coastal - Jurien Bay way.

    Noticed one long range forecast reckoned 4-5mm of precip, GFS seemed to indicate half a mm and mostly on the friday night.
     
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Looks to be wet on the Saturday on EC, being at it's peak in the middle of the day. Around 5-10mm. Details will change though.
     
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  3. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Dedicated Member

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    Dunno where that chart's from but it's sure not anywhere near Perth or Jurien. At forecast 36 degrees for Perth, any rain will be from thunderstorms and probably only late over the hills. Seabreeze has Lancelin at 31 with an early sea breeze and a 30% chance of rain. I don't see it.
     
  4. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I believe you are looking at today's BOM forecast. This thread is about next weekend. EC is still holding onto rain for Saturday next weekend.
     
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  5. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 Dedicated Member
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    Rain in southern WA, in November.... wish we were that lucky!!
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yep, Saturday is looking damp to me - that's on EC.
    GFS - you might be lucky - there's a trough bringing rain that seems to be a little inland for most of Saturday, although the evening looks damp.
     
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  7. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    May need to postpone some plans!
     
  8. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Summer Thunderstorms would be fine. Cold shitty front wouldn’t be
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Differing opinions between GFS & EC. It's a bit of gamble until models settle on the troughing through the Gascyone. But neither offer much hope for dry conditions with 5-10mm looking like the going rate, at this stage (maybe 30-40% chance of dry conditions IMO).

    As a side note, I've been in the West since Wednesday eve and there's been good tower growth of the hills over the last couple of days with the surface trough through the Wheatbelt & Goldfields districts. I was up Serpentine Dam way on Friday and things were popping up left/right and centre. Not much came from them though.

     
  10. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Cheers pow i think I’d be safe to make a call by maybe Tuesday ?

    Some nice looking clouds out to the east today hoping we see some nice storms! Wishful thinking perhaps
     
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  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Really beautiful cloud formations and great photography complimenting them. Great work @POW_hungry

    TBH in the past few weeks following overseas snow forecasts, I have lost quite a lot of faith in GFS, hence why I am leaning the EC way. But this is a different situation I guess...

    Anyway for a third opinion, the latest GEM model run shows some rainfall in the area on the Sunday, not Saturday.... still a way to go.

    @Darb probably best to wait to Tuesday or Wednesday. The models should have converged by then.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I bloody hope not! I am out in Bickley for an outdoor wedding on a Vineyard this arvo.
    Sure does give the sky some dimension when looking West from the Darling Ranges though.

    Yeah make a call Tuesday if you can, BOM will also have their relatively locked-in say on Saturday by then also.
     
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  13. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Dedicated Member

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    My bad.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looking better on EC, but worse on GFS today.
     
  15. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Yeah not looking good
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It's a tricky one, Brad. The upper level disturbance is still there in this date range, albeit more pronounced on GFS.
    EC puts things a little earlier than GFS (with the worst on Friday). The jet looks pinch and usher the low through swiftly on Friday eve, significantly reducing the likelihood of heavy stuff impacting Saturday-day.

    TBH IMO, it's not looking much more than 2-3mm of showers through Saturday AM with mild temps and overcast skis in the range. Fine Sunday.
    So this said, I am not sure what you have planned but I'd be considering a kick on, at this point.

     
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  17. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Awesome post. The plan was a beach weekend at a special spot with dads n lads, ie us blokes with our young sons swagging it , and then exploring stockyard Gully caves on Sunday

    At this stage a bit of drizzle and cooler temps could be tolerated but now I’m seeing pretty strong blowy westerly winds to go with it

    Thing I’ll make a final call Tuesday night toward postponement. Trouble is the stars had aligned for many of the guys to attend that won’t happen weekend after for various reasons , bummer

    This was a few weeks back (only a few of us instead of the dozen odd slated for this w/e)

    Some weird shit going on with my man tits in that photo

     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not much more than 10-15kts IMO (ignore the 500mb prog above, that’s upper level winds).

    Looks like a good plan. Jurien Bay is damn good place for those shenanigans!
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Worth locking it in Brad, in case you haven't.
    I am seeing partly cloudy morning showers (2-5mm), cleared out by midday. GFS likes storms during the day, but I reckon EC has this one in the bag with a clearing trend.
    Max temp around 21-24C
    Winds NW ~15kts, shifting westerly, backing off to 10kts by the evening.
     
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  20. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Cheers pow it’s besn postponed , chasing a warmer / dry start weekend after fingers crossed!
     
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  21. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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    Hey @POW_hungry what's your thoughts on next weekend 25-26th A long range forecast i just read said 40 - 42c, that's got to be wrong?
     
  22. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Inland yes, Coast no. Which one did you read?
    Yr.no says 30 on saturday, 31 on Sunday.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah tops around 30C and looking clear for the moment, Brad.
    Difficult to see how cloud-cover will be this far out but you might be lucky, all depends on the inland surface trough in the Gascoyne once again.

    Probably your best window, thus far.
     
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  24. Darb

    Darb Old And Crusty
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