WA WA (Perth) thoughts for 20th & 21st May?

[Darb]

Hi All,

Have never ventured deep into weather, and usually I don't trust more than 5 day forecast ... BUT I am wondering what peoples thoughts are for chance of precip on Saturday and Sunday 20th and 21st May?

This site says nil rain : http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=w00&dc=disablecookies

This one says heavy rain the entire weekend : http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Australia/Western-Australia/Perth/14-Day-Forecast.aspx

Thoughts?

 

[Claude Cat]

Saturday morning looks very damp perhaps clearing later, I'm unwilling to speculate on Sunday at this stage.

 

[Darb]

Bummer i was kinda hoping the elders was going to be the case!

 

[POW Hungry]

Bummer i was kinda hoping the elders was going to be the case!

Gotta take into consideration that mandatory acknowledgement of the 'Long Range Disclaimer' when looking at Elders IMO. A good synopsis usually, but seldom does their 28-dayer hold much water, so-to-speak.
According to all major models, the 20th cold front looks like the strongest the SW land division has seen in a month or two if it comes off.

 

[Darb]

Cheers Pow_hungry ... yeah not looking great is it!
Btw I never knew you were Tyson!

 

[POW Hungry]

Cheers Pow_hungry ... yeah not looking great is it!
Btw I never knew you were Tyson!

We all have our secrets, Brad!

 

[Claude Cat]

Latest EC run shows it's substantially wet on both days.

 

[Darb]

Yeah not pretty.

 

[POW Hungry]

Interesting cut-off system this one, there is agreement amongst the models that this one has the potential to bomb S/SW of WA. Rain totals are looking like they may exceed 50mm in some parts of the South West land div. Perth to pick up ~30-40mm over Friday night to Sunday.
Severe thunderstorms Saturday morning. And gale force winds throughout Saturday are looking likely.

...snow to 1000m on Saturday arvo IMO

Perth weather just got really interesting following a rainless April!

 

[Claude Cat]

Interesting cut-off system this one, there is agreement amongst the models that this one has the potential to bomb S/SW of WA. Rain totals are looking like they may exceed 50mm in some parts of the South West land div. Perth to pick up ~30-40mm over Friday night to Sunday.
Severe thunderstorms Saturday morning. And gale force winds throughout Saturday are looking likely.

...snow to 1000m on Saturday arvo IMO

Perth weather just got really interesting following a rainless April!

Usually all happens late May.

 

[Darb]

So what you're saying is, it wouldn't be wise to take a bunch of kindy & preschool aged children camping at the beach that weekend?

 

[Claude Cat]

What does this say to you?

 

[Darb]

Mardi Gras

 

[Rabid K9]

Perth weather just got really interesting!

Oxymoron.

 

[Darb]

So one model in this app is gfs 22km the other is the other is ecmwf 9km.

Can someone explain which is best to use ? Normally I'm a wind watcher

 

[Darb]

Ps yes the weekend is dead but now have curiousity tickled

 

[POW Hungry]

So one model in this app is gfs 22km the other is the other is ecmwf 9km.

Can someone explain which is best to use ? Normally I'm a wind watcher

You're opening a can of worms in this neck of the woods for asking which is better GFS or EC...
The 9km and 22km refers to the resolution of the model you are viewing, with the EC9km model giving you 'greater zoomed in detail' to read from than GFS22km broader area.

Thus, when looking at a specific area, such as a campsite, you'll want to be reading off EC9km as it will yield data that is more local to those coordinates.
But throw caution to the wind as both models are open to change at a +144hr projection.

My 2 cents? No camping this weekend buddy, let it go.
...but welcome to the curioisity-fuelled, head-scratching world of the the Weather Forum. Stick around, we're not finished with you yet. Haha

 

[Darb]

Ha ha thanks ok , next question what's thoughts on 27th/28th !? Have a photo shoot job that weekend (camping).

 

[blowfin]

...snow to 1000m on Saturday arvo IMO

So what you're saying is, it would be the perfect time to walk up Bluff?

 

[POW Hungry]

As in @300 hours out?
Not willing to speculate, sorry mate. Models are all over the shop beyond the next week.

This said, WA is very much in the frontal firing line though. The LWT trough suggests weekly systems for WA towards the ends of the weeks ATM.

 

[POW Hungry]

So what you're saying is, it would be the perfect time to walk up Bluff?

Having walked the track in inclement weather I wouldn't consider it wise - near the top in a white out it's very easy to become disorientated without GPS tracking.
But yes, I believe witnessing snowfall on Saturday afternoon may be possible on Bluff Knoll's peak.

 

[nfip]

You're opening a can of worms in this neck of the woods for asking which is better GFS or EC...
The 9km and 22km refers to the resolution of the model you are viewing, with the EC9km model giving you 'greater zoomed in detail' to read from than GFS22km broader area.

Thus, when looking at a specific area, such as a campsite, you'll want to be reading off EC9km as it will yield data that is more local to those coordinates.
But throw caution to the wind as both models are open to change at a +144hr projection.

My 2 cents? No camping this weekend buddy, let it go.
...but welcome to the curioisity-fuelled, head-scratching world of the the Weather Forum. Stick around, we're not finished with you yet. Haha

a mate of mine doesn't even check the weather ,
just flicks me an email or txt asking the question
despite my best supplying him of wx links. many times.

 

[Darb]

As in @300 hours out?
Not willing to speculate, sorry mate. Models are all over the shop beyond the next week.

This said, WA is very much in the frontal firing line though. The LWT trough suggests weekly systems for WA towards the ends of the weeks ATM.

Cheers, ill enquire later this week and see what you guys think

yeah it'll end up being fronts every weekend and perfect during the week! Can't mother nature get the timing right!

 

[nfip]

WA copped all the fronts peaking before they got to the Alps last year .
Year before we had a powder day seemed like every Friday in NSW.

 

[Darb]

I remember this late winter / early spring, every weekend was just absolute rubbish ... and the one or two good weekends had other obligations .. yet mid week had blue sky pearlers, windless days low 20's, cold overnight with uggies and a big fire at night.

I ended up getting shitty and taking time off work mid week to take the son camping.

 

[POW Hungry]

Looking to kick things off earlier than expected for this system @Darb with some tropical air feeding the pre-frontal on Thursday night.
Thanks to a series of downgrades over the last 2 days the bulk of this system will be felt on Friday AM and Sunday. Thunderstorms early Friday AM IMO.
25-35mm of rain Friday to Sunday.

With GFS & EC indicating snowfall levels around 1400-1500m there's no longer a chance for snow on Bluff Knoll on Saturday IMO.

 

[Rabid K9]

Looking to kick things off earlier than expected for this system @Darb with some tropical air feeding the pre-frontal on Thursday night.
Thanks to a series of downgrades over the last 2 days the bulk of this system will be felt on Friday AM and Sunday. Thunderstorms early Friday AM IMO.
25-35mm of rain Friday to Sunday.

With GFS & EC indicating snowfall levels around 1400-1500m there's no longer a chance for snow on Bluff Knoll on Saturday IMO.

Down grades par for the course for south west WA, unfortunately.

Is a well know fact though, that more than two days without sunshine & over ten mm's of rain causes catastrophic population unrest amongst the softness of Perth....

 

[Darb]

Cheers POW, any insight to the following weekend yet? or a bit early yet?

There will be blood in the streets Rabid K9

 

[POW Hungry]

Cheers POW, any insight to the following weekend yet? or a bit early yet?

There will be blood in the streets Rabid K9

Looks to be some troughing that flirts with precip (although more isolated to the Gascoyne coast) but by in large it's looking like light winds and mild conditions.
IMO, good for shooting. Polarising filter to pop the clouds and you'll be all over it.

 

[Darb]

Sweet, did have a shoot booked for next weekend (off-road, overnighter) , however likely will postpone it to make room for the "dads n kids" camping weekend with some highschool buddies that was meant to occur this weekend (rain-checked obviously)

Rain and/or excessive wind are really the only show stoppers.

Will keep an eye on it!

 

[Darb]

This site : http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Australia/Western-Australia/Perth/14-Day-Forecast.aspx

says 9mm of rain on the 27th, I like your prediction better! (all with a pinch of salt obviously).

 

[Claude Cat]

Yeh, following weekend looks mostly ok.

 

[Darb]

Cheers. what do you guys think about this site and where / what they base their models on?
I presume there'e a human or three behind these sites, or is it just pulling data from a different model somewhere?

The two that seem to be giving OK long range forecasts (usual caveats apply) have been : https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:IWESTERN110

and this one is pretty with choosing the two models ECM vs GFS https://www.windy.com/?-31.967,115.862,5

 

[POW Hungry]

Cheers. what do you guys think about this site and where / what they base their models on?
I presume there'e a human or three behind these sites, or is it just pulling data from a different model somewhere?

The two that seem to be giving OK long range forecasts (usual caveats apply) have been : https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:IWESTERN110

and this one is pretty with choosing the two models ECM vs GFS https://www.windy.com/?-31.967,115.862,5

I maybe wrong but I believe WU has its own model which is, as far as I know, not publicly shared as it's a privatised company. The flaws/beauty of WU is that it draws on data from its members and user contributors (global backyard weatherstations) so it's got such massive input. Can't really comment on accuracy though as I have limited knowledge of how it fairs.

 

[Darb]

I did like that WU had a whole heap of private citizens webcams clickable/viewable on their mapping ... which is actually pretty nice when you're trying to assess whether to head down the beach

Thanks again POW, hopefully the models for next weekend hold true. Camping will be on in earnest at the beach, dads n sons night (great for the kids, but great for dads once kids go to sleep , big fire, rum and talking showbags).