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Predictions Weak systems 23rd -29th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 19, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The models show a few weak systems during this period IMO
    These all look to be not much more than 5cm in each, but worth keeping an eye on..

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    CMC hints at something better on the 29th
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    as long as the temps stay down its a shiteload better than 80cm of snow followed by 50 - 100mm of rain.
    From what I'm seeing on the cams small regular top ups and reasonably cold temps are more than enough to ask for
    and thats what I'm seeing for atleast the next week
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Temps look pretty marginal for the 25th. It might be a good thing that there's not much moisture with this one IMO.
     
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  4. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Marginal but not too warm
    Not really damaging conditions, which is good
     
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  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of agreement from EC and GFS on the 29th. All be it drastically scaled back compared to above.
     
  6. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm seeing it in EC & GEM 240hrs.
    posting this because it looks the best. As you say it's all back from here. maybe.
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    26th looking scary on axs and better.not
     
  8. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interschools. Will be weather.
     
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  9. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    scary as in rain?
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep - but at this range is pretty meaningless!
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The 1st August has a bit of shape about it .

    [​IMG]
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    noted that yesterday in the BBQ thread. miles out but worth watching.
     
  13. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS has the hair-dryer out around July 29-30. Ugh.
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, but then you look at EC....
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd tend to believe EC over GFS at this stage.
    IMO
     
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  16. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    IMO, GFS has been way off this year when looking that far out.
     
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  17. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Love'en EC tonight. Upgrades all round with snow Sunday, snow Wednesday and a ball busting front Sat 29/30th.

    Sun

    [​IMG]

    Wed

    [​IMG]

    Sun 30th

    [​IMG]
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everything's been way off at 240hrs....
     
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  19. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Sunday night get something high up, can't see it next Wednesday and then, like we all know, its pure speculation....
    IMO
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is certainly better tonight. IMO
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC isn't exciting (like GFS), but AXS is encouraging.

     
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  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models pretty underwhelming this morning. Not exactly Victoria's Secret quality...
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    as per normal programming looks for now as simple as the strength of the blocking High..
    across the models (barring AXS).
    We'll see if the series of lows may weaken / break down as they are not big pressures on the 1020's looking at the positives.
    And I guess also how the models settle down & "refresh" today after the system that has pushed thru in last week.
     
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  24. Snowies

    Snowies One of Us

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    Doesn't look like much coming to me, mostly of the weather staying further south. At least it looks pretty dry for the most part.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    29th has gone :(
    Still think there's 5cm or so in the 23/24, and 10-15 for the 25/26, although the temperatures are a little marginal for that one.
    IMO
     
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  26. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    marginal is better than pineapple :)
     
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did the same thing yesterday. See if it comes back in this afternoon's run.
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some lunchtime 12z fodder......
    AXS on its own here for now.
    [​IMG]

    and we have agreement with the big 3. *192 hrs !
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  29. skidazza

    skidazza Hard Yards

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    Jane is a little more bullish for this period? 25cm to 40cm between the 23rd and 26th.

     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I can't see it. As I said above may be 20cm at best, but there is scope for it to change either way.
     
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  31. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Upgrade on GFS 00z Friday 21 Jul... Can I ask for another next run as well?

    Wed the 26th.

    [​IMG]
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS with you too CC

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  34. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    A bit of difference between the models for Wednesday.... like to think that GFS / AXS have the goods over EC. still can't see anything substantial on Sunday.
     
  35. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you seeing r**n for Wednesday?
     
  36. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    I am
     
  37. OlCol

    OlCol Hard Yards

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    This morning both BOM NSW and EC like this period for snow above 1300m, totals possible >50 cm.
     
  38. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Rain happens in Aus. IMO may be some pre frontal rain and then snow. Net gain.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I think things look sweeeet for the next week or so.
     
  40. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Looks like we could get consistent light top ups every couple of days but never much more than 10cm.
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 6 day snowfall


    GFS 120 hrs total snowfall

    [​IMG]

    AXS Sunday , locked in . Has been the most accurate last few weeks. IMO
    [​IMG]

    AXS WEdnesday , minty....
    [​IMG]
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS wednesday.
    850 ht 0-2 degs @ <1500 so "freeze"at 1600-1700.
    read as normal programming.
    [​IMG]


    500's willl assist. swings SW later in the day
    [​IMG]
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO late Tuesday looks on the damp side below 1600m. Could be 20cm Tuesday/Wednesday above 1600m and 10cm below
    Sunday still looks 5-10cm to me and the 28th could be another 5-10cm, but I'm less confident about that one.
     
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  44. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It would be nice to get at least one big strong cold front instead of the W.A. leftovers
     
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  45. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    That belt of high pressure is not that strong. A bit of wriggle room IMO
     
  46. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Adiabatic cooling better be good, or else I'm pessimistic below 1700/1800 for tues/wed - at least until Wednesday afternoon when things will improve.... (really only looking at axs though)
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Most of the moisture will be overnight, so that gives it half a chance.
     
  48. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the bulk of the moisture precedes the cooler air
     
  49. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM has 20-30mm, 70km/hr winds and temps 0-2c. But they're calling snow. Bet you're wishing you were there this year :rolleyes:
     
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  50. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00z Access-G gives me a bit of optimism for the coming week. Still marginal at times but probably a net gain IMO, especially above 1600m.
     
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