Predictions Weak systems 23rd -29th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 19, 2017.

  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,722
    Likes Received:
    10,343
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Situation normal
     
    Taipan likes this.
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,722
    Likes Received:
    10,343
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Best snow forecaster, caveats.
    Always bullish. Too definitive.

    Decaying fronts.
    Up to 25cm for the period with some falling as rain in for mine.
     
    rocketboy, skidazza and Claude Cat like this.
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,588
    Likes Received:
    18,308
    Location:
    Canberra
    Theta showing some fronto in it. Ok moisture but 2 metre temps looking sus IMO
     
    1st_King_of_QBN likes this.
  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,194
    Likes Received:
    20,030
    Location:
    Casey Research Station 66°17’S 110°32’E
    AXS sticking with 10-15 >1600.
    here temps for the "pre frontal" / moisture.
    [​IMG]

    cumulative totes by 10am

    [​IMG]
     
    Kletterer and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,588
    Likes Received:
    18,308
    Location:
    Canberra
    Might get pushed out to 30th.
     
    rM788 likes this.
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,588
    Likes Received:
    18,308
    Location:
    Canberra
    Obvious warm feed has me concerned.
     
  7. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    627
    Likes Received:
    858
  8. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    3,518
    Likes Received:
    1,248
    Location:
    vic
    Sorry CC: this is forecast related.

    I note the 4:20 updates haven't been updated in Vic. 'We' are usually later than NSW but this looks it might be related to the planned strike action I heard about during the week - at the BOM?
     
  9. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    3,190
    Likes Received:
    1,390
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    YR/No looks good for Buller, but not sure how accurate?
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    115,468
    Likes Received:
    53,094
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Updated now at 5pm
     
  11. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2003
    Messages:
    131
    Likes Received:
    74
    Location:
    Mona Vale, NSW
    nice blob on the radar about to hit
     
    skiingtk likes this.
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    115,468
    Likes Received:
    53,094
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,722
    Likes Received:
    10,343
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Clipitty
     
    nfip, Claude Cat and Charles like this.
  14. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2011
    Messages:
    974
    Likes Received:
    165
    Location:
    ACT
    Hi, any updates for da bo for next weekend?
     
  15. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,653
    [​IMG]
    That forecast would be a record high temperature for Victoria in July.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  16. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2010
    Messages:
    8,923
    Likes Received:
    4,772
    bejesus
     
  17. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,610
    Likes Received:
    3,846
    Location:
    Melbourne City, VIC
    Forecast is for 19c and windy in Melbourne for that date above. Hairdryer anyone?
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,194
    Likes Received:
    20,030
    Location:
    Casey Research Station 66°17’S 110°32’E
    T shirt weather Saturday.
    Will need the Yellow wax.
    Really blows in warm later into the night.
     
  19. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    7,822
    Likes Received:
    13,034
    Forecast of 16c in Jindy :eek: Time to the (water) skis out.
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
    This period looks pretty good IMO.

    Steady accumulations all week, wandering cold pools. Than bang bang.
     
  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,194
    Likes Received:
    20,030
    Location:
    Casey Research Station 66°17’S 110°32’E
    Maybe the kite board.
    Looking windy.
     
  26. skidazza

    skidazza Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2013
    Messages:
    115
    Likes Received:
    96
    Jane was spot on for Sunday (5-10cm) - and still liking the rest of this week (and acknowledging a bit of early r**n on some days).

    Here's hoping this eventuates too :)
     
  27. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    60,273
    Likes Received:
    30,995
    Location:
    East Coast
    Drive down Sat to ... check the weather :thumbs:
     
    CarveMan likes this.
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,722
    Likes Received:
    10,343
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Not seeing that sort of amount for tues/weds myself.
    Later in week looking OK on maps ATM.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,824
    Likes Received:
    1,433
    Location:
    South
    Reasonably cold uppers Wednesday[​IMG] .
     
    Tanuki likes this.
  31. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2001
    Messages:
    1,767
    Likes Received:
    2,113
    Location:
    A very long way from the snow
    That low south of the Bight on Friday is a brute. 944 hPa at the centre! Perth is expecting a shellacking as it comes through, and I think next weekend will be very interesting up on the big hills.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    115,468
    Likes Received:
    53,094
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO 15cm for Tues/Weds and the same again for Friday, so it hasn't changed that much since I looked a couple of days ago.
    Sunday is looking dangerous, though.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,722
    Likes Received:
    10,343
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    15 Tuesday? Really?
     
  34. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    60,273
    Likes Received:
    30,995
    Location:
    East Coast
    This is a thing
     
  35. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,756
    Likes Received:
    509
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    Why Sunday dangerous? Hoping for a big one.
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    72,607
    Likes Received:
    53,854
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Rain
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  37. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,756
    Likes Received:
    509
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    Thought that must be the worry, thanks mick. A tad too warm, again, perhaps? Hope not.
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,952
    Likes Received:
    11,155
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    IMO
    5-10cm for Tues/Weds system
    5-10cm for Thurs/Fri system
    A lot of rain and 5cm for Sat/Sun system.

    Looks bad.
     
    mick chopps and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    115,468
    Likes Received:
    53,094
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Tuesday/Wednesday. Perisher could be a bit more IMO.
     
  40. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
    check out the 'fetch' for Saturday.... a Broome (West Australia) special.
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,172
    Likes Received:
    4,116
    I thought all doom and gloom, then I saw these....

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    1st_King_of_QBN likes this.
  42. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
    all aces for me. I leave on Saturday :)
     
  43. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    3,453
    Likes Received:
    8,518
    Location:
    Canberra
    BOM offering up a massive downgrade for Wednesday (Perisher) from 15-20mm this morning to 3-6mm this afternoon. Ummm ....
     
    chicski likes this.
  44. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    7,822
    Likes Received:
    13,034
    Makes me selfishly happy ;)
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    115,468
    Likes Received:
    53,094
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Vic BOM (Hotham/Falls)

    Tuesday 25 July
    Summary

    Min -4
    Max 1
    Snow showers developing. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h increasing to 60 to 75 km/h in the late evening.

    Wednesday 26 July
    Summary

    Min -1
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 60 to 70 km/h tending west to northwesterly 35 t
     
  46. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2010
    Messages:
    8,688
    Likes Received:
    5,920
    How is Sunday looking? I was planning to take my son down for his first ski but really don't want to do it in the rain.
     
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    72,607
    Likes Received:
    53,854
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    GFS says maybe wet early turning to snow I think.
     
  48. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    31,070
    Likes Received:
    4,489
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    FAB
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    115,468
    Likes Received:
    53,094
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    out of this date range, but substantially wet below 1800m early, but snow level drops late morning. IMO
     
  50. Heelsideedge

    Heelsideedge Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Sydney
    I was also thinking of heading down Sunday, with the hope of some fresh on Monday (chuck a snowie)
    Jane has 15 to 25cm in her forecast
    Others seem to indicate rain followed by circa 5cm.
    Is this system worth another thread or am I clutching at straws?

    (ps very long time reader of these forums... Love the Knowledge floating around)