1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Predictions Weak systems 23rd -29th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 19, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Possibly worth a new thread. I'll have a look tonight.
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,804
    Likes Received:
    1,415
    Location:
    South
    Kind of all roles into one period.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    2,901
    Likes Received:
    7,048
    Location:
    Canberra
    I wish it was!
     
  4. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2001
    Messages:
    4,928
    Likes Received:
    1,112
    Location:
    melbourne
    I'm in Norway at the moment and noticed that the bureau of met website here is www.yr.no. Is that the site that is often referred to here? Is it because they do charts that no other Mets do?
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,251
    Likes Received:
    9,620
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yep. They produce EC data in an easy to access website, which isn't accessible to the general public.
     
  6. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    5,947
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    Bom have wound back moisture on 4.30pm update for falls/Hotham for Wednesday. Sunday looking potentially dire
     
  7. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    207
    Likes Received:
    252
    Location:
    Curly
    I don't think Sunday is all that bad really. Yes warm and #£%+.

    But seems we are predicted to get totals for Sunday - 10mm? With a cheeky 5cm snow?

    That's really not the end of the world. I was at thredbo for the two 100mm+ events last year (how unlucky can you get) and the snow holds up very well considering
     
  8. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 26, 2016
    Messages:
    367
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    TQY
    Yeah I mean on the positive side of the ledger since we're driving to Hotham from Mt Beauty on Sunday we won't need to fit chains on the ascent. Should I take a snorkel instead?

    Observationally speaking though am slightly disconcerted by the continuously rising temperature at Falls all afternoon with moisture inbound...
     
  9. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2010
    Messages:
    8,291
    Likes Received:
    5,243
    Jane is actually predicting snow for the Sunday:

    "The next high quickly moves through, and northerly winds strengthen from Saturday afternoon. The next front brings rain early Sunday, changing to snow on Sunday morning, and persisting through the day. Then the next front moves through on Monday with more snow - so we can expect 15 to 25 cm of snow on Sunday and Monday. "
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO I'm seeing bugger all snow on Sunday. The good news is that the amount of moisture that EC is showing has decreased.
    So I'd say 5cm above 1800m rain otherwise.
     
    The Plowking and CarveMan like this.
  11. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    2,901
    Likes Received:
    7,048
    Location:
    Canberra
    BOM predicting winds of up to 85kmh for Perisher on Saturday. I predict I will having a t-bar sort of day!
     
    Ted Harper likes this.
  12. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2010
    Messages:
    8,291
    Likes Received:
    5,243
    So likely to get moisture or has it downgraded
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,333
    Likes Received:
    9,790
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Looks a true WA peak SE slider.
    Ah well. Surf looks good.
     
    Deanski and Claude Cat like this.
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Almost gone now. Which is just as well as it was pretty warm on Sunday morning.
    Friday still looks ok for 5-10cm though IMO
     
    Deanski, IAB, nfip and 2 others like this.
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,333
    Likes Received:
    9,790
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Yep
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,387
    Likes Received:
    17,810
    Location:
    South Co.
    Yes , dried out considerably thankfully from yesterdays .
    STill warm below 2000m till Sun. morning
     
  17. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    5,947
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    GFS hanging in there. - indeed looks pretty good

    [​IMG]
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    69,616
    Likes Received:
    49,755
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    ~15-20mm wet, ~10cm frozen.
     
  19. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    5,947
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    And cmc

    [​IMG]

    But note run time
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,387
    Likes Received:
    17,810
    Location:
    South Co.
    gotta look at the heights earlier .
    still sketchy yes....
    [​IMG]
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    69,616
    Likes Received:
    49,755
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    >~1700m okay..
     
  22. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    5,947
    Likes Received:
    3,931
    I see GFS the other way around at 1500/1600
     
    mick chopps likes this.
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    69,616
    Likes Received:
    49,755
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    I'm conservative... Cause GFS....
     
    nfip and The Plowking like this.
  24. Budgiesmuggler

    Budgiesmuggler A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2010
    Messages:
    8,291
    Likes Received:
    5,243
    How's the wind at vic resorts this weekend?
     
    Rush likes this.
  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,387
    Likes Received:
    17,810
    Location:
    South Co.
    Yep.
    Bit higher for NSW.
    rule of thumb 1 deg / 100m
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,387
    Likes Received:
    17,810
    Location:
    South Co.
    AXS has been the most reliable last month or so.
    IMO.
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  27. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Hairdyrer alert for Saturday
    [​IMG]
     
    Majikthise and nfip like this.
  28. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,287
    Likes Received:
    13,636
    Wind hold a plenty I would think.
     
  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,662
    Likes Received:
    2,941
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Yuck - do not like

    At this time of year that's terrible, bit like that torrential rain event through July last season
     
    1st_King_of_QBN likes this.
  30. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    555
    yep and with the small base it will do some damage.
     
  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,953
    Likes Received:
    973
    Not pretty, but 00Z GFS has backed off on the peak 850HPa temps a little IMO. At least next week looks like a return to winter with reasonably chilly temps (i.e -3 850HPa temp on Tuesday).
     
    Lady Penelope, nfip and Claude Cat like this.
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,387
    Likes Received:
    17,810
    Location:
    South Co.
    Yeah temps seem half what they where forecast couple of days ago.
    Still not ideal but we can consider it an upgrade of sorts....
    [​IMG]

    Of interest the models do seem to be calc the adiabatic cooling / topography .

    [​IMG]

    They all within reason across the main 3 models. 2 or 4 degs @1480 m

    [​IMG]
     
  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,030
    Likes Received:
    15,755
    Location:
    Canberra
    Dont expect snow below 2000 for Saturday into Sunday IMO. Warm moist feed around 700hPa and dry brisk uppers knocking the tops off.
     
    nfip likes this.
  34. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    124
    Likes Received:
    61
    Location:
    ACT
    BOM Sunday
    Snowy Mountains area
    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Later tending to snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,030
    Likes Received:
    15,755
    Location:
    Canberra
    Entropy can be a mongrel sometimes.
     
    Wardy likes this.
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    EC suggesting < 5mm on Sunday.

    [​IMG]
     
  37. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2015
    Messages:
    125
    Likes Received:
    587
    Location:
    Falls Creek
    A mate of mine is planning a day trip to Hotham this Saturday, I said to him to give it a miss because of the winds. Are they still predicted to be gale force? What will Sunday be like?
     
  38. Makazaru

    Makazaru Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Messages:
    517
    Likes Received:
    13
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW, Aust.
    I predict that giving anyone advice based off amateur forecasts, on weather, snow depth, quality of beer at the pub or otherwise, is a great way to have it turn bluebird on your mate while he's sitting at home. This season has been rubbish for all but short range forecasts, and even they've been all over the joint. I'd point him here and let him make up his own mind, or descend further into confused madness.. as is more likely the case :)
     
    Deanski likes this.
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,030
    Likes Received:
    15,755
    Location:
    Canberra
    You could place a sizeable bet on it being windy.
     
    Tanuki likes this.
  40. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2017
    Messages:
    1,089
    Likes Received:
    1,702
    anyone here use the app 'storm' ?
     
  41. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    16,929
    Likes Received:
    11,172
    Location:
    Eastern Subs Syd
    This weekend. Saturday sun. Strong wind arrival in the morning in VIC resorts. Mid afternoon NSW resorts.

    Saturday night. Hold onto your hats folks.

    Sunday. Moisture arrival late Sat VIC. Early Sun NSW. Nothing crazy but on and off all day. Winds easing all day.

    All IMO.

    Not a great weekend IMO.
     
    Ted Harper and Mctavish like this.
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO it's going to be mostly dry.
    Biggest risk is in the south, for Buller. Perhaps 5mm rain.
    Bugger all further north as it stands.
    Saturday will be windy, but it's done by Sunday.
    Far from the worst weekend IMO.
     
    Mctavish likes this.
  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    16,929
    Likes Received:
    11,172
    Location:
    Eastern Subs Syd
    GFS suggesting NSW will have a reasonable Sat morning wind wise, IMO. VIC is a different story.

     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I suspect NSW will start copping it in the afternoon.
    Anyway, it could have been far worse.
     
    Mctavish and Astro66 like this.
  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    16,929
    Likes Received:
    11,172
    Location:
    Eastern Subs Syd
    Agree. But looking at GFS, I'm seeing more than 5mm for VIC Sunday. I'm thinking 10-15mm for VIC Sunday. 5-8mm for NSW. IMO.

    I'm headed to Perisher. So I'd love to be wrong.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO EC is showing 5-8mm for Buller down to <1mm for Perisher. Numbers anywhere in-between for locations between those two.
     
    Astro66 likes this.
  47. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2006
    Messages:
    989
    Likes Received:
    1,457
    Location:
    Sydney
    I predict it's about to start puking from about 11pm onwards. Big blob on radar and nice temps. Why are we all talking about the 48 hr range when the next few hrs looks minty?!
     
    Snow Blowey and loweee like this.
  48. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,714
    Likes Received:
    470
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    North Westerly wind?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,915
    Likes Received:
    49,226
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  50. Hunter

    Hunter Part of the Furniture Endless Winter Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2000
    Messages:
    13,462
    Likes Received:
    532
    Location:
    goughs bay
    Agree