Predictions Weak systems 23rd -29th July

Cos its the prediction thread ....

 

Well to me it seems like getting excited about NYE and we haven't even had Christmas yet. Anyway I predict I will now go to the obs thread

 

Whats the predictions for weekend? Deciding to go bogong or out the back of falls

 

windy as all get out IIRC

 

Access R bang on with last nights fall.

http://data.theweather.com.au/acces...ge=grads/access-r/wz.access-r.nsw.mslp.72.png

That looks wet.

 

and mostly damp.

not the sort of weekend I'd be considering a trip up Boges...

 

yep wind and bogong dont mix.
I was up there in summer years ago and a front came in and turned to snow and blizzard overnight..
One of the guys i was leading off the summit in that had his cheapo waterproof overpants literaly blown off him. Someone else that day got lost and a rescue party including some guy on a horse was up there , apparently the horse got blown over at one point ..
yikes.

 

Off topic, but this. Super dangerous.

Ski touring is a spring thing.

 

@Chondro
This man speaks truth. Not the weekend for it.

 

Yep no worries.
Thanks guys, Ill just head out to rocky knolls and around the back of falls

 

far safer option if you're desperate to go.

 

Saw Janes forecast for this weekend - Saturday arvo looks rough as guts with Strong to Gale force Northerlies predicted - yuck

Read: Windhold

 

Tell me to pull the trigger and hit da Bo for a sneaky Sunday with youngsters in tow?

 

If there's snow, it's touring time

 

Is this you @CarveMan ?

 

Is there a thread for Sunday onwards? Looks a system
Coming

 

It's a wacky one.
Another weakening front...to cut off this time.
Another 5-10cm I reckon. Teeny bit of rain before maybe.

 

Certainly not as clear cut as last night. Wouldn't be confident to call it until after the event.

 

Nope

 

Looks like I might have fun driving from Buller to Falls tomorrow arvo. I'm staying at Howmans Gaps and am a bit worried about parking my car under all those beautiful Alpine ash trees.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV20032.html

 

I would say "watch this space"... ECL for the south east on Monday. ECL's always mess with the models mojo.

Over the years, we have seen a good ECL leads into a solid conveyor event within 5 to 10 days later. It doesn't happen with every ECL but this season has been unpredictable over the mid to longer range and the ECL's have been few and far between.

So personally, I'm liking the idea of a good ECL to shake up the mix.

 

And quite often you get a little wedge of high pressure deflecting fronts qway if the ecl stalls in the tasman.
Heads or tails!

 

Are we still thinking rain n wind on Sunday for Vic?

 

EC likes Monday for 10-15cm for NSW Resorts. VIC a dusting at best.


And the EC setup... very juicy low developing, looks to intensify a fair bit in the Tasman. I am guessing the very warm anomalies in the Tasman might have something to do with it. But should give NSW a lot of rainfall and the resorts a nice topup.

 

Wind will quiet down early Sunday morning. Probably a bit of rain. I personally wouldn't want to go skiing on either day of this weekend.

 

Have skins, will ski. Rain, hail or shine

 

Thx for the pred

 

I'm agnostic on this one. These systems are notoriously touch and go

 

GFS has a monster system moving in next weekend (5/6 August). New thread?

 

http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/august-5-6th.78807/#post-3343421