New page I am working on: http://www.janebunn.net/your-forecast/ Currently has 24 hour rain totals from EC model for next 6 days (maps from weather.us), plus a table of observations (hourly for 72, then 6 hourly for remaining 10 days) of data for any location and elevation. This will feed snow forecasts in the coming season. Just a little part of where janesweather.com is heading, and very rough, but what I can bring to you now... For example:
Thank you Miss Jane. Just tried it out and supersop Saturday might just miss me . Only another 28.5mm forecast till midnight Sunday.
Levi @ Tropical Tidbits has been busy updating snowfall products on his website. Beyond the US, GFS is really the only real useful update for us.
Now he's adding those awesome EC Stratosphere plots, and the EC Weeklies... both are game changers now set to be in the public domain.
@stormhunter You (well I think it is you) were right. Maue made his plots paid only now. TBH I was wondering how he was going to pay his bills.
You could see it coming draw em in get em hooked on the plots then slug em with fees. You know enough to get by with any models there just purdy.
Another helpful tutorial on Atmospheric Soundings. https://www.weatherwatch.net.au/wea...wKp1am-YtPG4B5_cCxhYlydU7uwLBWZCj0pIf9JqgO4Jw
Here is a project that I have been apart of for the majority of last year: https://www.33andrain.com/forum/51-research-portal/ Basically we are documenting as many teleconnections, stratosphere, etc, etc research papers as possible, and creating an easy to access index, so people can easily find out what they want. Got over 500 weather related papers indexed so far, evolving constantly.
some interesting historical data here. includes satellite loop of the '98 Hobart event http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements...-gmM8U8kKcdzDAKQCcPzUYA8BDK6PZvMwDIUG-UgyaCKU
I can't recall seeing such an example of a high amplitude Long Wave Trough (LWT), and certainly not for May, so I think we can chuck this here for now. This is where you'll often see cold outbreak events and snow in strange places (in the height of winter). Often referred to as a negative AAO/SAM event, with strong meridonal (longitudinal) UL flow. Filtered LWT:
Proper. You'd be wiped off the map if you were playing twitcher on Heard Island. It does fade a bit under WA but I think it's got the legs to come back for us ~8-12th June yet.
I have often looked at models on tropical tidbits and known for a while that you click on the map to get a local model point location output of the “speculative” model results of an atmospheric sounding chart. Today I discovered by fluke that on tidbits you can drag a window on the model maps and get an area averaged atmospheric sounding. But I have no idea how to interpret an area average sounding. Has this been discussed before elsewhere or can anybody else advise on this?
I think the area function is limited to to a pressure change. It's been there for about 18 months IIRC. Handy in TD/TC & 'caines but otherwise pin-point soundings are sufficient for all else IMO.
If this is still the main go to thread for resources on viewing weather models I also suggest: https://meteologix.com/au Large choices of models, many output parameters of interest including EC precip, snow, and probabilities of severe weather, and can zoom in to specific regions of interest. But not easy to animate models. Also good for real time sat pics, including water vapour. Also https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php Not as good as above for range of outputs and being able to zoom in to a region, but has good choices for animation options and being able to save animations.
Another one I find of interest for unique map parameters in cyclones, hurricanes, and tropical depressions is HWRF model https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/
Haven't read the entirety of thread as yet so not sure if this been mentioned. While 1000mb-500mb is a good rough guide, years ago I picked up on a more specific 1000mb-700mb thickness(2840) as being the most critical signal(forecasting suggestion from Canada) - works everytime for me (in combination with moisture and ground temp). I think this provides a greater degree of certainty which is needed in my area because it is so very, very marginal sub-alpine. I use https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php
My only comment here is you're missing on alot of upper level temp influence captured by 1000-500mb. As far as snow forecasting goes, DGZ is a critical component that would be outside the scope of 1000-700mb. And whilst you can't measure DGZ from a thickness plot - it does help in understanding the depth of the cold air. i.e. you might see some good cold air in the 1000-700mb (low to mid-level atmosphere), but if snow systems are not supported at depth, you'll be unimpressed by what falls. Depth of cold air is crucial in AUS.
Didn't mean to suggest higher up was disregarded but I do rely on 1000-700 for final decision as warm layers lower down can spoil the party where I am at least because they are often so marginal.
Here's a link that can be used to look up old incidents: http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/00news2003headlines.shtml It gives a summary of every day's weather back to 2000. (There are currently a lot of gaps, but I assume they are back filling them) When there's no descriptions, you can scroll down and click on a day on the calendar. e.g. Brisbane floods, 11th Jan 2011: http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2011/110111.SHTML Melbourne 100 year storm, Dec 2nd/3rd 2003: http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/031203.SHTML
