1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Apr├Ęs topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

What's the deal with this heat?

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by sdsdc, Mar 8, 2016.

  1. sdsdc

    sdsdc Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 20, 2010
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    21
    I am in Melbourne, Victoria.

    I cannot handle this incessant heat anymore :tany:. From what I see, it isn't stopping anytime soon.

    I would love the weather experts here to explain why it is occurring, and when it will stop for another year.

    If I should not have posted this, I am sorry.

    Thanks for your help :cheers:
     
  2. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    30,656
    Likes Received:
    43,464
    I dont think its unusual to have some hot days in March, but this is quite a string of them, and I think unusual?
     
  3. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    How many in a row? And how hot?
     
  4. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    12,680
    Likes Received:
    8,282
    Location:
    Elwood
    Agree with you 100%, completely over it also.

    Keep an eye on the Autumn weather thread.
    At this stage mid next week looks like a change on some of the models, until then close your eyes and picture yourself on a beach in Bali, thats what it feels like atleast
     
  5. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    30,656
    Likes Received:
    43,464
    Canberra has been over 30 for two weeks, and looks like going another week. Has been cooling down at night to 15-18 though. Still running well over average.
     
  6. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    Perth has a forecast 36 for tomorrow.

    We don't typically expect a real change (or rain) until the Easter weekend (which is early this year)
     
  7. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2014
    Messages:
    550
    Likes Received:
    524
    Im not going to say the words that will get me banned from discussing them, but just notice that the weather patterns in general are straying quite away from normal the last few years. This year Alaska and the arctic in general have been having way above average temps, even so much so that it got above freezing at the north pole where it is usually at least 30 below midwinter. The winter has been very inconsistent in the US midwest/northeast even in spite of the few big blizzards they got. I noticed that between the proper winter weather, where my cousins live in Boston, they had spells of max temps at least 10 degrees and more above average i.e. in the teens celsius in January which is quite bizarre. In general the planet is experiencing weather far outside what was known as "normal" for the different seasons. Its absolutely not normal to be having weeks in a row above 30 degrees in Canberra in early autumn. Its not even normal for summer. 4 or 5 days sure then some mid 20s to break it up is what you'd usually expect. It worries me a lot if these extreme heatwaves are becoming the norm. i really hope things turn cold for autumn and winter so we can get some decent proper cold air becoming entrenched to have any kind of consistent ski season with dry snow. Before anyone says "its just an el nino year", I was reading an article by a few climate scientists this morning that said the variations we are seeing are far outside any effects from El Nino. .1-.2 degrees temp variation could be explained by that which is only a small amount of the massively high temps seen in many places. I mean, its 23 degrees C in NYC this week when winter is barely meant to be over there. That is so far from normal its not funny
     
    Telemark Phat, Tanuki and Ted Harper like this.
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    126,136
    Likes Received:
    77,733
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    It's been warm but not unreasonably.
    More that it's become humid of late.
    I think what's made it worse is that February was cool and now the heat has returned.
     
  9. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    in Perth a few weeks ago, we equaled a record set 80 years ago. for number of days in a row above 40C.

    Seems global warming/climate change has been a problem for a lot longer than we realised
     
    Snow Blowey likes this.
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,619
    Location:
    wollongong
    Weather is never "normal".
    Your perception of it ...changes.
    Mt Baker has had 500 inches of snow...

    The only thing to say, is the world is conclusively getting warmer as a whole.
     
    William, Snow Blowey, Tanuki and 3 others like this.
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    If you're looking for "signs" and "proofs", that is telling me the exact opposite.....

    It shows that in spite of 79 years of "warming", no intervening year has equaled a record set when the CO2 was 25% less than it is now, and the population was 70% less than it is now.
    i.e. That statistic is no indicator that the warming has been around a lot longer than we realised.
     
    #11 Sandy, Mar 8, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2016
  12. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    12,680
    Likes Received:
    8,282
    Location:
    Elwood
    This ^^^^^

    The East coast of the states got absolutely pummeled last year with record cold snaps and snowfall.
    Some people have short memories.

    Hawaii is having one of the best winter swell seasons in decades, they even ran the eddie for the first time in ages. The gold coast has had a crazy run of swell also. So its not all doom and gloom

    We had pretty decent snow last year in Aus standards, and the facts are showing a climatic change from El Nino to La Nina, ocean temps don't lie.

    Things will be back to normal pattern trend in a few weeks with cooler mornings, lovely Autumn arvos, trees dropping their leaves and we will have all forgotten about an Early March heatwave.
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,619
    Location:
    wollongong
    I just don't know what "normal" is.
    This run of warm weather over the SE is caused by a very stationary high over Aus
     
    MisterMxyzptlk likes this.
  14. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    18,123
    Likes Received:
    35,894
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    I'm no expert but I've lived in the upper Blue Mountains for 30 years.
    The weather here at the moment is abnormal!
     
  15. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,737
    Likes Received:
    1,849
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Summer in Victoria is being stretched to 5 months.
    From memory November was very warm ,Feb cooler than average and now March is making up for it with this squirt of hot.
    In 2 weeks time it will be cold and we'll have nice rains.
    That's weather
     
  16. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    yes that's one way of interpreting it.

    or you could choose to interpret it that 25% more population and more CO2 isn't materially causing these spikes, and the these are a cyclical, natural thing

    (devil's advocate ;) )
     
  17. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,663
    The atmospheric circulation you grew up with as a kid no longer exists.
     
    Telemark Phat and Majikthise like this.
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    "Melbourne hasn't seen eight straight days of 30 degrees since February 15 to 22, 1961. The other three such stints go back to 1890, 1898 and 1951, each of them spanning parts of January and February."

    So the last time this happened was when I was a kid.
     
  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Stay on topic.

    And please state opinion as opinion, not as fact, unless you can show supporting evidence.
     
  20. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    27,557
    Likes Received:
    12,964
    Sorry...thought it was convo
     
  21. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    You might have been forgiven for thinking it was CV!!!! ;) :D
     
    MisterMxyzptlk likes this.
  22. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    27,557
    Likes Received:
    12,964
    Does El Nino affect this or is it vice versa?
     
  23. Beerman

    Beerman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2015
    Messages:
    3,532
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Brisvegas
    Minimum temp where I have been the last week has been 29C, with averages of 42-44 during the day. Thursday last week was 47C measured at the nearest BOM recording site. Humidity has been around 50-60%.

    Brisbane is warm but not a patch on this.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    126,136
    Likes Received:
    77,733
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Where are you?
     
  25. Beerman

    Beerman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2015
    Messages:
    3,532
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Brisvegas
    Cape Preston, West Aus. Sounds exotic, but it's really an over heated void. Think of standing in front of your oven on a 33 degree day, with fan assist on.
    I also got to work in the sun for most of the week. Any unpainted metal surface is up around 80C, with gloves on you can only hold it for approx 10secs
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    126,136
    Likes Received:
    77,733
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Pilbara? I can imagine.
     
  27. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    and what are you doing up there?
     
  28. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    2,510
    Likes Received:
    6,363
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    On the western side , and only just on the western side - not far from NSW/VIC border ,of the Great Divide this summer heat has been going almost nonstop since mid October. Admittedly the last 4-6 weeks have been the hottest but its sort of expected at this time of year however normally we will get a few days respite every now and again. This hasn't happened this year, its got to the stage where if it doesn't hit 40c on a given day you remember it as the cool day.

    All shall change fairly soon , mid next week by current models , and I for one cant wait for it. I almost cant remember what its like to try to sleep without a/c.
     
  29. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    I've got a wardrobe full of winter gear I'm hanging out to wear dammit!
     
  30. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Stay on topic.
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,969
    Likes Received:
    4,548
    Location:
    Gerroa
    The question is whether this big el nino like previous ones over the past few decades will kick temps up a notch on an ongoing basis. There is substantial statistical data to show that has been occurring. This is a very large el nino event allbeit a central pacific one rather than an eastern pacific event as it was in '98.

    It partly explains why the impacts around the world have been quite patchy. SoCal has not been drenched and it took well into late summer here in Oz to get a hot dry period - especially in the SE. Yes October was hot and dry, but it pissed down for weeks from early Nov and was cold much of January.

    Whereas the Aust west coast has been spot on for an el nino year all summer. And the frosts last year across PNG etc did untold damage to highland crops with ongoing food shortages that will last years - and were clearly el nino related.

    Overall this has been a classic back to back el nino event as all "super" el nino events take back to back events to build into such.

    But no 2 el nino events are the same, and the climate is always changing. So any cyclical patterns are going to be filled with noise.

    SBS had an excellent doco recently on changing climates over the past few thousands years and their impacts on civilizations all over the world. Worth watching on SBS ondemand.

    Meanwhile, looking through the snowy hydro records there does appear to be some evidence that central pacific el nino years result in solid late seasons - whereas eastern pacific events almost always lead in to a dreadful season.

    Maybe we can entice Gerg to run the numbers of this and see what the data shows.
     
    MisterMxyzptlk and Majikthise like this.
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    18,078
    Likes Received:
    11,154
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    This.
    Simply, we have a huge dry country to our nw and a bloody cold ocean to our sw.
    Forever will our climate in the se be one of extreme variances, where occasionally it's winter-like in summer and summer-like in Autumn and all things in between.
    There's nothing super abnormal about current the current hot spell.
     
    Snow Blowey, William and rocketboy like this.
  33. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2014
    Messages:
    550
    Likes Received:
    524
    So at what point do you look at trends and decide there is a trend away from the past climate for whatever reason? i.e. look at the snow depth records in the mountains in Australia which is most definitely trending downwards.
     
  34. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    32,022
    Likes Received:
    18,289
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    @Gerg ;)
     
  35. Beerman

    Beerman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2015
    Messages:
    3,532
    Likes Received:
    4,196
    Location:
    Brisvegas
    I ask myself the same question sometimes...................

    It's called earning money to pay for ski hols. Thankfully i haven't been in this part of the world for 3 1/2 years, trying very hard to never be back again.
     
  36. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Stay on topic.
     
  37. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    Yeah stay on topic LOL
     
    JoeKing likes this.
  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,663
    Don't deny global satellite observations of the decadal changes in the planet's atmospheric circulation by quoting a single statistic from a single point on the planet.

    Have a read, read.
     
    Telemark Phat likes this.
  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,663
    On a national scale, this isn't true. A special climate statement will be released next week.
     
  40. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2008
    Messages:
    51,897
    Likes Received:
    22,921
    Location:
    Canning Vale, Perth
    Its already out

     
  41. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    68,751
    Likes Received:
    24,048
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    The TOPIC is based on one single point on the planet, and the run of over 30 degrees days.

    Your throw away line was not actually on topic, and not helpful for the discussion. My response was drawing the fact that similar runs of over 30s days have happened before, based on the topic.

    Whether the circulation has changed does not negate the fact that similar runs of temperatures have happened before, which seems to be what you are trying to imply.
    Please stay on topic.
     
  42. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2010
    Messages:
    1,359
    Likes Received:
    1,565
    This weather in Adelaide sure is a shock to the system after being in Niseko last week. 40 degree temperature difference does not make for a happy Kimski :(

    It even smells a bit like the tropics here at the moment!
     
  43. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    10,184
    Likes Received:
    4,360
    time to hit the creeks on hot days....[​IMG].and another photo to cool u down...Team Bears's surge pool!!
    [​IMG]
     
    #43 Ubiquitous Steve, Mar 9, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2016
    MickM likes this.
  44. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    2,510
    Likes Received:
    6,363
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    Rocketboy said -
    It partly explains why the impacts around the world have been quite patchy. SoCal has not been drenched and it took well into late summer here in Oz to get a hot dry period - especially in the SE. Yes October was hot and dry, but it pissed down for weeks from early Nov and was cold much of January.

    I must enquire as to where the outer limits of this SE are. Is it limited to the south-eastern Victorian coast and only extending 100 - 150 km inland ? If you take the Australian continent ( island if you want ) as a whole then my location is considered part of the south east Australia region.

    However the only part of your statement that holds true is " Yes October was hot and dry.. ". I have certainly missed all that " it pissed down for weeks from early November ( in fact my monthly rain total for the period October 12 to Feburary 12 was a measly 36mm) and again I missed that cold patch "was cold for much of January" ( come to think of it that might have been those 2 days in January that didn't reach 36c or above). Then again maybe this all supports your " It partly explains why the impacts around the world have been quite patchy". So patchy indeed that a few km can make all the difference or is it just a sweeping statement from you that may require more thought.

    Apart from your failure to adequately recognise a geographical area I thought your post was worthwhile. Good doco you mentioned as well , it was must see tv ( god I hate that expression and yet I still used it :) ) in our house.
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,969
    Likes Received:
    4,548
    Location:
    Gerroa
    The east side of the GDR is a completely different climate to the west side. It rained so much in Nov - Jan that people were whingeing as much then as they are now about the heat.

    The two heat wave events that did occur in Jan were fast and sharp and over by late afternoon on both occasions as the southerly struck.

    With family on the west side of the GDR I'm quite familiar just how much the weather sucks once you get inland a bit.

    Also much of Victoria is very different to coastal NSW - can be 40 in Melbourne and barely 22 along much of the NSW south coast.

    In late January during a trip down to Jindy I traveled through the upper Shoalhaven via Nerriga through to Tarago and Queenbyanne and it was green the entire way and likewise down the Monaro Hwy to Jindy. I'm sure it's cinder dry by now - but it was quite strange to see just how lush and perfect it all looked. I was actually reading your own descriptions of the complete opposite at the time and thinking how glad I don't live there. The weather east of the GDR really only turned continuously hot in early February. Sydney is different as it is just one big urban heat island filled with people, cars, air cons and concrete.

    With all this warm humid air circulating via el nino releasing heat into the atmosphere from the ocean - the potential moisture release must be a serious "bomb" just waiting to dump incredible amounts of rain once the temps start dropping and the atmosphere can no longer hold the extra moisture. April-May might be 180 degree turn around on what we have now. Then again it could roll into an indian summer and not rain until June/July - aka 2013.
     
  46. benchives

    benchives I forgot how to ski Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2006
    Messages:
    16,139
    Likes Received:
    6,636
    Location:
    sydney
    The more I read about weather the more confused I get
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  47. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,532
    Likes Received:
    1,679
    Location:
    South of Cooma
    I see this summer as a long one but not unusually hot (at least no where I am - Western Sydney). Two things stood out to me, a high number of hot days in October/November (I'm talking high 30s and even topping 40 a couple of times in Nov) and persistently above average temps and very warm summery weather from the second half of Feb till mid March. Net effect, this summer feels never ending because the fringes of the season have had the largest positive departures from average temperatures.
     
  48. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,663
     
  49. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,663
     
  50. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,663