White Christmas - Australian Alps??

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by bogong_flyer, Dec 18, 2006.

  1. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    In contrast to the lack of snow over most of winter and the blackening of the higher ranges in Victoria, a couple of models including EC, GFS and NOGAPS are suggesting a sub 540dm cold air pool traversing the Alpine regions on around the 24th/25th.

    This scenario could see a few brief snow-flurries in the resorts. Not all models support this scenario (GASP is a standout here) so I would say the prospect of this happening is around 20-30% - still worth keeping an eye on as the week develops.
     
  2. Fangin'Wolvy

    Fangin'Wolvy First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2004
    Messages:
    17,420
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    VIC
    wouldn't suprise me.
     
  3. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,442
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Sydney
    "This is Australia....."
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,777
    Likes Received:
    23,801
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    It's happened a handful of times in the past 5-6 years.
    I wonder if the models are suggesting it from it's recorded data?
     
  5. Shrek

    Shrek Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    29,388
    Likes Received:
    732
    Location:
    be in the mist
    ive been on kozi on new years day in a blizzard, entirely possible.
     
  6. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,672
    Likes Received:
    1,825
    Location:
    Planet Tele
    Certainly more likely in NZ.

    Expecting snow down to 600m in Queenstown on Wed/Thu this week.
     
  7. trout

    trout First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2004
    Messages:
    293
    Likes Received:
    0
    Mt Wellington sometimes has a dusting Christmas morning!
     
  8. Mr Nicholas

    Mr Nicholas First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2005
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It would be interesting to see it snow on the bushfires.
     
  9. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,223
    Likes Received:
    9,236
    Location:
    melbourne
    happened in 2003 alpine fires
     
  10. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,223
    Likes Received:
    9,236
    Location:
    melbourne
    and like shrek, new years day 2001 (i think) we had snow up around kosi townsend
     
  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,864
    Likes Received:
    15,552
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    This mornings charts looking OK still. Will be keen to see the latest update.
     
  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,864
    Likes Received:
    15,552
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Latest GFS looking better than this mornings run.
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,758
    Likes Received:
    10,402
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Bit of a downgrade this morning.
     
  14. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,687
    Likes Received:
    4,052
    Location:
    Monaro
    What about if a cut-off low forms like mrf has this morning. Good for NSW surf, not so for Sydney-Hobart competitors...
     
  15. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    Latest EC run actually has snow down to around 1,000m over southern Victoria on Christmas morning!!
    But it also promised big time a couple of times during the winter which never eventuated - would say that areas above 1500m are still in with a chance of a few flakes Sunday/Monday.

    GFS still suggest below freezing 850 temps late on Christmas Day.

    GASP is too warm.


    NOGAPS is still going with a sub-540 cold pool cut-off over northern Vic - but suggest the 850 temps will be way too high for snow. The upper temps would be cold enough for thunderstorms with hail though.

    All in all - still put snow at about 30% probability at this stage.
     
  16. Squirrel Murphy

    Squirrel Murphy First Runs

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2006
    Messages:
    160
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Buller
    f*** snow/cold temps

    how much rain is in this one?
     
  17. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,223
    Likes Received:
    9,236
    Location:
    melbourne
    look at the other thread SM, this one is about snow
     
  18. rossi

    rossi First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2006
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    CANE TOAD COUNTRY
    Latest GFS run still progging some light but white and fluffy precipitation on Xmas day. 5400 looking good.

    Maybe a dusting for the higher NSW resorts.


    I laugh and think...this is Australia.
     
  19. Arthur Dent

    Arthur Dent First Runs

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2006
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Cooma
    Im going to big family Christmas do in Jindy on Christmas Day. I dont know much about the weather forecasting game but from what I can see you are all predicting snow higher up?

    Wow the chance of a snowball fight on Christmas Day - in Australia!
     
  20. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,864
    Likes Received:
    15,552
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    And to think some folks go overseas for a white xmas.

    BOM forecast now mentioning snow for Sunday/Monday.
     
    #20 Snow Blowey, Dec 20, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  21. Arthur Dent

    Arthur Dent First Runs

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2006
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Cooma
    Beanies instead of boardies maybe. Fantastic, I'll keep my eyes on this thread.

    The kids will be over the moon if this comes off.

    They have friends in London and we'll be able to give them hell over the snow and the cricket.
     
  22. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    31,140
    Likes Received:
    4,565
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    precip multiples for the snowies are showing 3 on friday .. at last some reasonable precip at least ..
    showers are now showing for melbourne most days between tommorow and jan 3.
     
  23. madskierNZ

    madskierNZ First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2003
    Messages:
    318
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    wellington NZ
    Snowed at Ruapehu Last night, elevation around 1600m

    Lovely southerly flow is likely to cover the whole country for the next few days

    [​IMG]
     
    #23 madskierNZ, Dec 21, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  24. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,672
    Likes Received:
    1,825
    Location:
    Planet Tele
    Mt Hutt looks pretty good too.

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 Telestrom, Dec 21, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. SnoWhite

    SnoWhite One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2002
    Messages:
    4,646
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Jindabyne
    Was planning on bar-b-qing for Christmas day in Jindy. Looks like I might change the menu to a traditional roast and make sure I've got some kindling chopped and logs split for the fire. If I have to light the fire it also means moving the tree. [​IMG]

    I'll be keeping a close eye on your predictions. :cheers:
     
    #25 SnoWhite, Dec 21, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    The last few GFS runs have all been pretty consistently pointing to a white Christmas in the Vic/NSW Alps (5-10cm). This is very encouraging!

    Falls starting in the wee hours of Christmas day, and continuing through the day. Could be some falls around lower levels (to around 1000m), but unlikely there will be any real settling other than in the alps at this stage.

    Tassie is another story again, without having looked at the model data for tassie it sounds like (from the BoM) they may be in for white christmas across a number of areas.

    So who's going up to the Alps on Christmas day to ski/slide down in a Santa suit on their rockhoppers? [​IMG]

    :party: (We need a Xmas emoticon, as in "all our christmas' have come at once"!)
     
    #26 Djon, Dec 21, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,223
    Likes Received:
    9,236
    Location:
    melbourne
    Yes the weatherchaser GFS run for 6am christmas morning looks good for a fall. Is it ok to post pics from there or not?
     
  28. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Yeah, here's fine. Glad to know someone is looking at it! [​IMG]
     
    #28 Djon, Dec 21, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,777
    Likes Received:
    23,801
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Doubt you'd be able to get up to Buller for sight seeing... They'd be mopping up I'd think...
     
  30. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    This morning's GFS run doesn't look so good. Not as cold or as moist. Now suggesting some lighter snowfalls around higher ground, later Christmas day, and perhaps late/overnight the next.

    So after the GFS runs being fairly consistent from one to the next they have changed a bit now. Perhaps they will change back again....
     
  31. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,223
    Likes Received:
    9,236
    Location:
    melbourne
    Cool Djon. Its your site, yes?
     
  32. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,442
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Sydney
    As much as i would like a white Christmas (even though i wouldnt be there) if it aint going to snow hard and heavy its just not worth it. I want Christmas to be warmer, not cold, say 30 deg.
     
  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,064
    Likes Received:
    387
    16 and Rain tending to showers for Xmas day now
     
  34. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Looks better on this afternoon's GFS run, not as cold as previous days, but perhaps enough in it for a white christmas for those about the bigger hills. Starting early Christmas morning, and lasting through the day.

    Yeah, and one that needs some more TLC. Only recent work has been to add a live weather satellite to the background, (<a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/maps/index.html?lat=-36.49197347059368&lon=145.17333984375&zoom=6&bg_layer=ir1&fg_layers=ausradar'>for example</a>) to the live obs map.
     
    #34 Djon, Dec 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  35. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,223
    Likes Received:
    9,236
    Location:
    melbourne
    Love yer work Djon. I'll be in Northern Tassie - it will be nice to see a dusting on the Tiers and the Ben on christmas day
     
  36. Gupster

    Gupster First Runs

    Joined:
    May 13, 2002
    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Armidale
    Interesting post - I have the BOM site as my homepage - and just a glance at the satellite image and you can see the snow sitting there. Question is only how high up it will slide.

    Actually our white Christmas came a little early, drove over to east Armidale yesterday and the hail was still piled a foot deep in the shaded areas. Trees completely stripped. We only got some leaf stripping at our place - no building collapses like over there!
     
  37. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Still looks good for some snow in them thar hills. [​IMG]

    Cold change just came through here (Wimmera), and now 14 degrees (~150m ASL). If this were a system during the snow season it could come up with 10cm, but any settling at this time of year won't last too long due to the warmer ground.

    Freeze levels down to around 1300m over tommorow should see at least snow flurries across a fair area. I am still looking forward to a possible photo of someone in a santa suit on their rock hopping skis/board from tommorow...

    (Merry Christmas everyone!!!)
     
    #37 Djon, Dec 24, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  38. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,442
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Sydney
    I am acually quite suprised with this system, i thought it would be a flop, but there is a bit of moisture, could see 5-15 all up.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    72,250
    Likes Received:
    26,951
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    wow. better than i expected too. baw baw up to 13mm of rain now, and anything that falls now will be white and fluffy.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,777
    Likes Received:
    23,801
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Buller has just dropped nearly 2C in that last half hour, with some moderate precip Alpine-bound (about an hour away) which could spell an early White Xmas. :woohoo:
     
  41. the precious has landed

    the precious has landed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2005
    Messages:
    77
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    tumut
    check out baw baw 19mm of rain @ <0

    :woohoo: :woohoo:
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,777
    Likes Received:
    23,801
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Looks to be some accumulation on the Buller's rooftops and on benches etc.
    Ground appears to be very warm, and non-supportive.
     
  43. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    3,540
    Likes Received:
    1,272
    Location:
    vic
    Just imagine the lure for local families of visiting a white mountain (BBaw) for Christmas Day - of course without a working snow cam who would know about it? [​IMG]

    I think the resort staff should consider paying for summer maintenance of their cams if they really want to encourage summer visitaton.

    Remembering the scenes of the powder skiing ~15 Nov this year - you can't buy such good publicity. [​IMG]

    At least we know that one of our regulars will post a shot (cheers guys).

    Happy Christmas all - I hope you get a few turns in for me!
     
    #43 snowgum, Dec 25, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,864
    Likes Received:
    15,552
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    lake mountain looking good for this time of year. Freezing level down to 1000m at lookout hill.
     
  45. snow_obsessed

    snow_obsessed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2005
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, northeast suburbs
    Would it be worth it driving up Donna Buang? Would the snow settle there? hailing here in Lilydale... thunder as well. What a Great Christmas day!
     
  46. mr [on holidays]

    mr [on holidays] First Runs

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2006
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    on holidays
    Snow here in Tas visible from the farm up on Ben Lomond and Stacks Bluff. Only a smattering, didnt rain too hard last night.

    Must be 30cms at Baw Baw based on the observations
     
  47. mr [on holidays]

    mr [on holidays] First Runs

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2006
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    on holidays
    more even...and still coming down there based on the radar images and the obs. Another day of good summer skiing for the little mountain!
     
  48. mr [on holidays]

    mr [on holidays] First Runs

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2006
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    on holidays
    Been 35mm in coldstream since last night so i'd say Donna Buang would be as good as lake mountain, possibly better.
     
  49. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,767
    Likes Received:
    520
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    Great shot of white stuff on Donna in today's Age.
     
  50. Kahanamoku

    Kahanamoku One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2003
    Messages:
    1,959
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Traralgon
    I'll be posting my Pics of Baw Baw (from this morning) in snowtalk shortly