1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW WEATHERZONE FOLK

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

why does the bom keep getting it wrong?

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by loklok, Jun 23, 2007.

  1. loklok

    loklok One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2005
    Messages:
    3,287
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Perth, far from the snow
    For so many day this year, the Victoria BOM has been out by 3~4 degrees for it's forecasts for Mt Hotham/Mt Buller.

    Consistently they forecast colder mins and colder maxs than actually eventuate. What gives? How can it be so hard to forecast an overnight minimum - from 3:50 in the afternoon?!
     
  2. loklok

    loklok One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2005
    Messages:
    3,287
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Perth, far from the snow
    Tonight's forecaste for Mt Hotham is for -4, but at 11pm local time it's only +1.6!
     
  3. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,135
    Likes Received:
    10,046
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Look, being in Japan, I haven't looked at the BOM synoptic chart for a week or so....

    However, if the BOM is finding it hard to get the overnight temperatures right, I'll bet there's a BIG ridge of high pressure right over SE Australia, probably not far from 1030hPa. These are prime conditions for temperature inversions, which would explain why it's so hard to pick overnight temperatures.
     
  4. HiLo

    HiLo Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2001
    Messages:
    58,706
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Yarra Valley
    That sounds scientific. [​IMG] How many days?
     
    #4 HiLo, Jun 24, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  5. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    2
    A prime example of that happened in Thredbo a couple of nights ago. At 10.30 pm it was almost -10 at the top but by morning it was -2 at the top and -7 in the village.
     
  6. loklok

    loklok One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2005
    Messages:
    3,287
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Perth, far from the snow
    In May this year I counted 6 days where the 12hour forecast was out by 3 degrees or more. Now in June, there have been 3 more.

    It's not terribly scientific, since I didn't keep all the data. Call it anecdotal then - but it's still frustrating.

    And if temperature inversions are the cause - surely they are forecastable too - for a specific site such as Mt Hotham.
     
  7. Stretch

    Stretch First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2007
    Messages:
    3
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Pehaps a crystal ball would help! Forcasting isn't an exact science therefore inconsistancy is going to creep in.
     
  8. Andrew N

    Andrew N First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 1999
    Messages:
    122
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide, South Australia
    it is currently 5.2 degrees in Falls Creek and they forecast a maximum of 2 degrees!
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,135
    Likes Received:
    10,046
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Temperature inversions are dependent are number of factors, including local conditions, humidity, wind, topology, etc, so it is difficult to forecast exact conditions in particular locations, without putting a disproportionate amount of time and effort into it.
     
    #9 Sandy, Jun 24, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013