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NSW/ACT Widespread Rain - August 7-10, 2020

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Steve777, Aug 6, 2020.

  1. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    A low has formed over Central Australia bringing, welcome rainfall to SA and the Southern NT. The low is expected to intensify and move South-Eastwards, bringing widespread rainfall, with 25 mm+ expected over most of NSW. The low will escape into the Tasman on Sunday, possibly to become an ECL.

    Here’s the forecast synoptic chart for 10:00 tomorrow. Not often that you see a mid-latitude style depression complete with a cold and warm front over the Australian mainland.



    Heavist falls are again expected on the NSW South Coast. The BOM are forecasting 80-180 mm for Batemans Bay over the following seven days. Rainfall decreases Northwards, with Sydney now expecting about 30-65 mm, less than was anticipated a couple of days ago. Inland, Forbes is expecting about 15-30 mm.

    Here’s the forecast rainfall for the 8 days August 6-13 according to the BOM this morning:

     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's uncommon to see a occluded front over that latitude
     
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  3. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Thanks for starting this Steve.

    Yes, it may not be a big deal here in Sydney Town, but further south looks to get hammered again.
    The alps look to do particularly well for snow, albeit it might be a bit wet and not the dry snow they prefer. Looks like it could be a metre plus of the wet white stuff.
    It will be interesting to see what happens at Brown Mountain/Nimmitabel and the Snowy Mountains Hwy around that region. 200-300 mm's forecast for there according to your map!!!

    Also, between Cooma and Jindabyne could be a mess on the roads as well. Temps look a degree or two colder than the last similar event two weeks ago.

    As for the coast, Bega is looking at a max rainfall of 300+. (174 - 310!!)

    I love the forecast rainfall chart you posted. All of NSW receiving precip during that period, with a large chunk in the 15-50 mm range.
    This will be a fascinating system to watch.

    BOM 4 Dayer below.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    Its just started raining in the Sydney CBD now. Still just light and intermittent showers, but the ground is starting to look wet below.
     
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  5. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    There have been widespread falls in the range 10-20 mm over the Western half of the State, with a number of falls over 25 mm, for example around Bourke - much welcome I'm sure. Areas further East received falls around 2-8 mm.

    After no rain overnight, Sydney OH had a millimetre between 9:00 and 9:10 from a small cell moving in from the East. The main rainband is moving down from the North-North West and might be here by late morning.
     
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  6. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any predicted totals for Sydney over the weekend? Am just wondering whether kids sports will be cancelled.
     
  7. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    I'm wondering that myself.
    All I'm going by at the moment is BOM's predicted totals.
    It'll depend I suppose how much rain we get today/overnight.
     
  8. Val Desire

    Val Desire Addicted

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    Is snow predicted for Blue Mrs this system?
     
  9. Val Desire

    Val Desire Addicted

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    That's 'snow - Blue Mountains??'LOL
     
  10. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    No. The cold air stays West and South, so plenty of snow for the Snowies, even some in the Flinders Ranges but the air mass over the Central Tablelands is too warm. The current temperature at Mt Boyce is about 6°.

    ====
    There’s been persistent light rain since mid morning. Sydney OH has had 5 mm since 9:00 which seems to be typical for the Metro area. Chatswood has had 9 mm.
     
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  11. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its pouring rain and 10c here in Glenbrook, 7mm so far and a completely filled in radar. Brilliant!
     
  12. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Bureau recently upgraded their 7 day streamflow forecasting service to produce probabilistic hourly streamflow forecasts for some catchments.
    Note the forecast rainfall will differ from what you see for a forecast location, because they provide estimates of rainfall over a catchment area rather than rainfall at a point. It also applies complex bias correction methods.
    I have been watching the service through the last ECL a couple of weeks ago - have mixed views about whether the bias correction may be too much diminishing of the median amount expected on catchments. Example below.
    Note it is a streamflow forecast - not necessarily suited to a purpose for a flood forecast (very fuzzy boundary though as I am sure they may get misinterpreted)


     
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  13. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    Getting being classed as heavy rain by the PWS (rare for post June) at 11.7mms. Ditto to Steve great falls out west quite rare for these numbers being put up in August.
     
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  14. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Addicted

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    The rain started here around noon, and we are up to 11mm so far. Certainly cold for here as well at 10c.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Storms lighting off up in the top half of the state
     
  16. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    There’s a distinct clearing edge to the rain band approaching Sydney from the NW. Also a distinct clearing edge to the thicker part of the cloud band, extending from about Newcastle SW into the Riverina, although there’s low cloud underneath.

    The visible satellite picture indicates that the low is located about half way between Cobar and Invanho.
     
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  17. connells

    connells Addicted

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    Some big fat cells over northern NSW shown in the sat pics.

    Bega forecast for rain is 200 - 350 mm over next two days. They need that much?
     
  18. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Nowhere needs that much in two days. Ever.

    Nice steady rain here today once it started. As Steve said, there's now a clearing edge which is almost upon me here.
    Very eerie looking earlier. It's been very foggy here since about 3 pm, and as this clearing edge approached, there must have been some clearing in the higher cloud, although I couldn't see it due to the lower cloud and fog. What it did do is cast an orange glow through the cloud and fog.
    It looked very much like those very smoky bushfire days this past summer. Only difference was it was raining and 10 deg's. It was quite surreal.
     
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  19. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    Was really heavy around 4:15 visibility dropped to about 400metres as well, not keen for the potholes after this.
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've got a feeling we may seen some storms in the basin Saturday arvo
     
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  21. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    I agree, maybe even earlier.

    Anyway, just when I thought the clearing edge was near, there has been some strange back building of showers on the radar and it is still raining.
    Looks like the rain might last for a while yet.
     
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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's stopped in Wollongong... Radar still keen though.
     
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  23. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Radar certainly still looks keen there.
     
  24. Ben K

    Ben K Hard Yards

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    10.8mm at Gosford so far.....
     
  25. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    It’s a foggy start this morning. Webcams show near-whiteout conditions on the Harbour. The rain’s stopped, in fact in hasn’t rained at OH since 10:00 PM. Most of Sydney has received between 12 and 20 mm since 9:00, with falls over 25 mm in the East and South. The focus of the rain has been the Illawarra, with 131 mm at Nowra.

    There are lightning-active cells way out to sea off Sydney and smaller cells on the Illawarra coast. I think it’s blue sky here above the fog, however.
     
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  26. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Into the 150s now at Nowra. It came fast too with another 22mm in the last 30 mins
     
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  27. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wollongong being effected by some onshore cells.
    Heavy showers in some areas with localised flooding.
     
  28. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Yesterday‘s maximum of 13.6° at Sydney OH was its coldest in over four years. Most Sydney sites maxed around 13-14°, with some sites in Sydney’s West ‘losing’ low maxima through the 9:00 reset, e.g. Richmond’s 10.8 (from memory) became 12.3°.

    The sun’s out now. Turns out there was broken mid-level cloud above the fog. Those cells are still hovering over the Illawarra coast and there’s a substantial-looking rain band about to enter the Hunter region from the North. Things might get interesting later.
     
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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thankfully the wind has picked up here now. Some of those cells were just bucketing down on the Illawarra.
     
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  30. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wollongong and South of..
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Issued at 10:37 for Wollongong and Bowral to the Victorian border:

    Severe Weather Warning
    for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

    For people in South Coast and parts of Illawarra, Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.

    HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING and RIVERINE FLOODING, is forecast for the South Coast and Illawarra districts, and eastern parts of the Snowy Mountains and Southern Tablelands districts today and Sunday.
     
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  32. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    Nowra at Shoalhaven river 204mms at the 9am reset, yikes not looking to friendly. Very humid and warm for a winter morning here.
     
    #32 AshestoAshes, Aug 8, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some rain trains developing east of Kiama
     
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  34. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    Broughton Creek near Berry has cracked a 100mms for the day, and is up 243mms for the total event. How about those South Coast rain deficiencies now :D.
     
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  35. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Had some nice sunshine here this afternoon after the lunchtime showers cleared away. The remainder of the cloud clear by about 3 pm so there was about an hour or so of sunshine.
    I have however noticed quite a build up of cloud (with some decent looking cu's) in the last half an hour or so to my north and west. I notice the BOM still have the chance of a storm in the forecast.
    We'll see what happens.
    Rain off the coast is heading south while the current rain inland is heading north. Centre of the low, or a low, looks to be around Appin at present.

    It became unexpectedly cold today, after what felt like quite a warm morning.
     
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  36. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    And, there you have it.
    Cells building in the metro currently.
     
  37. Perfect Storm

    Perfect Storm Hard Yards

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    Wouldn't mind if some had a bit of boomage! Did notice some CU activity before sunset so maybe might be lucky.

    Though, rain is good too!
     
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  38. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Yep. Rain is good. Heavy rain is better. Some added booms are the antz pantz.
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Real weird.
    Watching it pop up on the radar
     
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  40. Sideny

    Sideny Addicted

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    Wow, look how quick it intensified in the last frame!
     
  41. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Couple of rumbles of thunder here so far. Distant yet audible. Actually, a few more while I've been typing.
    Just about to get the heavy rain.
    Cold enough for some pea sized hail possibly.
     
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  42. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Addicted

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    Rolling thunder to my north, probably around the Greystanes area.
     
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rotation here.
     
  44. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Absolutely torrential rain here now.
    No hail yet though.
     
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  45. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't know how much rain has fallen on the Jindabyne North Shore but currently we have a moat.
     
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  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Direct hit

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    White moat monsters?
     
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  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vicious
     
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  49. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Radar showing some really strange shit for the Metro and Illawarra atm.
    Some quite random stuff showing up at will.
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This.
    I'll honestly say. I've not seen before.

    I say I've seen similar (Ish) during the February 2013 tornado that hit kiama
     
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