Will rain ruin all our snow??

[snowjunkie91]

Hi guys. This is my first post so I'm not really too sure how all this works.
I'm going to falls creek from the 6th to the 12th this year and I'm starting to get a little nervous. I was so excited to find that many runs are open but the recent forecasted "rain" on the mountain during that period is really dampening my spirits. I'm just wondering if anyone knows about how likely this is to happen and if it does rain, how much will it affect the 39 cms of snow already at falls creek. I'd love to know anything if you'd like to help me out.

Thanks

 

[skiflat]

snowjunkie91: Hi there!

Firstly welcome

You have posted this in the best forum, and thanks for not posting it in Weather (that's for the more technical stuff)

At the moment the forecast for next week is all over the place

Yesterday the forecast was for 50cms of snow
This morning the forecast was for lots of rain and 10cms of snow up on the peaks only
Tonight the forecast is for a mix of rain/snow
Tomorrow will no doubt be different again

This will definately be a wait and see event, your not going know this one any earlier, it't too hard to predict

Either way you'll have a great time though

Also even if it was a few days of rain, there will still be quite a bit of snow around, it really can't all be washed away that fast

 

[dawooduck]

If its gonna rain then Falls Creek will get wet.

 

[snowjunkie91]

Oh really?? thnks for that. I'm feeling a lot better about my trip now. i read somewhere that any snow predictions outside of 2-3 days is like winning the lottery. and they havent been completely accurate so far. so you think that there will still be enough snow to ski/snowboard on if it does rain or sleet?

 

[IAB]

Dr Wood Duck doesn't like Falls Creek.

I am going for the first time on July 20th with my two kids so will reserve judgement until then

Regarding the coming system, we should know with a little more certainty after tomorrow's afternoon run.

 

[Wanabsnoprophet]

Can somebody please tell me the damage/effect of sleet? there is a chance of some falling during my stay. Also how much rain would be needed to do any serious damage?

Thanks

 

[skiflat]

Oh really?? thnks for that. I'm feeling a lot better about my trip now. i read somewhere that any snow predictions outside of 2-3 days is like winning the lottery. and they havent been completely accurate so far. so you think that there will still be enough snow to ski/snowboard on if it does rain or sleet?

Predicting snow in Australia is like a lottery even 1 day ahead, this system coming from Sunday-Thursday is a VERY hard one.

Just keep all your fingers crossed and hope that it will snow and not rain!

Even if there was a fair bit of rain, there would still be quite alot of snow around to ski on.

The snowmakers will be going full on over the next few days/nights as the temps are nice and cold

 

[snowjunkie91]

Yeah it though Dr Wood Duck might have a slight dislike to the place. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I am goin with my school and today was the day that we had to call whether we go or not. up until now it has looked all go but this lack of snow supposed falling of rain may leave us a little disappointed. Were all hoping for the best.

 

[Squidly]

There were marginal systems last year that were forecast to rain but managed to produce snow instead. BOM forecasts are often conservative. I think there will be some rain and then some snow, it might end up being a neutral outcome.

 

[Wanabsnoprophet]

Ahh but a few days next week it gets to 5*C.. like does that melt the snow.. and it isnt just once its a positive temprature.

 

[skiflat]

Yeah it though Dr Wood Duck might have a slight dislike to the place. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I am goin with my school and today was the day that we had to call whether we go or not. up until now it has looked all go but this lack of snow supposed falling of rain may leave us a little disappointed. Were all hoping for the best.

Don't worry about what the Duck man says, 99.9% of what he says is rambling rubbish. There was a few good posts from him the other day when he acutally tried and I was impressed though

 

[skiflat]

Can somebody please tell me the damage/effect of sleet? there is a chance of some falling during my stay. Also how much rain would be needed to do any serious damage?

Thanks

Rain/Sleet = Ice to ski on basically.

Close to impossible to say how much rain would be needed to do serious damage. Depends on the amount of man made snow versus natural snow (man made snow doesnt wash away as fast)

Depends how hard the base is
Depends how warm the rain is
etc etc

But there would need to be ALOT of rain to wash away everything, it would be un-heard of I would think ?

 

[snowjunkie91]

There were marginal systems last year that were forecast to rain but managed to produce snow instead. BOM forecasts are often conservative. I think there will be some rain and then some snow, it might end up being a neutral outcome.

By conservative do mean mean they often predict the worse conditions to cover themselves?

 

[MisterMxyzptlk]

If its gonna rain then Falls Creek will get wet.

Don't worry about rain at Falls Creek.
Its terrain is so steep the rain tends to run off very very quickly and usually flows downhill to resorts like Thredbo and Perisher Blue.

 

[snowjunkie91]

If its gonna rain then Falls Creek will get wet.

Don't worry about rain at Falls Creek.
Its terrain is so steep the rain tends to run off very very quickly and usually flows downhill to resorts like Thredbo and Perisher Blue.

But will this flowing of rain carry away our precious snow?

 

[skiflat]

If its gonna rain then Falls Creek will get wet.

Don't worry about rain at Falls Creek.
Its terrain is so steep the rain tends to run off very very quickly and usually flows downhill to resorts like Thredbo and Perisher Blue.

But will this flowing of rain carry away our precious snow?

Ingore that post as well

 

[Squidly]

By conservative, I mean they don't necessarily predict extremes. In my state snow is only forecast when they're 99% sure and for the punter its a no-brainer.

 

[dawooduck]

You got no choice so just go. Don't get all despondent before you go. School trips are always fun.

When rain threatens go higher but there is no higher at Falls Creek. Its a simple equation. The same rain equation applies to Thredbo (bottom half) and Buller.

Ask around about the legendary Falls Creek Interschools monsoon.

 

[Wanabsnoprophet]

Sorry about all of the bombing questions.. Im also going to falls creek at this time and there is 38cm(ish) depth of snow. Is this good bad amount and what to expect this time of year? Will that amount be good to snowboard/ski with?

thanks

 

[snowjunkie91]

Ok. so basically, theres no way of knowing yet whether there will be snow or not but if there is, it wont completely ruin our trip?

 

[dawooduck]

Don't worry about what the Duck man says, 99.9% of what he says is rambling rubbish. There was a few good posts from him the other day when he acutally tried and I was impressed though

Take heed grasshopper, decipher the riddles us old timers spin.

 

[dawooduck]

Ok. so basically, theres no way of knowing yet whether there will be snow or not but if there is, it wont completely ruin our trip?

Almost true.

Ask around about the great PB flood of 1986.

Anything is possible but you have July in your favor. Smile, its the most important thing an Oz skier can do.

Falls Creek is flat so the rain ponds and then it freezes and they groom it and call it "fresh".

 

[skiflat]

Sorry about all of the bombing questions.. Im also going to falls creek at this time and there is 38cm(ish) depth of snow. Is this good bad amount and what to expect this time of year? Will that amount be good to snowboard/ski with?

thanks

This place is all about questions so ask away

38cms is not much, 100cms would be better and would ensure 100% of the mountain to be open.

This amount is LOW for this time of year, but should increase towards the end of July and August being peak season should see a much higher amount.

I dont' know anything about Falls Creek really, but looks like enough terrain is open to keep you busy

You'll just have to wait and see what next week brings and it will either be

a) Rain and a few runs closed
b) Rain and then snow - No change
c) Dumpage - Lots of new runs open

 

[skiflat]

Don't worry about what the Duck man says, 99.9% of what he says is rambling rubbish. There was a few good posts from him the other day when he acutally tried and I was impressed though

Take heed grasshopper, decipher the riddles us old timers spin.

 

[snowjunkie91]

You got no choice so just go. Don't get all despondent before you go. School trips are always fun.

Im not getting despondant, im simply asking people with greater snow related knowledge than me what their opinions and predictions are. and in know school trip are fun but $1050 would have be dissapointedly spent if the snow at falls creek melts away.

 

[Wanabsnoprophet]

Please snowgods. dump away, all over fc. take the biggest dump of your immortal lives. plz.

 

[dawooduck]

Please snowgods. dump away, all over fc. take the biggest dump of your immortal lives. plz.

Thats all ya can do.

snowjunkies if it rains lots then the girls on the trip will get very frisky ... and wet ... and cold ... and will need warming up.

 

[main street]

...................
Ask around about the legendary Falls Creek Interschools monsoon.

You mean the one that was immediately followed by 30cm of snow??

 

[Wanabsnoprophet]

mm cold and lonley girls.. there is few chicks on ski trip that r single

 

[snowjunkie91]

snowjunkies if it rains lots then the girls on the trip will get very frisky ... and wet ... and cold ... and will need warming up.

Now thats what I wanna hear. although this would be good without the rain...maybe we should try and stay more on topic

 

[scottski]

...................
Ask around about the legendary Falls Creek Interschools monsoon.

You mean the one that was immediately followed by 30cm of snow??

That was after the kids got hit by Lightning.

 

[dawooduck]

...................
Ask around about the legendary Falls Creek Interschools monsoon.

You mean the one that was immediately followed by 30cm of snow??

No just another few hundred millimeters of rain and massive lightening going off in the streets.

 

[main street]

Were you there for that ?

 

[dawooduck]

Huh in a huge way ... don't get us started on that adventure.

At least the kids won gold. My boy will never go back. Whenever we get caught out in a storm he says ... remember FC dad. Worse than last years Central Coast\Newcastle storm and that was as doozy.

But the storm was just the end game. The "customer experience" started days before the storm.

It can be a great place and is a great beginner mountain but it suffers from "elitism\localism" something chronic.

 

[Wizard!]

You got no choice so just go. Don't get all despondent before you go. School trips are always fun.

Im not getting despondant, im simply asking people with greater snow related knowledge than me what their opinions and predictions are. and in know school trip are fun but $1050 would have be dissapointedly spent if the snow at falls creek melts away.

You gotta expect these kind of responses from most of the people (like me) on the forums. A lot of us, if not most will go up even if the weather is looking sh1t. I know i am, im up at Buller for the last week but id still go up even if there was no snow.

it really p1sses me off when people nag me that they want to come along with me and then one look at the weather report and they say "We're not still going are we? Its going to rain."

To this i say, "I go up to the snow for real, not for sh1ts and giggles". i know it sounds a bit harsh but its my favorite thing in the world and its what i do. And besides, what happens if the 40mm's of predicted rain turns into 40cm's of fresh, light, fluffy pow? Then you will be p1ssed off about not going and that is far worse than sliding on a patchy cover.

 

[Silence]

Just wait..could turn good.

I'm looking after a busload of uni students in 2 weeks time so i'm hoping for the best as much as you, but these models are volatile at present and anyone's guess is as good as mine..