Will we ever see another 50C in Australia?

skifree

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Demo & crane crew gave up at 1300, so off to end of year lunch. A touch warm.
 

Hermon

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I've noticed the Dew Point is rising in SA as you go further West. That might put a lid on temps.
 

doddles

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Sat pic shows convection and the BOM has thunderstorm warnings out. Convection also to the north which is putting a lid on some of the usual suspects I guess.
 

Apresski

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I had to drive into the city today, was43C when I left Melbourne, arrived in Portsea to a balmy 31C .
 

doddles

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Yep, think that's it. Still, who would have thought a little town in SE SA near the Vic border called Keith would be making a run for 50C? :)
 

teleroo

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Why is 50 deg C so hard to crack? I know it's just an arbitrary number, but more asking in terms of meteorologic factors. Is air in the high 40s so buoyant it makes it hard to stick around and continue heat accumulation? Or somy else, like not enough sunshine hours per day?
 

skifree

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Why is 50 deg C so hard to crack? I know it's just an arbitrary number, but more asking in terms of meteorologic factors. Is air in the high 40s so buoyant it makes it hard to stick around and continue heat accumulation? Or somy else, like not enough sunshine hours per day?
Basically yes.
 

Thunder077

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A long way out but EC going for 50C got Mildura next Sunday, something is seriously brewing for about 7-10 days, the models have all been hinting at it...50C is a tad too extreme though for Mildura I’m thinking lol
 

BlueHue

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Christ not a n other heat wave. Last week's was a doozy, next week's looks substantial but another one after that with potential extreme heat? Norway is looking better by the day! Hope firies can push back hard before the next round of heat and wind arrives.
 
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Greysrigging

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So here is an interesting fact re Giles Meteorological Station just over the Territory Border in WA.
Up until the end of 2018 they had recorded +44c 18 times in 63 years of records. If the forecast temps up until the end of Dec come off, they will record +44c 18 times this year ! Astonishing really, and brings home how hot it has been in Central Australia in 2019 !
Also Kintore ( altitude 454m asl ) just inside the Territory border recorded 47.7c. Now if we use the DALR of 1c per 100m of altitude, Kintore's temp would be the equivalent of 50 or 51c at sea level !
 

Greysrigging

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A long way out but EC going for 50C got Mildura next Sunday, something is seriously brewing for about 7-10 days, the models have all been hinting at it...50C is a tad too extreme though for Mildura I’m thinking lol
Does sound a bit too extreme...what are the 850h temps forecasts over the region ? would need 31 or 32 to get to 50c on the ground at Mildura.... rule of thumb of course
 
Incredible!! That's truly a scary temperature for that far south.
"That far south"...at 36° S? You've got to be joking with such an amateur statement.

Lower dew-points during heatwaves are of greater prevalence in the southern reaches of the Australian continent, as opposed to that of the northern; hence, the highest Australian readings are often found southwards of the Horse Latitudes, too penetrating the lower temperate zone; chiefly, straddling 30°-37° S. As a matter of fact, the highest reading ever recorded on Earth, 56.7° C, was held at 36° 27′ 43.92″  N (Furnace Creek Station, Death Valley, CA [–59.1 m AMSL]) back on 10 July, 1913.

Come winter, however, the temperature indeed falters in a swift manner per poleward movement of latitude—especially once the Roaring Forties are met. In summary, Southern Australia is tremendously more of a continental nature than Central and Northern Australia; the difference between summer and winter is far greater, i.e. comprising a more extreme climate. Ever wondered as to why the SW Slopes are so much colder than the NW or CW Slopes in winter; yet come summer, the SW locations get just as hot, if not hotter, than their NW/CW counterparts via summer maxima? There's your answer.

Another example, is the upper Mid-Western regional of the US; by leagues the highest average latitude of the States, yet still manages to yield climates with >49° C readings; for e.g. Steele, ND at 46° 51′ N, as well as the coldest readings in the US.
 

doddles

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"That far south"...at 36° S? You've got to be joking with such an amateur statement.
Well, implied was that I was talking about Australia. And I don't think there's been a temp close to that in Australia at that
latitude, but happy to be corrected if there has been.

And yes, I am an amateur, as I would imagine most others are on this forum. I'm not ashamed of that :)
 

doddles

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So here is an interesting fact re Giles Meteorological Station just over the Territory Border in WA.
Up until the end of 2018 they had recorded +44c 18 times in 63 years of records. If the forecast temps up until the end of Dec come off, they will record +44c 18 times this year ! Astonishing really, and brings home how hot it has been in Central Australia in 2019 !
Also Kintore ( altitude 454m asl ) just inside the Territory border recorded 47.7c. Now if we use the DALR of 1c per 100m of altitude, Kintore's temp would be the equivalent of 50 or 51c at sea level !
Yes, I've been watching Giles too. Beat its yearly (since 1956) record max by over 1C with a 46.8C yesterday. Not bad for a station at 598m altitude.
 
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Sandy

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Incredible!! That's truly a scary temperature for that far south.
"That far south"...at 36° S? You've got to be joking with such an amateur statement.

## Moderator's Note:
Please restrict comments to playing the ball, and not the man.

Most people here are "amateurs", but there's no need to make derisive comments about people who are less qualified.

For those who are not "amateurs" (It seems that Adaminaby Angler is weather professional, judging from the comments about amateurs), stating your credentials as a professional weather forecaster / atmospheric scientist would be helpful.
 

climberman

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## Moderator's Note:
Please restrict comments to playing the ball, and not the man.

Most people here are "amateurs", but there's no need to make derisive comments about people who are less qualified.

For those who are not "amateurs" (It seems that Adaminaby Angler is weather professional, judging from the comments about amateurs), stating your credentials as a professional weather forecaster / atmospheric scientist would be helpful.
not the adjective I would have used.
 
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Hermon

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Most forecast models have backed away from the extreme apocalypse on Jan 4 for Vic. But it does look nasty for NSW with strong NWlys around that time...
 
By "amateur statement", I really meant that he was sounding like a non-weather enthusuast with that "too far south" statement. I am not a professional, but instead a weather enthusiast—there's a major difference between weather enthusiasts and amateurs; the latter group does not even know what is meant by AAO phase, for e.g.

Perhaps I should've said "amateur-like" instead; came across the wrong way, and I apologise for that. It was not intended to attack his character in the slightest, hence "amateur statement"—notice the under-lined word.
 

Homer

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By "amateur statement", I really meant that he was sounding like a non-weather enthusuast with that "too far south" statement. I am not a professional, but instead a weather enthusiast—there's a major difference between weather enthusiasts and amateurs; the latter group does not even know what is meant by AAO phase, for e.g.

Perhaps I should've said "amateur-like" instead; came across the wrong way, and I apologise for that. It was not intended to attack his character in the slightest, hence "amateur statement"—notice the under-lined word.

I'd suggest that the comments in question WERE made by a weather enthusiast, otherwise they wouldn't be posting in this part of the forum and making such comments, whether right or wrong IN YOUR OPINION.
 

cold wombat

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I'd suggest that the comments in question WERE made by a weather enthusiast, otherwise they wouldn't be posting in this part of the forum and making such comments, whether right or wrong IN YOUR OPINION.

AA's comment said more about himself than anyone else. It was just showing his true nature (yet again).
 
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Greysrigging

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Telfer and Marble Bar rounded 48c yesterday. Depending which way the rounding went, could be a new all time record ( Telfer previous all time 48.1. Modest altitude too of nearly 300m ASL.
 

rowdyflat

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Just to change the subject Penrith was 48.9 c on 4 th Jan so that was a good effort.
Albury did 45.3 about 1 week ago surpassing previous record by 2 c.
Nearby with the strong wind it was like a fan forced oven some 30 yo trees couldnt keep up, silver birch leaves shrivelled up..
 
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connells

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Alight then ... bump.

Been a few high forties of late.
Today, Birdsville, 48.7 C. Best yet as far as I can see.
Is today's Birdsville reading the best we can expect given all the doom and gloom of a La Nina Summer forecast?

The last Summer in the northern hemisphere made 50 look like merely a qualification of entry.
 

Hermon

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Alight then ... bump.

Been a few high forties of late.
Today, Birdsville, 48.7 C. Best yet as far as I can see.
Is today's Birdsville reading the best we can expect given all the doom and gloom of a La Nina Summer forecast?

The last Summer in the northern hemisphere made 50 look like merely a qualification of entry.
That's a good chance of being the highest temp this summer.

Why? Big rains are likely in the deserts of Northern Western Australia and some of NT next week. That will moderate inland temps for a while IMO.
 

doddles

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That's a good chance of being the highest temp this summer.

Why? Big rains are likely in the deserts of Northern Western Australia and some of NT next week. That will moderate inland temps for a while IMO.
How about the south central areas though? That's where last year's records were all recorded. How are they affected by La Nina? Incidentally, 3rd 40C day in a row for Perth.
 

rowdyflat

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How about the south central areas though? That's where last year's records were all recorded. How are they affected by La Nina? Incidentally, 3rd 40C day in a row for Perth.
Pleasantly cooler and wetter than average here in NE Vic .except for the ski season probably the nicest year in living memory.
Cloudiness in the centre is having a big influence especially on north around to west wind days .
 
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