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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Cozzie, Jul 18, 2014.
I'll say yes we will. The scientific and climatic reason I'm saying this is…….. I'm selfish
Look at the geomorphology, there has been very little glaciation in Japan in "recent" times. During ice ages, Japan was much more arid, the masses of snow that fall are a relatively recent phenomena.
But anyways, the Tateyama thing is a bit of a crock, paging @damian . Can you show me any data suggesting 40 m of snowfall per year, Sandy?
BTW, one of the photos you posted does a bloody good job of letting the cat out of the bag re the snow blowing. Wind is important too I understand, especially given the road corridor shown in several of your photos runs along the upper part of a lee slope...
There's no doubting that Tateyama receives mega amounts of snow, but some of the figures I hear are a little ridiculous IMO. 40m of snow per season is a mega amount of moisture over the region, even if you include blow-over snow it's still a hell of a lot of snow, to all melt by the end of summer.
Having said that, places like Kutchan have an average snowfall of >10m a season, and that place doesnt feel like it has mega snowpack, even at the peak of the season. If Kutchan can get 20m of snowfall in a season, then I guess it could be possible for Tateyama area to get double that.
Things start looking like this eventually:
And really, that's not a very cold environment by any stretch. Above a point, 20-30 m or so, it becomes very difficult to accurately measure snowfall at all, we need to start modelling it, or resorting to things like crevasse stratigraphy. Re-distribution by wind and avalanche complicates things too. There are areas on the Main Divide where snowfall as high as 70 m/year have been estimated (usually based on implications of mass balance measurement and modelling on the glaciers).
Yeah but in Japan as you said earlier the climate conditions are a bit of an anomaly, in the way that rainfall continues through summer and with the heat and typhoons the snow completely melts (well almost all of it) so glaciers cannot really form.
Will we ever see snow depth above 300cm?
Will we ever see snow depth above 300cm?
I think it is very unlikely. After factoring in compaction and melting you would need the equivalent of maybe ten 50cm systems over a season and before the spring melt sets in. Given what we have seen over the last few years the likely hood of getting the right weather patterns for this to come off is very very low.
Yes we will because warming causes extreme weather. Bigger dumps, longer dry/warm spells. Basically I reckon we will see worse bad seasons and the occasional exceptional one. A few years ago I remember seeing a place in northern Canada somewhere which had a day of 17 degrees above average during winter. Yes we only been measuring temps for a relatively very short period but things like that can happen. Imagine your favourite mountain being 17 degrees above average in August!
My 2 cents.
Well, some of the reading signs skills must be somewhat lacking......
The slope on which the the snow corridor is located is on the WINDWARD (west) side of Mt Tateyama, between Midagahara & Murodo.
From now on, let's:
- Stick to the topic
- No AGW discussion
- Play the ball not the man
I will edit or delete appropriately.
Bears suggest that the Japanese must be able to build fairly robust cattleman's huts….they think that there must be snow poles like telegraph poles too….
Land of the little people with the biggest drifts!!!!!
Yes it's important to remember that our season is getting shorter and shorter.
Well it's swings and roundabouts. Yes with a more energetic atmosphere you get bigger storms with more precipitation. But in a world where you lessen the meridional temperature gradient (due to increasing longwave radiation) you cause less storms to form at the mid-latitudes. Plus the Hadley Circulation expands so what storms do form are pushed further south.
So while you will get still get the occasional big storm that combines a nice southerly fetch with a NW moisture feed and dumps a metre in a few days, you need consistent steady dumps (with no rain) in order to get a 3 metre season.
Remember you are also fighting this tread
IMHO the global warming "big events" will be rain, not snow.
The answer is YES. Well, those who were lucky enough to see it when it last happened.
This is arguably a climate topic not a weather topic, discussion of That-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named (to paraphrase JK Rowling) was implied from the start.
IMO: is a 3 m season possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. How unlikely? It's surer money than betting on sports.
have started a thread in UP for the sea ice discussion..
PG Where do you get your maps from, from the BOM website is it ? Wasn't aware you could create your own timescales such as the one above, I assume this is what you have done here or do you have access to non publicly released maps ? Still assume you work at the bureau?
No real point in discussing whether or not there will ever be a 3metre season in the future anyway as its the duration of future seasons with reasonable to good snow cover which will be the determining factor for the survival of the Australian ski industry. Once seasons become regularly bad then things become untenable and go down hill very quickly, over capacity during good weekends is not pleasant for anyone and enthusiasts start to book overseas in greater numbers...
Of course some people will never face the truth of the future.
I'm just going to leave this here (courtesy of another forumite, who is much more scientific and grounded in his analysis of Japanese snow, @damian ):
There are firns such as Daisekki near Hakuba and i think technically there is a glacier on tateyama but its more like a 100m2 creeping firn..
Seems we're playing the man again in this thread.