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Winter 2010 - Predictions / Thoughts Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 8, 2010.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah i'm yet to see a high weaken at <96 hours on any model..
    But this is a good thing...in like a lamb, out like a tiger.
    Better to have winter after the solstice than before IMO
     
    #51 Donza, May 25, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  2. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    did I see that on a desktop calendar once? [​IMG]
     
    #52 MisterMxyzptlk, May 25, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    My point is its a wee bit ambitious to expect a long winter in Australia. Timing is everything for fronts. The last years have been way way too early. All the cold and bluster in May, June and July..then bad August.
    August should be 4 weeks of cold westerlys IMO
     
    #53 Donza, May 25, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2008 was late but good.
     
  5. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    my feeling is that we're working up to something big this year...
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Pasha bulka?

    The atmosphere is so fertile

    Its like a green pasture full of new grass up there at the moment
    Last few years its been parched and windswept grass
     
    #56 Donza, May 25, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic ...
     
  8. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    the way I see it , the southerly lows are steaming through, just at the wrong latitude at the moment, and as you've pointed out , all that Northern instability has to come to something over the next few weeks....surely
     
    #58 MisterMxyzptlk, May 25, 2010
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  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I am mate....

    Alot of crew seem to think weather is determined by the whim of some whirrings of a supercomputer and modelling. Gee fat lot of good that did the british bom this year.
    IMO the weather is way more than a few well placed lines on a map. Its real beathing and living organic...it has a vibe...sheesh too many computer geeks analysing the weather gives me a headache

    I think of the weather like I think of all nature, be that the ocean, the land or the sky.
    I'm using a metaphor to comparing the atmosphere at the moment to that of a green paddock...full of potential growth and feed. Whereas the atmosphere over Australia of the past few years(seasons) has been barren and windswept.
    Nothing growing, nothing dramatic
    Stuff is happening right now from systems that barely receive a mention rainwise this is...snow will come, from unlikelu sources...yet if one of these unlikely sources is to meet something born of the furious fifties ..well could get epic
     
    #59 Donza, May 25, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #60 MisterMxyzptlk, May 25, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    deleted - off topic.

    Mod note: Agree that we're getting beyond the realms of reality. Lets try and keep it to something tangible?
     
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO with the SST's way higher than average off the east coast we're going to see an increase in ECL's which is not so good as it will mean more chance of rain events, we really need that water to cool a bit.....

    On the plus side, the SST's are also above average around VIC and towards the bight which 'could' be good for the development and peak of systems coming up through that area [​IMG]

    the next few weeks should be interesting.....
     
    #62 FourSquare04, May 26, 2010
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  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ie Today and Sunday.
    Its that sort of weather.
     
    #63 Donza, May 26, 2010
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  14. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    it is certainly a good sign to see the systems moving through at a more regular interval (more than two weeks apart) and we are finally seeing some "weather". I see the current movement of the long wave trough and the movement of the weather systems as a good sign for potential snow in the next three to four weeks
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont want to be a party pooper, and im normally pretty optimistic, but if these fronts dont start striking gold over the SE in the next 3 weeks ill have my doubts about this system. Sure the weather patterns need time to change over, but from experiences it's when the hold out for too long that you never get the systems you want/need for a good winter snow season.
     
  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    which system verm? you need to be more specific! there's still plenty of time for some big juicy systems to come through - I think we are all used to early seasons after the last few years. I remember my first few seasons of '96, '97 and '98 which were all fairly late starts with limited terrain open for the July School hols - '96 ended up being quite a good season but it was late.

    I still have faith in this season and won't be giving up on it until at least late July - come on we are so due for a big one!
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just in general IMO. Yes you like to see a shift but a stalled shift for too long is not a good sign IMO. Late winters when it was warmer then went harsh cold/frontal are OK, but when it looks like it's going to start early (winter that is) but hangs around, drawing it out, it's not a good sign IMO.

    But it's still early, im not going to call the season one way or anything just yet.
     
  18. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We did have a big one, back in 2008. IMO we are due for a shocker.
     
    #68 Rush, May 27, 2010
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  19. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    ???
    2008 ended early
    We had a shocker in 2009
     
    #69 PolePlant, May 27, 2010
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Keep on topic. 2010 predictions
     
  21. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2008 started late but I was skiing top-to-bottom of Federation in the 1st week of September at Buller. That's what I call a good season.

    I think we are due for a repeat of 2006. 'Four year cycle' vibe...and off the back of an El Nino year. The BoM forecast seems to think so too.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM seasonal outlook:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Warmer and drier than average.
     
    #72 Claude Cat, May 27, 2010
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  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im not buying it, yet.
     
  24. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    SST's in the bight are up. However there are a couple of cold core eddies that are cutting off the east coast flow. This has only happened over the past week (so it will take some time for the warm water further south to dissipate). When this goes it should stop blocking highs from forming.

    So, given there is warmer water in the bight, there might be a little more evaporation - but this will also drive temps up. My tip is still a reasonable amount of rain, but when we get a dump of snow it will be big flakes of wet stuff in large quantities. Whatever we get early in the season will be important for keeping the base, cause what falls later will be wet snow/****

    Scullee just told me to back away from the weathermaps [​IMG]
     
    #74 Yardsale, May 27, 2010
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  25. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    PG, 2008 was an average, maybe slightly above average season with a peak depth around the 180 to 190cm mark from memory? I'm still firmly in favour of the 10 year cycle [​IMG]

    I'm with Verm, while the BOM were right on the money with March & April being above average and dry, I never buy into their winter seasonal outlooks as IMO - too many times they have proven inaccurate, especially when it comes to snowfalls in the alps, which as we all know is an area that is extremely hard to predict.
     
    #75 FourSquare04, May 27, 2010
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  26. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It says 35-40% chance of higher than average temps so I read that as a 60-65% chance of average or below average temps.
     
  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh wait, looks like i was reading the wrong map.
     
  28. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are you talking a long-term average or an average over the past 20 years?

    Was 2009 a bad season? Or the 'new average'?

    2009 was a very different season depending on whether you were in NSW or Victoria.
     
    #78 Rush, May 27, 2010
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  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off the money in Melbourne. Autumn has been mild but wet (excluding may)
     
    #79 The Plowking, May 28, 2010
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  30. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Predictions that dont specify the region are not worth much for predicting cover or comparing to cover at one resort.
    A look at the diff between regions forecasts on BOM each days shows that without doubt.

    IF we are due for a poor season we had it last year.
    2009 at Buller was poor.
    With Boggy Ck and Tirol never opening, dirt on summit slide at mid August and have the cam views to show it.
    Emirates entirely man made snow and the other side of the trees on upper tirol its mostly dirt and pics sshowing that.
    Ive got videos from 08 that range Aug through Sept on the Video pages here that include rock hopping on few runs.
    09 poor to bad.
    08 was a below par season for cover and cut short.
    07 was not good either.
    06 they try to forget.
    So we are overdue for an average season on a long term average.







     
  31. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow, those highs are sitting fat and low and ridging across the continent on all the available charts until mid June.
    If we get anything before opening it will be a surprise IMO
     
  32. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I agree...they always get in the bl00dy way! :angry:
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah they do.
    every season you'll get em
    better in june than august
    oh and BTW. two weeks out (01.06.2009) from the start of the season last year the long range were showing blocking high after blocking high.
     
    #83 Donza, May 28, 2010
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  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO we appear to be in a transition phase and the patterns are still trying to adjust completely from autumn to winter. Our biggest enemy at the moment is the above average SST's off the east coast in the tasman which is increasing the risk of ECL's as we head into winter with cold air passing over the warm water, and at this stage the water doesn't appear to be cooling in a hurry so IMO we are in for more of the same type of patterns for at least the next few weeks, maybe longer....

    At this stage I would be VERY surpised to see much snow on the ground before opening weekend, perhaps not even until late June.
     
  35. themaninblack

    themaninblack Hard Yards

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    Right so the long term average is in decline, 4 below average seasons in a row does not mean the odds point to this one being better than "the average".

    That said last year started nicely for opening week but no real follow up and from memory in 08 there was nothing on the ground until early July, then bang, then not much follow up again. The pattern seems to be a couple of big dumps a year and not much else and if the big dump misses altogether like 06 you are stuffed.
     
    #85 themaninblack, May 28, 2010
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  36. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you all need to check the snow depth results for '08. Buller had almost all lifts running from late July (i.e. everything but Lower Federation) and all lifts running for all of August. I'm fairly sure Falls and Hotham had 'above average' years.
     
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The problem PG is everyone wants a 2000 or 2004 season again [​IMG]
     
    #87 Vermillion, May 28, 2010
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  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And they regard 2004 seasons as 'average'.

    If someone said "would you take a repeat of 2008 in 2010"? I'd bite their hand off.
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'd like a 1991...1992...1996
    they were my favs
     
  40. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I doubt you'll get another '91 or '92 without a big volcano altering the global stratosphere.

    BTW 1996 was very ordinary.
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    1996 ordinary [​IMG]
    crack.com
    250 peak depth
    powder (it was cold enough)...
     
    #91 Donza, May 28, 2010
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  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I skied Buller in 1996 and it rained for the entire week. Snowdepth was ordinary.

    Maybe it felt worse than it was because I had spent the summer on first O/S ski trip (Canada).
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I had maybe the 4 best powder weeks i've ever had in Australia in 1996
    while the olympics was on so late July into August...then it rained...
    then it puked through september.
     
    #93 Donza, May 28, 2010
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    <span style='font-family: Courier New'>Can we return to topic and discuss 2010 again.
    If there is relevant aspects of previous years weather patterns to this year, then that is in context.
    </span>
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Well I guess the only context is that these great seasons I mentioned all had nadda nil zilch snow come 1st July..
    (as most people are alluding to this year as well)
     
  46. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    #96 Yardsale, May 28, 2010
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  47. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    Buller village 24 hr cam just started for 2010.
    It points to the square, and easy to see if rain is falling.
    Rain is something I didnt notice much anytime last year on it looking back through images.
    Well know over the next week or so looking at it if there is more than last time around.

    At which rate it seems we have wet we may have lacked last year.
    Which is a good start, just need cold.
    If it is not a fair season in falls due to warmth, it will be a wetter year at least.
     
  48. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw and Buller were 1-2c too warm that season. It made all the difference. Hotham was insane from mid july on. Started and didnt stop.
    Reckon this might also be a similar set-up. Lots of troughs, warm and wet....
    Maybe like 05 I reckon. warm Pre-frontal overload.
     
    #98 The Plowking, May 28, 2010
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  49. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    We need a 1981 again! In 2004 there was more snow on Hotham than at Spencers Creek from memory it peaked out 228cm at Spencers and 240cm at Hotham, Buller had a good year then too. Last year was shocking at Buller I boarded there on the 10th of August, the resort had next to no snow (they "Claimed" they had 50cm that had me stumped) around the Village and Horse hill was about 2cm of slop with toboggans turning the hill to mud where the kids were sliding. The summit run was dust on solid ice until you went into Howqua, everything that was open on the south side stopped mid station even then they had pushed snow down there just so you could make it back to the lift without hitting dirt what a joke for $96 + $34 or whatever it is to park ya car ( daylight robbery ), then you have to contend with dodging and weaving around Asians that have no concept of riding snow on Holden express and Bourke Street or their sitting in the middle of the run like wtf?
    Anyways getting back to the subject as far as the weather is concerned I think that we are going to have a late start as things are far too warm. Melbourne is forecast for 17 degrees all next week with a 19 degree day Monday I think. My prediction for June is it will be warmer than average if current patterns continue and we don't get a succession of strong cold fronts that aren't "cutoff" and turn in to ECL's. The distinct lack of fronts is has caused a lack of wind allowing the deciduous trees to hold their Autumn colors much longer this year.
     
    #100 Matt.D, May 28, 2010
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