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Winter 2010 - Predictions / Thoughts Thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, May 8, 2010.

  1. drfunk

    drfunk First Runs

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    my prediction is for a crap natural season, my thoughts are with the snowmakers, they do an excellent job considering the dynamic weather patterns through our winter.
     
  2. white out

    white out First Runs

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    Been a while since I have posted and I think it is due
    My prediction is for a very mixed winter
    Unfortunately not enough snow for the opening weekend and and skiable snow by the end of June maybe
    My gut feeling after looking at the 500 charts is no skiable snow till middle of July
    We have a + IOD and blocking highs which have prevented good cold bearing fronts to come up
    This weather pattern is so similar to 1987 when we had a wet winter with warm sea temps of 21 deg C all winter
    This is not a good sign as we had a number of ECL that year and not enough cold air
    Sorry I think this winter is going to be a mud bath
    Just my opinion
    I hope I am wrong though
     
  3. Jameski

    Jameski Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    (25 July, 1986) IMO this won't happen this season.... but it sure is nice to dream [​IMG]
     
    #103 Jameski, May 30, 2010
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  4. pezza

    pezza First Runs

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    a quick newbie sort of question. whats an ECL?
     
  5. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Charts showing nothing of interest for the next 2 weeks IMO , plenty of high pressure about. There's a 1040 hpa high sitting in the middle of the Indian Ocean too. Patterns need to change if we are to see any chance of snow in the next 2 - 3 weeks.
     
  6. Jameski

    Jameski Hard Yards

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    ECL = East Coast Low...

    Generally abundant with moisture as they form over warmer waters of eastern Australia...Can produce good amounts of snow for the resorts if cold enough, as seen in 2007.

    Read this for more information http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/sevwx/facts/ecl.shtml
     
    #106 Jameski, May 30, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  7. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    That cold front was memorable Jameski, snow to sea level in Tas, you could ski on any road in Southern Tas, someone even did the Tasman Bridge. There was between 10-100cm of fresh almost everywhere, I will never forget that day and the fun I had.

    Perhaps this year will be determined by one of events, ie a couple of timely dumps and/or rain events.

    I don't have a gut feeling either way about this year, other than my worry about temps being consistently above average for too long.
     
  8. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    25th july 1986...a lifetime ago
    i went to buller and it snowed at my house in melburne
     
  9. wannaski

    wannaski One of Us

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    Usually if it is really cold in Adelaide that's when you see the snowfalls in the other states,so far having lot's of rain but not really that cold.
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Wannaski, that is a mass generalisation that I have heard time and time again. When you get a big front peak over SA/Adelaide, it can produce the goods, but most of the time they tend to weaken and slide south, missing the alps. The best systems IMO sweep up and just clip SA. An ideal scenario would be to have a cut off form right over TAS and sit there for a week but that rarely happens......

    Back on topic, and going on the current models/forecasts, there's nothing to get excited about until the last 2 weeks in June....
     
  11. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Depends on your perspective, Tas people don't want a deep low just sitting over the top of us. Preferably a low just to the east of us for the cold air stream in the south, or just to the west to get the cold nw stream for the north. However if the systems move in a west-east plane, thats good for everyone.
     
  12. Dr_Cucumber

    Dr_Cucumber Hard Yards

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    Claude Cat,

    I'd like to know how the National Climate Centre (NCC) came up with those probabilities (i.e. chance of exceeding the rainfall median and max temperature median)? (see Page 3 of this thread)

    Surely these are just probabilities that are subject to error. For example, if you toss two coins into the air, there is a 0.25% chance that both land as tails and 0.25% chance that both will land as heads. However, try this 5 times and see how many end up as double heads - my guess is it will not be exactly 0.25 (or 1 in 4)%.

    I wouldn't read too much into the NCC data. As at the end of the day, there is a 50% chance of either falling under the median or exceeding it. If you add 15% reasonable error to the NCC data (i.e. 35-70 for the snow mountains), error which I consider to be pretty conservative, then we are back into the realms of 50:50. IMO.

    Conclusion: only God knows how the 2010 season will pan out. IMO.

    Mere scientists like you and I can only dream that the relative miniscule data sets that we have to work with will yield 'sample means' anywhere close to the 'actual mean'.

    Not picking on you in particular Claude, but really this entire thread [​IMG]
     
    #112 Dr_Cucumber, May 31, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Dr_Cucumber, I don't disagree.
    In the end, we're talking about probabilities, and in particular, the temperature forecast, should be taken as a grain of salt. I mean chance of exceeding mean average temperature, what does that mean? We could be 0.1 above the average mean temp and the outlook would be right. Unfortunately they don't try and guess (for good reason) what the mean average winter temperature will be. Eg if they predicted it would be 2C above the average, then I would be really worried!
    IMO.
     
  14. ssar

    ssar One of Us

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    The 1st day of winter always brings some excitement.

    Lots of precipitation around lately, hopefully that will translate into some good snowfalls through June across the alpine regions when it gets cold enough.

    Also noticed that cold temps and fronts across South Australia can lead to Alpine snowfalls but yea, many of such systems fade / push too far south resulting in little good snowfall.. Can always hope tho!

    Yea, whilst I'd love to see this approx. 10-year cycle of good Aussie snow seasons trend continue this year, I don't give it too much credence.

    My unconvincing gut feeling at this stage is for poor snowfalls and not-so-cold temps through this June, unfortunately.
    As Matt said we need some significant changes in the patterns to kick it into gear.
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold air and fronts will come at some point. The status quo is inland troughs and ECL's.
    Seasons promising. Front meets Inland trough = mega-dump or mega-rain with usually 1c or 2c being difference.
    Reckon it will be a frustrating season at times. Get the feeling there will be a few very large falls and rain.
    As I have said before, maybe like 2005. We need the moisture either way.
    We need some triggers.
    Basing the season on what is happening now in weather terms can often prove silly anyway.
     
  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I read somewhere in the last few days that we could be heading towards another La Nina event.....

    Also the SOI has dropped to +6 as of last week......Sandy can you post your SOI thoughts for the last few months?
     
  17. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Victoria has had two cold fronts (?) since November 2009?
     
  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 30 day average SOI is about +10, while the 90 day average is around +4.

    We DON'T want it to stay around +10 for too long, as this usually means lots of rain and not much snow. ECLs can be common with these SOI levels.

    I'm not sure what the current BOM outlook is for a La Nina. Maybe someone could post that.
     
    #118 Sandy, Jun 1, 2010
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  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #119 Rush, Jun 1, 2010
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

     
    #120 Claude Cat, Jun 1, 2010
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  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe 3
     
    #121 The Plowking, Jun 1, 2010
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  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lookig at the chart archives, there were more than 10 cold fronts in that time.
     
    #122 Sandy, Jun 1, 2010
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  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the SW??
    Lots of troughs and clippers, but true SW Cold Fronts?
     
    #123 The Plowking, Jun 1, 2010
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  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And this matters because?

    Actually you're right id love SW fronts all through summer.
     
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doesnt matter, just not that common I think
     
    #125 The Plowking, Jun 1, 2010
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  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather is all about 'common' [​IMG]

    Ill blame it on global warming right now.
     
    #126 Vermillion, Jun 2, 2010
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  27. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even on the long range forecast there appears to be a high dominating us and New Zealand. However at the end of the 14 day period there seems to be some interesting possibilities....we will just wait and see.
     
  28. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    More than 3, definitely. It's snowed at least three times at Baw Baw in 2010 so far.

    I still don't understand how the highs can be this far south this time of year. Their centres should be north of us by now, but we're still getting warm, humid easterlies in Victoria.
     
    #128 ice_man, Jun 2, 2010
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  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    2005 la la lah.
     
  30. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    June 2008 was so warm they couldn't make snow.
     
  31. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    June 1981, nada all month but nice sunny days.
    July 1 still nice sunny days in Melb, but bumper 24 hr dumpers at Buller and other resorts.
     
  32. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Its deceptive really, as they are not well south compared to a normal year. Have a look here at the surface pressure anoms for May. It shows lower than average pressure in SE Oz and southern Oz.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cm...month&area=rsmc

    I think what you will find is that long wave patterns are very weak in the upper atmosphere. That is the engine room for strong cold changes and there is precious little happening at all. In many years of watching the weather I haven't seen it this benign in the uppers, perhaps ever. Who knows how it will change in coming weeks and months but its looking very ordinary in the upper atmosphere.
     
    #132 BlueMountains, Jun 3, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  33. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Some of the most recent thinking is looking at how the Southern Annular Mode ties in with SE cold fronts. When the SAM is in a negative phase, cold fronts will appear after about a lag time of a week or more. It seems that the sub polar jet (what's needed for strong fronts, usually) is most active during a negative phase of the SAM.

    Edit: Here is the SAM site:


    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

    This is an Absract within an abstract from an excellent post from ROM over at Weatherzone:

    Abstract;
    Seasonal relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the spatial distribution of the cyclone systems over Southern Hemisphere is investigated for the period 1980 to 1999. In addition, seasonal frontogenesis and rainfall distribution over South America and South Atlantic Ocean during different SAM phases were also analyzed. It is observed that during negative SAM phases the cyclone trajectories move northward when compared to the positive one, and in the South America and South Atlantic sector there is intense frontogenetic activity and positive anomaly precipitation over the Southeast of the South America. In general, SAM positive phase shows opposite signals.

    Main paper is found here:

    http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0102-77862009000100005&script=sci_arttext

    So, in simple summary, keep an eye on the SAM Index and watch for that transition into a negative phase, give it about a week and presto, fronts SHOULD start to form. I say should. [​IMG]
     
    #133 BlueMountains, Jun 4, 2010
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  34. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I went to Hotham the last week in June 1981, and there was already more than 150cm on the ground!!!!!
     
    #134 Sandy, Jun 4, 2010
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  35. Hacski

    Hacski Guest

    The two spells of wet weather the last part of May reminded me of 1981 when the first sign of what was to come was heavy rain in Canberra and I recall driving along Lake George thinking how cold it was. That is what was different from this year where I'm still in short sleeves in the middle of the day. The long weekend was the first weekend that year (6th-8th). I went to Smiggins the next weekend, it had 30cms as I recall and that worked pretty well there.
     
  36. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The SOI for May this year is similar to 1981, which might explain both being wet in May.....
     
    #136 Sandy, Jun 4, 2010
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  37. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    A general abscence of classic NW/SW systems so far this year does not bode well, although Autumn weather can often be benign.

    Until we see a re-emergence of Blackheaths long wave troughs and traditional cold fronts, not much is going to happen IMO. There may be some one off falls from alternate systems ie ECL's, but they tend to favour the higher resorts.

    Prognosis - no/little snow this month IMO.
     
  38. PolePlant

    PolePlant Guest

    OK, but whats on Hotham isn't always whats on Buller.
    (Last years I skied day trips at Hotham for first time in decades because it was a lot better cover than Buller)

    My bday is the 26th June and I didnt have it at Buller and didnt start till after that.
    And the first day there was at least 15 of us who where starting that day, some had started the day before I know, and as far as I could tell then ones who were already there were part summer crew doing winter.
    There were some lifts running when we arrived but not many and looked like they had only cranked them up that week..
     
    #138 PolePlant, Jun 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    I tend to think that carbon forcing is only part of the climate change scenario that is reducing frontal activity. There are still many things about southern hemisphere systems that need to be understood. Its not looking good at present but nature can swing things around quickly. Keep an eye on that SAM chart, as a general rule it takes about a week or so for the stronger fronts to kick in as it moves towards negative territory:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

    We can still get snow without a negative SAM of course and even the LWT can be ordinary and snow still occurs but it seems our chances are better when the SAM, which appears to be tied into the sub polar jet, really starts to drop.
     
    #139 BlueMountains, Jun 4, 2010
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  40. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Above average temps tipped. About 10 weeks long of reasonable inbounds skiing IMO.
     
  41. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Nice big patch of rain/showers, yellow/orange on the radar coming up the bay now......
     
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup and i just finished washing my car.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    See Weather BBQ thread.
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers big ears, no need to duplicate stuff, my apologies.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT getting interesting from about the 13th onwards and lining up with a frontal system around these dates. At this stage it looks to be peaking over WA but things can change in a week. In any case it is a better sign of things to come.
     
  46. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

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    Continual high pressure is causing havoc for the start of the season, cold fronts are arriving but mostly in a weakened form.

    Lets hope that pattern changes.
     
  47. homeless penguin

    homeless penguin First Runs

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    IMO, could be a repeat of '08, slow start, but epic mid-end July, and big August.

    I look forward to some nice spring skiing [​IMG]
     
    #147 homeless penguin, Jul 1, 2010
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  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I'm thinking the same thing.....we are in for a BIG August which is a traditional style of winter anyway, I still think we are too used to early starting seasons!
     
  49. CycloneSteve75

    CycloneSteve75 First Runs

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    Lets hope so. My second trip is mid August....my first is second week of the holidays...eeek...
     
  50. homeless penguin

    homeless penguin First Runs

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    #150 homeless penguin, Jul 6, 2010
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