Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

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POW Hungry

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1st June... worth benchmarking our climatic standpoint.

SOI: 0.3+ (30 day value)
IMG_4361.PNG


AAO/SAM: +1.3 (trending neg)
IMG_4358.GIF


IOD: +0.33C
IMG_4362.PNG
 
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rocketboy

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Cape Town cuts back to survive worst drought in 100 years

Cape Town (AFP) June 1, 2017

As Cape Town suffers its worst drought in a century, residents have been told to restrict showers to two minutes and flush toilets only when "absolutely necessary".

The city -- South Africa's biggest tourist hotspot -- and the surrounding Western Cape province have been declared a disaster area by the local government, with just 10 percent of usable water left in the dams supplying the area.

Two hours from the city, Theewaterskloof Dam, the main source of water for Cape Town, has been reduced to a flat and sandy desert, with the petrified remains of orchards flooded when the dam was built in the 1970s standing starkly under the sun.

At the local watersports club, exposed moorings reveal where sailboats once floated. The long slipway now ends about 30 metres (100 feet) from the water's edge.

"I've worked here for about 20 years and I've never ever seen the dam this low," club secretary Lise Wheeler told AFP.

For Cape Town residents, the drought has let to a gradual escalation of restrictions, from the limits on splashing at public pools earlier this year to the current complete ban on topping-up swimming pools or watering gardens.

The newest restrictions limit residents to 100 litres (22 Imperial, 26 US gallons) per person per day and rule out its use for anything other than cooking, drinking and essential cleaning.

Last week Virgin Active, a health club operator, said it would close saunas and steam rooms at its gyms across the province.

"The best strategy to manage a drought effectively is to manage demand, which is what we are doing," city councillor for water Xanthea Limberg told AFP.
 

POW Hungry

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Good, bad or neutral standpoint?
We're in neutral territory for most (all?) of the ENSO/climate indicies so I think that's a start. I see most HERE, are suggesting average seasons and I think that's a fair call considering there's no real show stoppers, or anything that supports huge falls for the next few months for that matter.
 

POW Hungry

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Adelaide: Early-season cold spell not seen for a century
Ben Domensino, Thursday June 1, 2017 - 09:51 EST Adelaide is on track to endure a run of cold mornings not seen this early in the season since 1889.

The state capital city's chilly transition into winter comes amid a string of cold and frosty mornings across South Australia this week.

Clear skies, light winds and a cold air mass underneath a strong high pressure system are responsible for the run of below-average minimums.

The coldest place in South Australia this morning was Yunta in the North East Pastoral District, where the mercury dropped to -4.7 degrees shortly after 7am. This was the coldest June morning in five years.

Further south, Renmark was cold enough for severe frost this morning as the temperature reached -3.2 degrees. This was its coldest minimum this early in the season for 11 years.

Adelaide reached a low of 2.9 degrees in the city this morning as frost crept into some of the outer suburbs. This was Adelaide's second consecutive morning below five degrees and this run could be extended to five by Sunday.

If Adelaide drops below five degrees for five consecutive mornings this week as forecast, it will be the city's coldest spell this early in the season for 128 years.

The last time Adelaide recorded five mornings in a row below five degrees was during August 2014.

Minimum temperatures will rise at the start of next week as the stubborn frost-producing high finally gives way to a frontal system.

- Weatherzone
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-early-season-cold-spell-not-seen-for-a-century/526445
 
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snowblowa

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So I stumbled down from swindlers today, onto the cat track, under road runner and down to heavenly bottom.
Snowmaking areas have big 40cent whales, rest of the open ground is not too shabby, another foot and a bit and a LOT of terrain will open. Gotcha and Orchard looks nicely coated, perhaps a foot across the board.
Spoke to some snowmaking technicians half way down heavenly, said summit, road runner and village loop will open next weekend on snowmaking alone...
Here's a few snaps off my phone...

4E50963A-01CE-4E31-B34B-1826471C1E0E_zpso6plh0cn.jpg


F20D30AF-7256-48A5-9EA2-E3022F89A937_zpsur9pxqva.jpg


C204B2AE-B0A8-4D33-8B67-994836434BAD_zpsbkdrnygy.jpg


14A2FCC5-861C-455F-AD08-041E16CDA794_zpss3zaazmy.jpg


94F30F8E-C092-434F-B40F-167B7FC977B8_zps5p1mttoz.jpg


EB35310E-3483-49F9-B9C8-B98DD9BBA958_zpscj9iic1q.jpg


92A48F2F-D619-4A30-B9B0-59B4D1982350_zpsbe4ph8cy.jpg


BC1C35F1-1E95-4E1A-9029-8CAA97D3ED98_zpsdysoonh9.jpg


DB90DD30-A353-4476-9338-3F0BC1097761_zpswthhl8uk.jpg


075B3D37-CFE8-4844-BA05-2C7075484342_zpsajdunyh0.jpg


03BAFE83-EB00-4966-8156-8611C6B6740D_zpspfxrv9ke.jpg


❄️
 
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POW Hungry

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Says it all really.
cfs-avg_z500aMean_aus_2.png

I'll be honest; EC ensemble and even GFS doesn't map much for the next couple of weeks.
If it's any consolation CFS suggests a more westerly flow towards the end of June. CFS certainly suggesting a slow start to the season.
 
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POW Hungry

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Stratospheric warming over the next week looks to slow polar flow/jets according to EC & GFS.
Screen Shot 2017-06-02 at 8.33.28 pm.png
Screen Shot 2017-06-02 at 8.55.02 pm.png

To me, this is looking like a 'minor' SSW event.
I wish I had 10mb anoms for South Pole. Anyone?
 
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POW Hungry

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I don't have the charts, but this might interest you.
pole10_sh.gif

Grey Line- Average
Black Line- Observations

This and other stratospheric graphs here:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Currently colder than average polar vortex, and only getting colder.
Yeah, I've been monitoring via JMA. This is only useful if the SSW event is splitting the Polar Vortex, which is the most common form for the Northern Hem. Not so on this occasion, it seems.
 
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POW Hungry

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Looking moreso the case of a minor SSW, here:

What does that mean? Well, history says following a SSW event there is often a sudden shift in the Polar Vortex (over 2-3 weeks), which stems from the impact of upper-level waves as a result of an SSW event - in short the Polar Vortex is often thrown out of equilibrium and we start seeing high amplitude waves (nodes) affecting the mid-lats.
Perhaps @janesweather or @jwx has some more input here?
 
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1st_King_of_QBN

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Obvs there's time to clear things up but GFS puts a sink-hole of pineapple moisture ahead of the main feature on the 14/15th.

Long time to play out. Last year's deluge that culminated in the formation of Lake Perisher proved to me how much of a beating the base can take.
 

Cuddles

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Perisher cooking @ 4.2C (+5C in the last hour). That snowmaking 'base' on Front Valley won't last a week IMO.
Plenty more weather to come. Perisher will keep topping up , every night is good at this stage, going to be FV for awhile yet though
 

Outlooker

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Plenty more weather to come. Perisher will keep topping up , every night is good at this stage, going to be FV for awhile yet though
Temps dropping rapidly in the evening so they should get 12 hours snow making every night. Temps are warm during the day but the days are short. On snowmaking alone Perisher should get Mid Express open and probably happy valley for next weekend. Even 10cm would be good to keep the ground cooling and top up the current run. Just hope no r@$&
 

POW Hungry

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GFS staying with the 15th, EC looks to be starting to come around with a shift of the blocking high. Still a long way to go.

GFS solid with tropical influence (16th).
IMG_4415.PNG

EC with a shift of the High into the Tasman (15th) and building front under WA.
IMG_4416.PNG
 

Karicta

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I think it's time the Australian ski industry bit the bullet and moves Tassie a few hundred k's east
 

Hermon

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AAO forecast looks rather rubbish for the next week or two.

On a happier note, global 2m temp anomaly has gone from +0.6c to +0.28c in the past week or so.
 
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POW Hungry

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IOD is slightly on the +ve side, and I think this will be the significant driver of what happens this winter. A cool but dry winter which will keep the snowmaking machines working flat out, IMO.
RE: IOD.
To highlight it's neutral-positive. If it were >+0.4, above the neutral threshold, then the affects would be than more than likely cool/dry. The neutral range kinda indicates it's neither here nor there and minor effects might be felt.
 

Hermon

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RE: IOD.
To highlight it's neutral-positive. If it were >+0.8, above the neutral threshold, then the affects would be than more than likely cool/dry. The neutral range kinda indicates it's neither here nor there and minor effects might be felt.
I do like the potential forecasted model trend; dipping into neutral-neg by August. Like a lot.
Until then I'll take it with a pinch of salt.
A very big pinch of salt. But this year just feels so 1989 to me. A slow but cold start, then a great August (especially in Vic), IMO. That's the vibe I'm getting....
 

rocketboy

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Best "Pineapple" ever. No rain on the mountain. No ECL - weather hugging the coast while heading north and out to the east.

Meanwhile it was chains at Sawpit and Freshies on front valley this monring. With some snow falling at the Cooma/Braidwood backroad pass at 4000 feet while heading home around 1pm this afternoon. A truly perfect day.

The seasonal vibe is good.
 

POW Hungry

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Best "Pineapple" ever. No rain on the mountain. No ECL - weather hugging the coast while heading north and out to the east.

Meanwhile it was chains at Sawpit and Freshies on front valley this monring. With some snow falling at the Cooma/Braidwood backroad pass at 4000 feet while heading home around 1pm this afternoon. A truly perfect day.

The seasonal vibe is good.
I knew Deua would see something! Was it settling? Seemed heavy on the radar.
 
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rocketboy

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I knew Deua would see something! Was it settling? Seemed heavy on the radar.

Na was just melting on impact. Only light precip - enough to keep the dirt down without turning into a mud bath. Might settle overnight if more keeps coming through at low temps.
 
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nfip

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Top of the Badja is >1200m ish fwiw.
Noticed it was copping it early this arvo.
Still looks to be getting hosed.
 

POW Hungry

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PV begins to shake this blocking pattern after the 14/15JUN, and although it looks like it might result in a bit of ridging across the sub-trops of Aus some good weather-driver winds look to reestablish the return of some SW'lies IMO.
 
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jwx

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L/R the next decent trough to break the current ridge pattern is about 10 days away, as per the usually reliable EPS.

This would tie in with the current modelling of the lifting of the mei-yu front forcing from the n-h


eps_m_z500a_c_ausnz_39_1.png
 
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