We're in neutral territory for most (all?) of the ENSO/climate indicies so I think that's a start. I see most HERE, are suggesting average seasons and I think that's a fair call considering there's no real show stoppers, or anything that supports huge falls for the next few months for that matter.Good, bad or neutral standpoint?
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-early-season-cold-spell-not-seen-for-a-century/526445Adelaide: Early-season cold spell not seen for a century
Ben Domensino, Thursday June 1, 2017 - 09:51 EST Adelaide is on track to endure a run of cold mornings not seen this early in the season since 1889.
The state capital city's chilly transition into winter comes amid a string of cold and frosty mornings across South Australia this week.
Clear skies, light winds and a cold air mass underneath a strong high pressure system are responsible for the run of below-average minimums.
The coldest place in South Australia this morning was Yunta in the North East Pastoral District, where the mercury dropped to -4.7 degrees shortly after 7am. This was the coldest June morning in five years.
Further south, Renmark was cold enough for severe frost this morning as the temperature reached -3.2 degrees. This was its coldest minimum this early in the season for 11 years.
Adelaide reached a low of 2.9 degrees in the city this morning as frost crept into some of the outer suburbs. This was Adelaide's second consecutive morning below five degrees and this run could be extended to five by Sunday.
If Adelaide drops below five degrees for five consecutive mornings this week as forecast, it will be the city's coldest spell this early in the season for 128 years.
The last time Adelaide recorded five mornings in a row below five degrees was during August 2014.
Minimum temperatures will rise at the start of next week as the stubborn frost-producing high finally gives way to a frontal system.
So, I decided to try and show how deep it is on Bourke St tonight
And I'm currently falling asleep to the sound of snow guns.... ive missed that
I don't have the charts, but this might interest you.I wish I had 10mb anoms for South Pole. Anyone?
Yeah, I've been monitoring via JMA. This is only useful if the SSW event is splitting the Polar Vortex, which is the most common form for the Northern Hem. Not so on this occasion, it seems.I don't have the charts, but this might interest you.
Grey Line- Average
Black Line- Observations
This and other stratospheric graphs here:
Currently colder than average polar vortex, and only getting colder.
Obvs there's time to clear things up but GFS puts a sink-hole of pineapple moisture ahead of the main feature on the 14/15th.
Temps dropping rapidly in the evening so they should get 12 hours snow making every night. Temps are warm during the day but the days are short. On snowmaking alone Perisher should get Mid Express open and probably happy valley for next weekend. Even 10cm would be good to keep the ground cooling and top up the current run. Just hope no r@$&Plenty more weather to come. Perisher will keep topping up , every night is good at this stage, going to be FV for awhile yet though
RE: IOD.IOD is slightly on the +ve side, and I think this will be the significant driver of what happens this winter. A cool but dry winter which will keep the snowmaking machines working flat out, IMO.
A very big pinch of salt. But this year just feels so 1989 to me. A slow but cold start, then a great August (especially in Vic), IMO. That's the vibe I'm getting....RE: IOD.
To highlight it's neutral-positive. If it were >+0.8, above the neutral threshold, then the affects would be than more than likely cool/dry. The neutral range kinda indicates it's neither here nor there and minor effects might be felt.
I do like the potential forecasted model trend; dipping into neutral-neg by August. Like a lot.
Until then I'll take it with a pinch of salt.
I knew Deua would see something! Was it settling? Seemed heavy on the radar.Best "Pineapple" ever. No rain on the mountain. No ECL - weather hugging the coast while heading north and out to the east.
Meanwhile it was chains at Sawpit and Freshies on front valley this monring. With some snow falling at the Cooma/Braidwood backroad pass at 4000 feet while heading home around 1pm this afternoon. A truly perfect day.
The seasonal vibe is good.