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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. newman

    newman Addicted

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    Thanks mate.
     
  2. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Sun is brutal booting / skinning out this morning below 1700 #sweat
     
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  3. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    Maybe I am just sweating out Saturday night on the first line today...
     
  4. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Weekend temps almost double digits
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Epic evening out on the Main Range tonight. Nil wind, a bitta cloud for definition.
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS and EC Ensembles have some interesting variations around the 5th. Nothing i would consider sinking my teeth into but it is interesting that they both feature tighter packed pressure gradients than one would expect coming into Sept.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4-7th has been showing trend of GFS.
    I agree.
    Not much else on other models though.
    Gotta keep an eye on it.
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles look like a WA peak event.
     
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  9. balmz

    balmz Hard Yards

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    Disgusting. - Just my luck I'll be up at Falls this weekend skiing slush.
     
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  10. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Coldish at night so first thing to 10am would be great
     
  11. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Get it early as the overnight freeze turns to corn!
     
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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perth may be in for some weather on the 5th.
     
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  13. balmz

    balmz Hard Yards

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    Thats the plan!
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The area between St Louis and Oklahoma City is seeing a massive amount of lightning atm.
     
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  15. Kletterer likes this.
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Must be some rather tall towers there.
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    New thread is up. On face value it looks like a clipper but watch that High get shunted as models come to grips with the new neg SAM phase. This one could be a biggie.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you want to see a model struggling with the anoms across the board, check out GFS 06z long range (+200 hours).
    Mind boggling scenarios throughout the whole hemi.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Approx 200 and 300 hours
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Redoing this from the 5-8 Sept period to talk about long term here.
    1. There is forecast to be a LWT node on the 5th of Sept.
    2. Hence it's golden period is the 5th to the 8th of Sept.
    3. There is forecast to be a -AAO peak in the lower troposphere on the 1st of Sept
    4. Hence it's golden period is from 1-5th of Sept.
    5. This isn't really due to the SSW's effects, because the tropo-strat connection is weak.
    6. The SSW's golden period is from the 10th of Sept - 10th of Oct (details as soon as they come available).
    7. Some snow during this 5-8th Sept period (I’ll maintain my 10-25cm).
    8. Next thing on LWT is 14th to 17th of Sept. I like this idea in particular.
    9. 25th-29th of Sept would be next down the line. This would be our last statistically real chance.
    10. Expect more rain to get into the mix; It’s spring that’s the reality. This would be amplified if the MJO/tropics becomes more in play later on in the month.
    11. For those who like a Sunny September, I’d wait until October (or going skiing in the next fortnight)
    12. If this comes off to it’s full potential (massive if), we would be “skiing” Bull Run in December. Heaps and heaps of snow on the MR and the Vic peaks. Another year with a late CP Road opening.
    Follow this space. Will change.
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. TheFake

    TheFake One of Us

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    So what you're saying is we're going to get a repeat of 2017, and that I should get super hype and tell all my mates we're going to get another meter right? :D
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let’s hold back a little, but there’s certainly potential.
     
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  24. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    I am sensing something BIG for mid September. Looks good!

    Goto
     
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  25. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^ Kiss of death
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I should add that GFS has ramped up the -AAO this evening for the 1st of Sept with some SSW weakness filtering down. So it actually looks better for something on the 5th. But then goes into a full on +AAO around the 10th in the troposphere, so best be looking for an event in that 5-8th Sept period as early on as possible.
     
  27. @700 mb IO focused big flux right there.

    Southern Polar Wind

    10 hPa/mb – Approximately 31,000 meters (101,700 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective

    70 hPa/mb – Approximately 18,000 meters (59,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective

    250 hPa/mb Approximately 10,400 meters (34,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective

    500 hPa/mb – Approximately 5,600 meters (18,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective

    700hPa/mb – Approximately 3,000 meters (10,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective

    1000hPa/mb – Approximates Mean Sea Level Wide and Focused Perspective
     
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  28. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m not quite sure what to say to that. Escalating things too quick is one phrase that comes to mind.

    I need more.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    An example of control in a sea of anomalies.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perth hit a diurnal max of 29.2C today.

    Knocked the all-time ('98) August record out-of-the-ballpark by +2C.
    A +10C max anom.
    FMD!
     
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  32. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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  33. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Falls creek
    7
    9
    10

    Next week
     
  34. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is the rain falling as snow up above 2000+ metres over the Illawarra at present. I recall @POW_hungry said this occured earlier this year. Seems to be similar today?
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow falling above 1500m in the Illawarra at present.
     
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  36. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    where? Moss Vale?
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hypothetically anywhere in the Illawarra above 1500m
     
  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL GFS.... Have a lie down.
     
  39. phantomas

    phantomas Hard Yards

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  40. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday the 13th
    Why not
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    By Black Friday they mean white...
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. gfs_aao_2019082912.png Maybe a longshot
     
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  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Karicta, MickM, WarrandyteWX and 13 others like this.
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was there again on 0Z run.
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Space ship back at Perisher. Pic courtesy of FB.
     
  48. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s cool
     
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking pretty nice out there today on the South Coast - I'm going to the beach!

    Meanwhile, it better snow on Friday nite and hopefully all day Saturday!
     
  50. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Looking like snow definitely Frinday night and Saturday. POW day Saturday and I'm stuck down the coast for wife's birthday.
     
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