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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
Sun is brutal booting / skinning out this morning below 1700 #sweat
Maybe I am just sweating out Saturday night on the first line today...
Weekend temps almost double digits
Epic evening out on the Main Range tonight. Nil wind, a bitta cloud for definition.
GFS and EC Ensembles have some interesting variations around the 5th. Nothing i would consider sinking my teeth into but it is interesting that they both feature tighter packed pressure gradients than one would expect coming into Sept.
4-7th has been showing trend of GFS.
Not much else on other models though.
Gotta keep an eye on it.
Ensembles look like a WA peak event.
Disgusting. - Just my luck I'll be up at Falls this weekend skiing slush.
Coldish at night so first thing to 10am would be great
Get it early as the overnight freeze turns to corn!
Perth may be in for some weather on the 5th.
Thats the plan!
The area between St Louis and Oklahoma City is seeing a massive amount of lightning atm.
Indeed and when the frontal low moves offshore it may spinup.
Must be some rather tall towers there.
New thread is up. On face value it looks like a clipper but watch that High get shunted as models come to grips with the new neg SAM phase. This one could be a biggie.
If you want to see a model struggling with the anoms across the board, check out GFS 06z long range (+200 hours).
Mind boggling scenarios throughout the whole hemi.
Approx 200 and 300 hours
Redoing this from the 5-8 Sept period to talk about long term here.
There is forecast to be a LWT node on the 5th of Sept.
Hence it's golden period is the 5th to the 8th of Sept.
There is forecast to be a -AAO peak in the lower troposphere on the 1st of Sept
Hence it's golden period is from 1-5th of Sept.
This isn't really due to the SSW's effects, because the tropo-strat connection is weak.
The SSW's golden period is from the 10th of Sept - 10th of Oct (details as soon as they come available).
Some snow during this 5-8th Sept period (I’ll maintain my 10-25cm).
Next thing on LWT is 14th to 17th of Sept. I like this idea in particular.
25th-29th of Sept would be next down the line. This would be our last statistically real chance.
Expect more rain to get into the mix; It’s spring that’s the reality. This would be amplified if the MJO/tropics becomes more in play later on in the month.
For those who like a Sunny September, I’d wait until October (or going skiing in the next fortnight)
If this comes off to it’s full potential (massive if), we would be “skiing” Bull Run in December. Heaps and heaps of snow on the MR and the Vic peaks. Another year with a late CP Road opening.
Follow this space. Will change.
And for anyone wanting details on the Stratospheric Warming
So what you're saying is we're going to get a repeat of 2017, and that I should get super hype and tell all my mates we're going to get another meter right?
Let’s hold back a little, but there’s certainly potential.
I am sensing something BIG for mid September. Looks good!
^ Kiss of death
I should add that GFS has ramped up the -AAO this evening for the 1st of Sept with some SSW weakness filtering down. So it actually looks better for something on the 5th. But then goes into a full on +AAO around the 10th in the troposphere, so best be looking for an event in that 5-8th Sept period as early on as possible.
@700 mb IO focused big flux right there.
Southern Polar Wind
10 hPa/mb – Approximately 31,000 meters (101,700 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective
70 hPa/mb – Approximately 18,000 meters (59,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective
250 hPa/mb Approximately 10,400 meters (34,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective
500 hPa/mb – Approximately 5,600 meters (18,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective
700hPa/mb – Approximately 3,000 meters (10,000 feet) Wide and Focused Perspective
1000hPa/mb – Approximates Mean Sea Level Wide and Focused Perspective
I’m not quite sure what to say to that. Escalating things too quick is one phrase that comes to mind.
I need more.
An example of control in a sea of anomalies.
Perth hit a diurnal max of 29.2C today.
Knocked the all-time ('98) August record out-of-the-ballpark by +2C.
A +10C max anom.
Is the rain falling as snow up above 2000+ metres over the Illawarra at present. I recall @POW_hungry said this occured earlier this year. Seems to be similar today?
Snow falling above 1500m in the Illawarra at present.
where? Moss Vale?
Hypothetically anywhere in the Illawarra above 1500m
GFS.... Have a lie down.
All seasons (both) in one day in Darwin yesterday, started of with fog in the morning then the wind took it all away and by 2:30pm humidity dropped to a lip cracking 4%, this must be some sort of record.
Friday the 13th
By Black Friday they mean white...
Maybe a longshot
Last long range outlook for the Aussie Alps for this season now available.
Discussing long term threats 16-20th Sept and 27th Sept-1st Oct
Also talking about the potentially good end to the snowfall season.
Cheers for those who have read the outlooks during the season
Was there again on 0Z run.
Space ship back at Perisher. Pic courtesy of FB.
Looking pretty nice out there today on the South Coast - I'm going to the beach!
Meanwhile, it better snow on Friday nite and hopefully all day Saturday!
Looking like snow definitely Frinday night and Saturday. POW day Saturday and I'm stuck down the coast for wife's birthday.