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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    But could be one of those days where the new snow goes to porridge as the temps warm in between cold air.
     
    W0nkey D0nkey and Paperboy like this.
  2. cornice11

    cornice11 One of Us

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    keep fomo in check. wont be a pow day. fresh snow day yes. but not powder.

    yes this. first few runs will be great, then heavy. will be better after a good groom. im going sunday instead.

    maybe i should stay on topic and put this in predictions thread?
     
    Paperboy likes this.
  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    im heading up for fri-sat-sun

    funnily enough i wanted spring corn, sun, no wind for this weekend
     
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  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC isn’t showing a meaningful warming at present. Based on this (Hotham 1650) should stay reasonable quality between falls.
     
  5. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Monday and Tuesday might be a good option then.
     
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  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    A rumble in the jungle around the 16th-18th, extending towards the 20th IMO.
     
  7. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    A bit like Sept 2003.
     
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  8. cornice11

    cornice11 One of Us

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    Sun is getting stronger though. Depends on cloud cover. Imo
     
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  9. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    I like it, they just keep coming, looking forward to a good backcountry season.
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Usually started in October.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought it was usually started in spring....
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well winter can be construed as the entire snow season.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, we usually let this run on through September.
    If there's non snow weather to talk about, you have the "day to day" threads for that.
     
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  15. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Piss off Spring.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    948hPa central pressure spotted on EC 00z, over the IO quadrant tonight.
    Seems SSW induced.
     
  17. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So......my camping at diamintina hut this weekwnd for a nice spring weekend, backcountry festival, slow starts, 2 coffees, corn harvest, beers in the sunset, is looking a bit chillier and windier
     
  18. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    There could be main range snowfall across the next 3 Saturdays looking at the long range charts.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    PSST...MJO is here and it's growing.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC's precip outlook (0 to +170 hours) in the short-to-mid-range:
     
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  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z, 16th SEP:
    [​IMG]
     
  23. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Seems reasonable...
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's what I call licking the baggie (& fingers) clean...
     
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  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    nah.
    Not till summer shift in Nov.
    just frothing some of the stuff I'm seeing goes on down there.
     
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  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Da faq they smoking
     
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  28. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes yes yes yes and yes

     
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe. EPS Control doesn't mind it.
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So, GFS this morning then...
     
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  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Defying a lot of trend, alignment and some outlooks there.
     
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  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    having a laugh...
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To it's credit EC has flipped and showed 'some' interest in next Friday (13th). Anything beyond that is pollywaffle.
     
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  35. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    In my ongoing quest for data and analysis I have taken a look at historical day and evening average temperatures for Mt Hotham over the last 30'odd years.

    Hotham had 3 different weather stations and has some gaps in data unfortunately, notably 1989 (only December record) 1990 (Nov/Dec missing) and 1991 (only December recorded).

    I took data from 1980 to 2018 and excluded the above 3 years, then collated each months average day and evening temperature and created an average for each respective year from every months record. I was expecting to see a trend in temps up - however I found the opposite. There is a clear trend DOWN, especially so for daytime temperatures.

    Not sure if there is a better part on the forums to talk to this, however would be keen for views and thoughts? What other analysis would be interesting / worth looking into?



     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly interesting - cheers for that.

    Just an acknowledgement that climate change is changing the world towards a different place. That for many places will be warmer than normal, but for others it may get colder due to more extreme weather.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Proof in the last 3 seasons.... Whilst we break heat records elsewhere month to month, year to year.
     
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  38. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Are the three stations one after the other ie in sequence? If so may be worth putting a line through the start/finish dates of each to see if the change of station has led to an obvious change in temp readings. Fairly minor changes in location can cause noticeable changes in temp, so worth ruling out that possibility in doing trend analysis.
     
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  39. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes fair point. It was an interesting exercise. I'd like to do it for other locations, it's very time intensive.
     
  40. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are yep - but they have massive gaps in data. I'm talking years missing and majority of months missing on years that data was recorded.

    I excluded the records before 1980 because the data was so patchy it would have been a bit meaningless tbh
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    16-18th remains in tact on EC Ensembles & GFS Determ this morning.
    There's trend there and has the potential for another 10-25cm top-up IMO.

    EC suggesting some prefrontal risk, GFS going with an all-snow show ATM.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    16th still there on 18Z Rapid. Looks rather brief though.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ERA Interim had anomalies for around 20- 21st a while back. It may be back on the table if we get some trend happening.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still there this morning, along with other variables.
     
  45. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    A last gasp at Equinox. Funny how Equinox seems to bring with it some wild weather nearly every year.
     
  46. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    18Z GFS has a reasonably strong front on Monday Sept 16. Temps are a little on the marginal side though...
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The wider EPS ensemble seems to have more interest in the 24th.


    There's a few little warm and wet moments on EC, but shouldn't be too much.
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just a weak temp anomaly on todays ERA output with no neg pressure or heights. Other dates looking lacklustre as well. Having said that - the amount of high +pressure and blocking seems quite over the top imo and its seriously contrasting Fridays run.
     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    We are going into a +AAO state, so it is to be expected.

    That said, there are some indications of a -AAO in that last third of the month.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like it mostly south of the Alps. EC has it fairly wet for Melbourne Monday and Tuesday, but bugger all in the NE.
     
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