But the 21st-23rd looks like fair game for the moment at least on the deterministic models. EC 00z looks more expansive than GFS, but GFS is more likely to pack a punch with snowfall. EC slows the cold pool over SA, as it weakens. With a fair bit of prefrontal. There’s room to grow here.
Weather needs to go on a hiatus around that time. Was hoping for a blue bird window to include a weekend. bring on the ridgy digg. Still along way out.
EC just showing a reasonably heavy prefrontal trough, with a dry cold airmass behind it. GFS with an intriguing undercutting coldfront on the 23rd. And of course the big random scenario tagged along to the end of the GFS run for the laughs. Looks like our next LWT passes are on the 21st, and then again possibly in the first days of October.
FWIW, I can't see the that pre-frontal eventuating. It's a model aberration on the current +'ve IOD phase. There's bugger all moisture to draw on in that NW swing IMO.
Yeah that’s what I thought. Draws it’s moisture from the warmth deeper out in the IO, and also from the tropical moisture left over from the MJO pass through the region over the past week or so. Both are pretty sketchy to rely upon. However we already have the Sunday event, being fuelled from the IO: Won’t be the 50mm+ that EC suggested though IMO (for the 20th)
The period seems to be lining up after a period + ve AAO's for early to mid-September. Late September early October is looking good.
So we are looking at some rain on the Sunday then a cold change maybe some snot and then clearing and springy sunny wed thu fri for that week starting 23rd? First week vic school hols. Cheers.
You are looking at rain on Friday into Saturday. The rest is up for debate. Sunday-Tues/Weds looks like a decent shot for some snowfall. It's not looking like much more than 5-10cm or so ATM, but there may be a surprise in there. After the backend and the cold pool passes, you'd expect the return to spring-like conditions later in that week.
With no posts on any of the forum pages for many hours and a friar event heading towards the alps where is everybody with predictions?
On Friday night into Saturday, we have a prefrontal rain event: It’s going to hit Buller the worst with 10-20mm, which is certainly not the end of the world. And the MR resorts have seen downgrades, so are unlikely to see more than some showers out of this initial band. What happens next is up for debate (still). EC likes it nice and cold for a few days to help freeze the base a little bit, before the inevitable spring warm temperatures come back. It’s pretty dry though. GFS on the other hand is playing around with another NSW low/potential ECL. Could be snow in the southern flank up high, quite a lot of it, if it actually happens. I’d suggest it will downgrade/change though.
Cheers @Jellybeans..... Its the big fat high sunny cornfest the next few days that interest me the most! Rain. Snow. Sleet. Wind can all GGF AFAIAC
PS thanks to all have contributed to predictions etc this season ive really appreciated it and its enabled me to get the type of days i want for me, family n friends. Cheers
The moisture due on Friday/Saturday has upgraded on EC 00z, but so has the cold on the backend. Angling itself to be mostly snow at higher altitudes, and 50/50 rain/snow for the rest of the resorts.
It looks good for a few consecutive freeze /thaw cycles . ( the more the merrier at this time of year ) End of next week however is a slushfest.
Looking pretty wet on EPS Control. GFS looks like it has a better backend. Both going big for the moment.
Perhaps the first seen effects of the Antarctic Strat warming event; an AAO, neg SAM dive in the first week of October:
Whilst record IOD events typically occur once a decade we've seen a +/- record phase in the last 3 years, so statistically it could be a few quiet years ahead, as far as the IOD and snow-season influence goes.
Thoughts on main range winds this weekend coming? BOM forecasting it to be pretty windy, yr.no disagrees...
Mean speed should be around 30-35 Sat with the odd gust of 50-60 possible and Sunday abating further ( taking GFS and EC plots into account). A bit of EC bias tbh.
This year’s predictions accuracy analysis: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/snow-prediction-accuracy-thread.78902/page-3#post-4048672
The end of 1st week/weekend of October offers a glimmer of hope to me. Wouldn't be playing for sheep stations though.
