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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC remains on trend for the 21/22nd as above, albeit in a sea of ridgeyness.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z singing from the same hymn sheet:
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    16th is all too warm on EC 00Z run.
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the 21st-23rd looks like fair game for the moment at least on the deterministic models.

    EC 00z looks more expansive than GFS, but GFS is more likely to pack a punch with snowfall.
    EC slows the cold pool over SA, as it weakens. With a fair bit of prefrontal.




    There’s room to grow here.
     
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  5. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Weather needs to go on a hiatus around that time. Was hoping for a blue bird window to include a weekend. bring on the ridgy digg. Still along way out.
     
  6. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hair dryer is on.
     
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  7. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    So it begins
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC just showing a reasonably heavy prefrontal trough, with a dry cold airmass behind it.


    GFS with an intriguing undercutting coldfront on the 23rd.


    And of course the big random scenario tagged along to the end of the GFS run for the laughs.
    Looks like our next LWT passes are on the 21st, and then again possibly in the first days of October.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FWIW, I can't see the that pre-frontal eventuating.
    It's a model aberration on the current +'ve IOD phase. There's bugger all moisture to draw on in that NW swing IMO.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And some pre frontal on GFS imo
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah that’s what I thought.

    Draws it’s moisture from the warmth deeper out in the IO, and also from the tropical moisture left over from the MJO pass through the region over the past week or so. Both are pretty sketchy to rely upon.

    However we already have the Sunday event, being fuelled from the IO:


    Won’t be the 50mm+ that EC suggested though IMO (for the 20th)
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still keen on a 23rd/24th event.



    EC not so much, but I’d at least watch this period.
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Some nodal action on the global.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The period seems to be lining up after a period + ve AAO's for early to mid-September. Late September early October is looking good.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A mixed bag of instability on EC for 20- 21st. Some for Vic and more widespread later in NSW.
     
  18. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    So we are looking at some rain on the Sunday then a cold change maybe some snot and then clearing and springy sunny wed thu fri for that week starting 23rd? First week vic school hols. Cheers.
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are looking at rain on Friday into Saturday. The rest is up for debate. Sunday-Tues/Weds looks like a decent shot for some snowfall. It's not looking like much more than 5-10cm or so ATM, but there may be a surprise in there. After the backend and the cold pool passes, you'd expect the return to spring-like conditions later in that week.
     
  20. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    With no posts on any of the forum pages for many hours and a friar event heading towards the alps where is everybody with predictions?
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    On Friday night into Saturday, we have a prefrontal rain event:


    It’s going to hit Buller the worst with 10-20mm, which is certainly not the end of the world.
    And the MR resorts have seen downgrades, so are unlikely to see more than some showers out of this initial band.

    What happens next is up for debate (still).

    EC likes it nice and cold for a few days to help freeze the base a little bit, before the inevitable spring warm temperatures come back. It’s pretty dry though.


    GFS on the other hand is playing around with another NSW low/potential ECL. Could be snow in the southern flank up high, quite a lot of it, if it actually happens. I’d suggest it will downgrade/change though.
     
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  23. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers @Jellybeans..... Its the big fat high sunny cornfest the next few days that interest me the most! Rain. Snow. Sleet. Wind can all GGF AFAIAC :)
     
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  24. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    PS thanks to all have contributed to predictions etc this season ive really appreciated it and its enabled me to get the type of days i want for me, family n friends. Cheers
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The moisture due on Friday/Saturday has upgraded on EC 00z, but so has the cold on the backend.

    Angling itself to be mostly snow at higher altitudes, and 50/50 rain/snow for the rest of the resorts.
     
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  26. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hey Jelly, hows this one going? Firming up or fading away?
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slipping south. Just snow showers on Saturday, and consistent snow showers on Monday.
     
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  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks good for a few consecutive freeze /thaw cycles . ( the more the merrier at this time of year )
    End of next week however is a slushfest.
     
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  29. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slush would have to be better than glug.
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gut feel
    October 1st
    The last hurrah
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah there’s something there. Don’t know what.
     
  32. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Severe weather warning issued for Snowy Mtns area tonight and tomorrow.
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon you may get some flash bang early morning.. Then heavy rain.
     
  34. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I won’t, but all those heading south this afternoon might. Lots of traffic heading down.
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahh back in cbr.

    Silly them
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I raise you the 4th.
    4th of Oct showing on a few LR ensembles models.
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking pretty wet on EPS Control.
    GFS looks like it has a better backend.
    Both going big for the moment.