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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
I won’t hold you to it. Taking kids down for one last slide. Fingers crossed. Cheers
Looks like most likely to slide south.
Unless we get some sudden spike of a -AAO during that time.
Was more looking at Sunday/Monday.
Based off this I assume.
It would depend on the AAO, which may improve the deeper we get into the month.
Short wave is there, it's ahead of the LW.
As I say, glimmer of hope yet.
FWIW ensemble mean AAO has strengthening buy-in on neg AAO first week of Oct - expect upgrades in the LR, IMO.
Backdoor betty on axsr
Statisically we are due for another reasonable cold precip sometime in next 10-14 days.
Though that rain event might have used up this months quota for precip.
Maybe. Again we are going to need to see a -AAO though.
Todays ERA interim 46 dayer is not showing any love for the next fortnight +. Temp Anomalies are neg for the rest of Sept indicating a reasonable freeze/ Thaw cycle for the corn season.
A subtle last sigh.
Needs SAM to help it out of the death bed.
Buller pow day Saturday.
The last hurrah. Looks quite warm into the first week of October.
I must say, much of Winter 2019 has exceeded earlier expectations. We were fortunate with some decent -ve AAO events to keep things ticking along, especially from mid-July.
I'll be at the footy
Last 2 years I timed my movements to perfection, this year not so much. Then I spent last week up there with gastro and a ****ed back and watched a metre of snow evaporate from the couch.
A blankie might be in order
Remember ten years ago we had a epic dust storm in NSW?
Then the AFL Gf was on that weekend
It was a legit Pow weekend
Yep the 09 GF was wet and cold and I got a constant stream of texts about the pow.
I had already pulled up stumps that year, I got a new car and replaced the windscreen in my old one to get a RWC, it had the Buller permit on it so going up would have been a PITA. So instead I watched the Aints hearts break with a Scarlett toe poke to Ablett to a Chapman snap to seal it. We got there pretty late so it was standing room only and pretty chilly. #coolstorycarveman
Yep. Sept 2009. Famous for the "Red Dawn" dust-storm which hit Sydney on the 23rd. And Geelong won the GF against the Saints.
One of the interesting outcomes was that the dust created a Phytoplankton bloom in the Tasman Sea.
Season closer 4-6th, still a chance on determs
EC's trying, but not exactly cold...
GFS this arvo is probably a product of this:
Would be great if we finally get that SSW anomaly down to the troposphere.
-AAO/SAM is happening. All members now in agreement.
Getting smashed by snow in North Island NZ. Please send sunshine from across the ditch.
If we get something in the first week of October, your NZ conveyor belt is disrupted and you are back to spring sunshine.
EC is seemingly a few runs behind GFS at the moment.
GFS via yesterday’s run:
You still reckon this is on? Literally nothing on EC/YR.NO.
Neerrrr. It’s a clipper. Dusting at best IMO.
yep. real close to nothing at all to see here.
BOM climate bulletin ‘ain’t mincing it’s words with temps over the next quarter...
EPS Control liking the 10th now.
didn't you get the sermon from the shire - it's all gossip. nothing to worry about that $100m more for the farmers won't bandaid over for aother few months.
gfs liking next weekend....
With the AAO heading towards negative, could this become something?
that's good - 'cause it sure is looking like pond skim heaven at present on norway
Snowed again at Mt Mawson (yesterday) and falling at Bawbs:-
I hope not. Around the bay bike ride is on Oct 6!
We've clocked up nearly a month since our last >15cm snowfall.
The last hurrah (4-6th Oct) is dead in the water, so to speak.
There goes 2019 season - a little lack lustre in it's ending; weather-wise, considering the July/August we had. Nonetheless, it's been an incredible season with a notable amount of 'good weather' between systems.
Cheers for the good times & active participation over the winter season, all.
Resorts did ok this year. Basicaly a trio of stoic systems that delivered the business nicely and a few bits and bobs kept the fizzer factor down.
EC upgrade on Monday night, Tuesday system.
Landing just outside of season 2019.
Clipper, with perhaps 5cm in it IMO.
Pretty incredible start in May.
I think it was @Kletterer who said the year of anomalies, which I think was pretty accurate.
Can't thank you and all the other weather gurus enough for your predictions and guidance this season. Been outstanding.
I visit the weather threads every week to help me plan bushwalking and skiing trips. I find it immensely useful and I’ve learnt a lot.
I appreciate everyone’s dedication and hard work!
Such a great forum with plenty of dedicated gurus. Thank you guys, it’s the first thing I look at every time I pick up my iPad.
Can’t believe the season is coming to an end.
Almost time to say adieu to this thread for the year.
Sad but true Claude.
I'm looking forward to @Gototakahashi 's first prediction for 2020
Dedication takes many forms .
So google is telling me it will snow in jindy tomorrow. Wishful thinking or is Jack sending me a goodluck message?