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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
We have now moved onto the Alpine and Southern Spring Weather Banter thread.
The Winter BBQ Forum is OPEN for business!
Nice day 1 to winter.
Cold, windy, rainy
This day last year......A ways to go yet.
. . . and now snowy! Buller getting more love than others again. Could be Buller's year!
Can we at least get all the cams on ?
Jane's bespoke forecasts are back for the season:
perfect. now winter can get started.
Cold and wet in Melb ...yes I bet ground is cooling!
Showing on EC Ensembles is 3-5cm for Aus resorts, 'through the back door' next Sunday.
Next considerable system showing on EC Ensembles is the 15/16th June. Looks quite meh though IMO.
15th-18th June period intrigues me a little, signal is there, climate drivers might not be.
Good morning everyone,
there is a light dusting on the hills around Canberra.
After mid-June might be OK if the AAO cooperates, and the forecast is trending towards neutral (from very +ve).
MJO on the other hand looks like it'll be stuck in Phase 1 & 2 for a bit. A dry couple of weeks coming up.
GFS likes it...ATM
Super Block on the cards for the SE over at least the next 10 days, IMO.
Give me something to froth about please!
Or just a poor-performing early-mid June at the moment. Which most people wouldn’t consider part of the main game anyway.
This was the BHP road on June 2nd 2020. I had the limited XC ski snow cover to myself. I am now bitten by the Sir Froth a lot 2020 ski bug and require another fix! I will start doing a snow dance if need be or dabble in voodoo to make it snow.
That is right. 2019 did not kick start until early August really. July 2019 was nothing flash either.
July last year was pretty alright once the mega dump arrived around the mid. Had some great days there
2014 is a good template at this point. "Snowmageddon" 3-4 weeks away.
At least the guns are on. Might have more than a carpet running by the 24th.
15th-18th June still on the ensembles as a signal for something:
Nothing major though, and falling south from a WA peak
VIC . was very average in July 2019 for plank action. I had better XC skiing for a day at Baw Baw in Nov. 2019.
GFS 18z was showing the 6into7th as others pointed to before. As having potential for a light winter mix.
Yes, I had noticed this, absolutely ridiculous. They have changes the website 3x in 5 years now, each version progressively worse.
You should post Gerg’s tweet in the Spencers thread too
The Grasshopper seems to be of the opinion that June 15th-17th could bring us some plank action in terms of snow falling.
GFS sort of hanging in there.
Tasmania looks like it might get some snow in that forecast. Mainly R*** seems likely for VIC.. We shall watch and see.
Could be on the money @ that date range.
I am watching this carefully .
I should have also mentioned there is quite a few individual eps ens-members with the same solution.
Oh good. More hopecasting coming up.
Special colours this time of year.
Never take it for granted.
Maybe so but this is the winter BBQ/snow chat type thread. I have said I will try to behave myself on the observations and predictions threads so as to not upset people with my exceedingly excessive frothing. I am enthusiastic to a fault about the various outdoor pastimes I enjoy.
I finally went for the ignore.
Perth looks pleasant on the other side of this block. 25 today and again tomorrow, and 20+ for the whole of the forecast period
My first long term outlook of the Australian season:
Dates I mention as possibilities:
14th-17th June (being discussed)
Not a great time in terms of climate drivers ahead, but maybe some hope towards the end of the month and into July.
Enjoy the frothing.
& enjoy the weather frothing too.
It's called anticipation
It's all part of the package.
GFS early days still. Thinks a very broad cold snap again @ that date.
EC was thinking a little further south. But also a broad moist cold airmass. EC was showing last week in week2 moisture would start streaming in from the indo via mid latitudes over WA. Models have been showing strong upper level divergence developing over our region (lift) from about the 10th from the indo west WA mid- lat and moving east across the continent bottom plots.
Will look back in @ about the 10th, to see how its panning out.
The return of a strong +'ve AAO scenario is looking a likely outcome in the LR.
Dislike. I mean I guess the good news is after such a strong high, it should bottom right for the start of July. Right? Right....
So this means frosty mornings and sunny days and weak fronts for the next few weeks pow?
An established blocking pattern and strong westerly (zonal) pattern for the mid-lats/sub polar regions.
Tas should continue to see strong winter frontal patterns at least.
Somewhat typical for June nonetheless.
Generally what the strong positive AAO delivers:
Hopefully some of those tas systems push further north and give southern vic a clip lol