Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hobart down to 3.4ºC this morning, a few degrees below avg.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This winter feels different
     
  3. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    What do you mean?
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    To the last few.
    Way more moist southerly onshore flow on the NSW coast.
    Less gusty NW winds (we got those all through summer)
    It reminds me of winters past. Not great ski season winters .....
     
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  5. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    Warm, dry and boring, although a minor clipper "front" moves in around Sat–Sun:

    [​IMG]

    The culprit behind this boring weather (IMO); AAO Index now running at +2.5 :headbang:

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unlikely to change soon unfortunately.


    A month for the snowmakers IMO.
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perfect for a hopecast
     
  8. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hopecasts as you call them only occur when there is some frothing. I am not frothing over this weather system......
    Yet.
    Overall June 2020 looks like slim pickings for snow sports.
    I am as you can observe (in this particular thread) keeping to facts and available data at hand and not bathing in rampant speculation as per the request of the moderator and perhaps as per an implied inference that as Chaucer himself would have put it : "Thouste frotheth tooe muche".
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big zonal swings in our region over the last fortnight:
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our fellow sandgropers would agree with you:
     
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  12. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    ^Ummm, why such an arbitrary figure as 22.8° C?
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yet the week before they battled the atypical ex-TC Mangga from the NW...
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indeed.
    It's wack
     
  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup seasons toast.
    Glad they picked a dud for a pandemic
     
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  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  20. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Today is the 9th day of winter right?
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. teleroo

    teleroo Lincoln Turns at the Pass Ski Pass: Gold

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    So it's about this time of year I find myself getting a bit anxious. Two week trip school holidays trip coming up first two weeks of July, natural snow cover a little thin at Charlotte Pass and ridgy-didge city across south eastern Aus weather wise for June. Charlotte Pass (or Selwyn, last year) doesn't have the snow making setup of the bigger fellas. Need to roll with the punches I guess, last year was similar and things turned out OK.
     
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  23. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Calm the farm. :)

    This happens almost every winter, we have an early dump in late May followed by a lackluster beginning of June and then things come together in July.

    I think we go through this exact angst every winter as well..
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm always a great believer that weather presents in cycles or trends. We can then identify those trends and cross reference to seasons past. Anecdotally of course.
    This early season feels like 2007 type season.
     
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  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well... No.
    Last few seasons have had exceptional early starts
     
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  26. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Timed a trip to perfection at Hotham that year.

    It's because they moved the Olympics to next year. Broke the chain.
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I mean not if we were talking about this in May.
    June doesn’t look great, but it’s no reason to kick out the rest of the season.
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah I'm not. 2007 and 2017 were similar.
    Just peaked later.
    Moreso it feels different this year.
    More onshore flow to the NSW coast.
     
  29. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup. As I recall last year, great late May (in VIC), everyone excited then a rubbish few weeks of June with barely any natural on the ground and a great rest of the season.
     
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  30. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler One of Us

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    I find that July and August receive by far the best snowfall events (likewise September >>> May). June is traditionally the driest, and least active of the three winter months—so I'll set my expectation bar lower.
     
  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next week looks dismal. Little snowmaking - some rain with damp squib temps. At best it's looking better than 2014 and 2016 for late June - with anything possible after that. Maybe it'll be a dog well into July - or Snowmageddon: The Zombie Lives will burst forth from the clutches of the plague and paint the mountains white.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    25th-28th of June looks like a maybe for some snowfall, beyond the medium term.
     
  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Ironically the same time that 2014 went from zero to hero.
     
  35. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Check out this awesome shot:

     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    NCEP prescribing a double-down on the AAO outlook with Ensembles looking a little more 'sure' on this prog IMO.
    Could we be seeing the end of the Autumn variability? Sure looks favourable post-20th.
    [​IMG]

    @stormkite2000 how's EC's AAO outlook?
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't say I am overly-enthused by EC Ensembles LR:
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 46 dayer was dreary on Tuesdays run.
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a start though.

    Probably because of this flat-is medium term AAO neutralising trend.


    But it's a start though.
     
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I mean it's hard to see the light out of the tunnel, when you are in the darkest part of the journey.
    It'll get better.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks.
    Looks inline with GFS, at least until ~16th Jun.
     
  42. Ian

    Ian One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    $150 day tickets at Thredbo.
     
  43. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am by no means an expert, but that looks like quite a large cold fron coming through on the 17th of June. Potential for some snow around the 24th???

    You guys with the fancy graphs have a much better grip on it than I do. Im just a man with Bom

     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s a significant system, but it’s all SW WA’s.
    Will take a couple of swipes of frontal activity (or a planetary wave) to shift that H daddy
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM and Ms Bunn are now backing a dusting of snow at the usual locations esp. above 1700 M.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham

    Nothing major or worth a big drive for fresh XC ski tracks at present.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Mt. Hotham
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 3
    Late showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Mostly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely at night. Winds northerly 40 to 55 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Sunday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 1
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 8 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Monday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 2
    Showers or snow.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers or snow. Winds northwesterly 30 to 35 km/h.

    Tuesday 16 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 2
    Max 3
    Showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h tending westerly during the day.

    Wednesday 17 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 5
    Partly cloudy.
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
     
  46. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    The 378 Hopecast Express
     
  47. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Wake me up in two weeks so I can have something to froth about!
     
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  48. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 Early Days

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    If that high doesn't bugger off by mid-July for my ski trip I'm going to go stand on Mt Kosciuszko with a leaf-blower and make it go away.

    I feel like June has left winter and is now some awful purgatory in-between season that's only slightly colder than autumn but far more boring.
     
  49. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Marcus keeps on giving:

     
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  50. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn has a theory that goes like this:
    "
    We have two drivers of weather working against us at the moment. The first is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). That’s been “positive” since mid May, and helps keep cold fronts over the Southern Ocean rather than crossing the alps. The second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It was positive last year (helping the drought), went neutral in January (when the tap was turned back on and rain returned), and went back into positive at the end of May.

    For snow, we do best with a negative SAM and negative IOD.

    But, this overall pattern won’t last forever.

    Forecasts suggest SAM could go neutral by 20th/25th June, and possibly negative after that. The IOD is expected to go neutral by early July and should go negative after that. "


    So we need to fast forward to late June. Until then surf conditions in VIC. will be Okay to very good . That should keep some of us busy until it is time to swap over full time to skiing. I am getting a new car stereo installed next week in time for the L O N G drives to ski at Falls Creek/BHP and the KNP.
    :)