Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Interest is rising for that time..Mainly guessing, but do you see nothing?
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks okay on EC for 10cm or so:
     
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  5. AnnerleyX1

    AnnerleyX1 First Runs

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    GFS 7-14 accum precip is looking Saharan
     
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  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    Baw Baw at present might get a dusting of snow on June 20th-21st according to Ms Bunn's modelling but nothing worth driving 3 hours from Melb. ( one way )looks likely at present.
    June 28th might be a better bet but it is too far off to speculate on.
     
  7. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of loooooong range hope here...
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well the 20th-21st is kind of a thing now:


    25th-27th June is currently stuck in a ridge (both EPS and GEFS)...
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    VIC ski seasons should officially start on July 1st. Apart from some snow in May and maybe early June we do not seem to get skiable snow in June. July/August /September/ Maybe Early October are skiable times in VIC..
    Tell that high pressure system that is blocking these cold fronts to p*ss off! .
     
  10. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    QED per your own post above.
     
  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Be nice if this came off
     
  13. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I don’t like thinking this way, but it definitely looks like we need to get through the next couple of weeks at least until possibly things might start to change. IMO
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    This actually looks the improvement:
     
  15. JuLe

    JuLe Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    My knowledge in this area is very limited, but AAO is heading the right way after the 16th?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heading the right direction after ~20th as per @Jellybeans post which supports/compliments the long range trend of the AAO.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to see the upper stratospheric vortex establish itself at the end of the month, there on Zach's plot.
    Indicative of possibly it's first 'warming event'.
     
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  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The whole planet is warming!. Is n't that the main problem overall?. What we need is mini ice age so we can XC ski all year round without needing a ski resort!. Imagine XC skiing replacing other forms of transport to and from work, shops ,cafes etc. Maybe that happens in Alaska but not here.
     
  19. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I have my terminology right, I think the warming event Pow talked to destabilizes the rotating polar vortex and can push cold fronts further north towards us
     
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  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it's actually strengthening (cooling) per that guidance at least in the stratosphere.
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I know you do know pow. But for anyone unsure how to interpret the EC aao forecast.


    The most recent forecast is the big bubbles,the colored lines are previous forecasts. Color coded on the right. That allows you to look at the forecast trends.
     
  22. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    24th back to a clipper on GFS but as Jelly said 20th -21st now a "bit of a thing"
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Backed by EC too.
    A snow in strange places event of it were to come off as progged.
     
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  24. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Friday June 19th - Monday June 22nd according to Ms Bunn's modelling looks like a froth free /snow sports free zone at present.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
     
  25. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Hey Mister Tee, you should have a play with the various forecast models and come up with your own conclusions, rather than just relying on Jane’s automated forecast. It’s a lot more fun!

    This is a good starting point: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._frzn&runtime=2015042118&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=581
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    25th-27th June system lives....
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Signal on EPS as well:


    Kind of on GEFS and GEPS, just scraping the continent, still a while to go yet.
     
  29. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking dog at the valley

     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The definition of a strong +AAO/SAM pattern in our region:
    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS showing as premature by comparison to it's long range counterpart; EC.
    Divergent.
    EC Ensembles show an unassociated system making landfall on the 27th
     
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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS looks ripe for something around the same period:


    Certainly some real potential there, looks pretty solid to me.
     
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  34. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Can’t say I’m surprised. GFS has had a long known tendency in the forecasting community, especially in the NWS for being too progressive with eastward moving midlat systems at longer range. Often notice it here too.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This needs a new thread. Cause this has epic written in stone.
    Look at that high.!
    Embedded low in the tail.
    Toot toot.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No feeling 'game' about the 27-29th (ish) myself so I'll post this here.

    EC Ensembles not really setting the world on fire (yet) IMO.


     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's got Cher on the Missouri written all over it
    IMO
     
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  38. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Extra chain for the dog!
     
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  40. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    That High could be the friend we are looking for. !
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting....


    it’s one model but that’s potential nonetheless.
    GFS has it visualised too somewhat.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS showing strong wave presence on the filtered LWT output, due through the SE 26-30th Jun:
     
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  43. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The AAO forecast is showing potential for a huge drop in SAM in the next 14 days. Inferences drawn from previous systems says this period show's potential IMO
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just to put things into perspective.
    That strong SPV (stratospheric polar vortex) is a little bit of worry, if we see it fully couple with the TPV (troposphere).
    But for now, yes the -AAO drop looks good.
     
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  45. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    For my own benefit, why would it be a worry and what is the potenial effect of if?
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think he’s referring to the long term downstream effects which can promote an strong +AAO/SAM scenario as it filters down through the Atmosphere.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah watch that strong positive (or cold or strong) anomaly in the top right corner of the chart, and see that it’s slowly descending. It may cause problems for us (like a more zonal +AAO outlook) sometime in July.
     
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  48. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    Ok - Technically outside of this threads date range, but I have a vested interest in Mid July - Windy as of the 26th of June shows a non-friendly High Dominance Pattern ? Things may or may not change, but it doesn't look like we get much action post this cut off low...for a while ?

     
  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC weeklies control runs liked another after the the cold pool.

     
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  50. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Also with such a dominant high, it usually means extended period of snow making.
    At least if they can make a heap of snow, it’s better than what we have had the last few days.....
     
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