What you are looking at is 240 hours (10 days in the future), don’t look into deterministic modelling so literally. Things are very fluid after Tuesday.
The snowline has been suggested to be 1400m on Saturday in NSW by the BOM. Do you guys see this. Im not understanding how they are getting the forecast for rain at PV when they are saying snow above 1400m. Clarification from the experts please.....
There are some weird contrasts between the "town" forecasts which are more automated vs the human influence in the district forecasts.
As far as GFS Ensembles is concerned we see uncertainty beyond the 24th June between members. Long Wave Trough stalls under SW WA (25th) leading to some uncertainty in the deterministic model. Like GFS, EC keeps the 27/28th ear marked with moderately weak system through the SE. I am still of the opinion that it will have right of way and be owed an humble upgrade following the system this weekend.
Not sure of your meaning. Rockies is a good bet for snow in summer thinks ec. But cant see with a huge cold anom in aussie winter. That's why i asked you for that forecast. forecast.
I understood your reference to my dependence/reliance on other sources of snow and surf forecasting but The Rocky mountains are not just a day trip to Mt. Stirling are they ? John Denver should not have gone off in his light plane while "Rocky Mountain High".
Very cold “season-starting” system at T+384 hours on GFS: As for the 26th-28th June, it looks ridged out for the most part: The change of pace in terms of the AAO seems to be wearing thin on the GFS forecast: Very possible that we stay with the +AAO theme into July, which wouldn’t be great for us.
RE aao forecast big trend into negative. GFS model likely maybe onto something with those ranges with the cold starter coming. I tust the E C AAO forecasts more than its snow modeling numbers.
Time for that classic school holiday system. Hopefully up there with that classic May system that came 4 weeks too early this year.
We always head down the second week of the School Holidays and there is almost always some kind of dump a few days prior or during that week. Often creates a hero from zero scenario.
Indeed. We need some kind of season starter imo. Not claiming that yet. Last seasons school holiday week was Snow Hurricane week ! But it also brought the snow.
It is good see some snow actually falling as can be seen via the web cameras .However we need 15 cms+ for Nordic skiing and even more for that other kind of skiing where you use machines to take you up the hill . NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 8cm Mt Hotham: 5cm Falls Creek: 3cm Mt Baw Baw: 4cm Perisher: cm Thredbo: 4cm Charlotte Pass: 7cm Selwyn: 2cm Lake Mountain: cm Mt Stirling: 6cm Ben Lomond: cm Mt Mawson: 5cm
Yeah decent looking trough that one you guys are alluding too on paper on the ens control run. 984mb to the west is very interesting to me as well.
yr.no is totally dry for next 10 days at PV - other than some fog over next couple of days? https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Perisher_Village/long.html otherwise, marginal snowmaking weather ...
Well here is the second update to my long term outlook for the season: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/06/21/australia-on-the-long-term-21st-june/ A real in-depth analysis on the 1st-7th of June system, that was mentioned in last outlook. Looking at the 10-14th July and 20th-24th July periods. And also looking at some largely favourable conditions in the MJO and AAO fields too. So looking like we are finally heading towards a proper start to winter in the medium-long term.
Love ya work bro, and old mate Pow too. I said it last year and I’ll happily say it again, you two really make the season hum.
I also love your work. Other than your far more intelligent interpretations of the models then myself.......IT’S SNOW TIME
Wednesday arvo. According to cams and bom it is drizzling and 1.1 at the top of Thredbo on a day when it was forecast to snow above 1500m. Discuss.
Haha what the heck is the unicorn anyway?? I don't understand the charts or the in-jokes...trying to learn both things...
It just means that GFS runs before the 7-10 day range are basically grasping at straws and often create massive systems that are never meant to be. Some succeed, some evaporate.
BoM. But I can often tell the weather in the mts from Sydney anyway. And there was just a bit of easterly in the southerly today which meant slightly warmer airmass. Didn't need to look at the cams to know what was happening down south.
The Bureau often says that, just to be sure. It was probably for very early this morning, or about this late, as temperatures have lowered.
Those models showing the the ridging after the 4th flattening out everything. They may not look the same on the ens modeling for the 5-12th runs in ten days time. I doubt myself they with hold serve. Pretty much can see a troughing @ 5 o'clock.
Do you guys write 'pre-frontal' because you dislike that other word or because that's a better technical way of describing the event?
Quick one for the gurus - what is the inverse relationship of low dew point values to observed temperatures ? Ie - If its 0 degrees and the dew point is like -6 here ? Does that mean if the dew point stays super low, the temperature that man made snow can be made is higher ? Like above zero ?
