Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What you are looking at is 240 hours (10 days in the future), don’t look into deterministic modelling so literally.
    Things are very fluid after Tuesday.
     
  2. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The snowline has been suggested to be 1400m on Saturday in NSW by the BOM. Do you guys see this. Im not understanding how they are getting the forecast for rain at PV when they are saying snow above 1400m. Clarification from the experts please.....
     
  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are some weird contrasts between the "town" forecasts which are more automated vs the human influence in the district forecasts.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bombing Low progged by EC (00z) SW to S of WA Tues-Wed.
    Textbook breaking wave.


     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As far as GFS Ensembles is concerned we see uncertainty beyond the 24th June between members.
    Long Wave Trough stalls under SW WA (25th) leading to some uncertainty in the deterministic model.


    Like GFS, EC keeps the 27/28th ear marked with moderately weak system through the SE. I am still of the opinion that it will have right of way and be owed an humble upgrade following the system this weekend.
     
  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Not sure of your meaning.
    Rockies is a good bet for snow in summer thinks ec. But cant see with a huge cold anom in aussie winter. That's why i asked you for that forecast.




    forecast.


     
  7. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I understood your reference to my dependence/reliance on other sources of snow and surf forecasting but The Rocky mountains are not just a day trip to Mt. Stirling are they ?
    John Denver should not have gone off in his light plane while "Rocky Mountain High".
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very cold “season-starting” system at T+384 hours on GFS:


    As for the 26th-28th June, it looks ridged out for the most part:


    The change of pace in terms of the AAO seems to be wearing thin on the GFS forecast:


    Very possible that we stay with the +AAO theme into July, which wouldn’t be great for us.
     
  9. Frisko

    Frisko Hard Yards

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    GFS Always the optimist 16 days out..
     
  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks, I needed a good laugh!
     
  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    RE aao forecast big trend into negative.

    GFS model likely maybe onto something with those ranges with the cold starter coming. I tust the E C AAO forecasts more than its snow modeling numbers.
     
  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Time for that classic school holiday system. Hopefully up there with that classic May system that came 4 weeks too early this year.
     
  13. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    We always head down the second week of the School Holidays and there is almost always some kind of dump a few days prior or during that week. Often creates a hero from zero scenario.
     
  14. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Can we please ask for 2 of these?
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1st-3rd July looking a goer to me IMO
     
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bring it on !!!
     
  17. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    Indeed. We need some kind of season starter imo. Not claiming that yet. Last seasons school holiday week was Snow Hurricane week ! But it also brought the snow.
     
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  18. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I hear Sportsbet is taking money on this one.
     
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  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah decent looking trough that one you guys are alluding too on paper on the ens control run. 984mb to the west is very interesting to me as well.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS...
    Loves a good re-hash.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Piggy backing like:
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah that's what i thinking also the sling shot.
     
  24. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Watching doco sbs about the making of hurricane Lucy. I might learn something about weather!
     
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well here is the second update to my long term outlook for the season:
    https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/06/21/australia-on-the-long-term-21st-june/

    A real in-depth analysis on the 1st-7th of June system, that was mentioned in last outlook.
    Looking at the 10-14th July and 20th-24th July periods.
    And also looking at some largely favourable conditions in the MJO and AAO fields too.

    So looking like we are finally heading towards a proper start to winter in the medium-long term.
     
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  27. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love ya work bro, and old mate Pow too. I said it last year and I’ll happily say it again, you two really make the season hum.
     
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  28. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    I also love your work. Other than your far more intelligent interpretations of the models then myself.......IT’S SNOW TIME
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Just a reminder.
     
  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    overall that's a slight bias to a cool neutral - border line la nina at best. ?
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh well, ENSO 3.4 ssts are overrated anyway....:out:
     
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  32. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Irritable bowel red curry?
     
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  33. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just the 160mm for Mount Wellington (TAS) since 0900hrs y'day.
     
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  34. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Wednesday arvo. According to cams and bom it is drizzling and 1.1 at the top of Thredbo on a day when it was forecast to snow above 1500m. Discuss.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All above 1900m today, on the models.
    Not sure where you’re seeing 1500m.
     
  36. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  37. Fancy_Pants

    Fancy_Pants Addicted

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    Balmy in Harrietville right now. It’s hard to reconcile the date with the temperature
     
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  38. Young Angus

    Young Angus Addicted

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    Haha what the heck is the unicorn anyway?? I don't understand the charts or the in-jokes...trying to learn both things...
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It just means that GFS runs before the 7-10 day range are basically grasping at straws and often create massive systems that are never meant to be. Some succeed, some evaporate.
     
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  40. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    BoM. But I can often tell the weather in the mts from Sydney anyway. And there was just a bit of easterly in the southerly today which meant slightly warmer airmass. Didn't need to look at the cams to know what was happening down south.
     
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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Bureau often says that, just to be sure.
    It was probably for very early this morning, or about this late, as temperatures have lowered.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Chile’s season is humming, albeit closed...
    125cm since mid June.
     
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  43. gaz35

    gaz35 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    good luck - you need sort the s#*t from the clay
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles show a strong ridge from beyond the 1st-4th July period, all the way to at least the 10th.
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    In slightly better news, we have a few showers on the radar, that may affect Buller later on.
     
  46. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Those models showing the the ridging after the 4th flattening out everything. They may not look the same on the ens modeling for the 5-12th runs in ten days time. I doubt myself they with hold serve.


    Pretty much can see a troughing @ 5 o'clock.

     
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  47. Noah

    Noah Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you guys write 'pre-frontal' because you dislike that other word or because that's a better technical way of describing the event?
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Because we start dishing out subscription refunds when r@in is mentioned.
     
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  49. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    Quick one for the gurus - what is the inverse relationship of low dew point values to observed temperatures ? Ie - If its 0 degrees and the dew point is like -6 here ? Does that mean if the dew point stays super low, the temperature that man made snow can be made is higher ? Like above zero ?
    [​IMG]
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correct.
    Refer to below.