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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
It has EPS ensemble backing too.
very, very yuck.
let's just ignore it for a week and hope it's not there in a weeks time.
Fortunately not on EC Ens
I think once we see that cut-off low evolve through the SW of WA (on Monday) we'll see models shift and offer alignment on the 8-12th window.
I do think there's something in it, but I don't think any model has a handle on it yet IMO.
Latest GFS drops that cut-off low through SW of WA so it's evident (at least it is to me) that it is the perpetrator for the LR divergence ATM.
GFS with a more favourable idea of a cold shot through the SE (10-12th)
NZ is about to cop a hiding in the next 6-8 days if GFS LWT LR plot is to be believed.
Lackyband will deliver.
Our next major system (after an interlude system ~10th) looks lined up through the SE around 17-20th July IMO, noted at 9 o'clock on the plot above.
Does anyone believe that massive high centred over the bight midweek?
Yes, this cold front will blow over,Wed. will be sunny and we will wait for another cold front to keep us amused.The snow cover low down won't last so do the skiing that is not usually possible lower down on your favourite terrain before Monday.
If the models get that high wrong there's a lovely cold pool that should arrive next weekend
I am also looking at that possibility.Friday next week could bring a snow fall.Keep Sat. week free for skiing!!
GFS and CMC are pretty aligned on the interlude at present. Plenty cold but not particularly wet.
The inland is cold. I'd track the cold with the WA low. IF we can get a medium cold injection. From the SW, it should be wet white.
GFS says yes
EC/Ms.Bunn says no at present..... but the EC flips flops a lot.
Yeah inland tough looking weak. The trough next week-end looking v/good.
Week-end trough from GAB looking ideal if it verifys.
If it's there tomorrow and we see EC buy in we'll throw up a thread for it.
It's looking honourable at this point (GFS 06Z), but you can bet your bottom dollar RN, if we see any shift in the AAO outlook that ridge will be jumper-punching this little diddy into the Tasman....
I was wondering if we’re going to get a thread. Crazy WZ not looking the worst right now (too many days out, wait til this front passes, 4 day rule, etc):
Too much divergence.
There's GFS but EC is not fully back it. EC holds the big stick at long range.
Plus WZ likes to dive straight into these things anyway.
EC also happens to look like a dog’s breakfast. I reckon one might have to wait a little longer for a clear signal.
EPS still for that not so ideal setup.
Something to consider:
EC Ensembles has work to do:
18z GFS 6 days out medium range. Complex low with the mothership just south of tassie.
Hey @Jellybeans I read your very informative blog on season expectations and was wondering where you see things going now? Is there anything that's happened since then to change your forecasts of an above average season? It seems like the recent two systems have started big and then dropped off a little, is that just early season systems or perhaps a pattern for the season? I remember last season you and POW seemed to have an excellent grasp of the systems a week out from the event, but this year seems a lot more uncertain. Thank you to you and the weather gurus for your information, makes for very compelling reading in the absence of actually skiing.
Wouldn't say it's any harder to pick this season, it's more a case of trying to pick something that's not there at the moment.
We're all trying to deliver the good news in a mediocre outlook...
In layman terms the season as-per seasonals outlooks. Modeling is just business as usual A normal winter for the se. CFS see's a more cooler nina influence.
Your run-of-the-mill winter frontal system through the SE (10/11th), on GFS this arvo.
Bit vanilla, but we'll take if it verifies.
Is this the verification you were looking for?
20-30cm system at present.
Could go two ways.
Thankfully that rain event has been rubbed.
At least there is basic alignment between the 3 main models
Looks a corker. Hires.
Quite extreme that south-north push.
GFS was a complex low component.
Like very much. Will be out Oberon way Sat-Mon. Fingers crossed. Will post photos if it comes off...
EC looks great. Although Tassie might get in the way of EC’s scenario.
A Backdoor Barry if that came off.
So does this need its own thread now?
cmc cuts off tours eastern states n pays qld a visit.
You going to have fun ridding thee trends with this system.
Way to early to quote cm's atm.
What the heck, new thread is up: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/11-13th-july-upper-cut-off.87971/
EC Run was like the ⬇
Certainly there has been not a lot of help from the tropics, the MJO has been stagnant, and the tropical momentum has been negative in the last month or so.
The AAO has been positive for the past month, until the past week with a -AAO change which has caused this recent system.
These counter-intuitive signals have certainly muddied the waters with the modelling a little IMO.
If this happens then approximately July14th will be very snowy and skiable .I am watching with interest.
Watching. Big time. Hoping lots of white solid and fluffy Jelly Beans fall from the sky for this event. Down there from the 12th. Model flip flopping from too warm to negs aao is my type of game of interest.
In retrospect, June 2020 saw the following 500mb height anoms for the shem.
A reasonable indication of 'diving-south' trend of major system under Aus, and well shy of the SE
...But gosh damn the days proceeding this timestamp look to paint a big outlook for the 16/17th:
Meanwhile, in Chile... they’re having a stonker of a season, despite not being able use or access it (CoVID). Yep, nearly 3m of accumulated snowfall already:
GFS puts this one on the table (17-20th) after this next flakey system. EC has alluded to it in the 00z run yesterday.
1st 80E system may help clear the block for this bad boy
circa 20-30E to push thru to us in the anticipated -ve SAM .