Agree, when you see stuff blowing along the ground, over ridges, like smoke, never getting above knee height, with a clear blue sky, then that is clearly wind transported snow. Happens a lot in certain locations and wind directions. However, there are many times when it is difficult to tell what is precipitation vs wind transported snow, and often both are happening
How do you do this? I would love to ignore obs posts describing how it 'just got windy in nowhereicanskiville' and prediction posts begging for the updated potential for novelty snow falls round sea level that look pretty but serve no ski purpose. But I am a frustrated whining Mexican in lockdown !
Click on each annoying and/or repetitive member's profile and select 'ignore'. You'll wish you'd done it sooner.
EC weeklies control run liking the first weekend in september as another decent chance atm. If its been already pointed to i don't know. Have not looked back in postings.
Yeah noticed the redux of neg SAM last night. Very interesting, and likely off the back of the upper strat warming that occurred last week.
No idea where to post this and it is weather related... heard on the radio that, that SAS show has had to delay recording due to the weather expected on the main range for a fear of avalanche...
Point is a film crew has decided to delay filming, due to weather and fear of avalanches - which is a bit of an eye roll. But suspect it because the are worried about exposure more. Which is laughable considering its SAS supposedly. I don't watch much FTA either. I heard about this on the news on the radio.
Yeah, GEFS and EPS are both vaguely interested in something around the 1st-6th of Sept. Will be interesting to see what comes from it in the models over the next week or so.
Saw the advert last night. An avalanche would be a good result. This sets a new low/high for the D-grade celebrity reality show. and Wow it really sets a new standard.
Yeah they named a few on the radio. That's what I think is funny! Dont think SAS get to call off missions due to weather!
"SAS Australia sees 14 celebrities take on the selection process for the elite army Special Forces, the SAS. With ex-Special Forces soldiers, including Chief Instructor Ant Middleton, leading them through it, the contestants are expected to endure physical and psychological challenges, including sleep deprivation and interrogation." They somehow think that having half your "celebrity" contestants die of exposure is not good TV
Sept 3-4 is starting to look rather interesting on GFS. Might cop a bit of pre-frontal, but looks very cold afterwards.
CMC ens control run on the 21/12z was seeing possibilities for cold air @5th as well. Blue = control /green = average mean. Melbourne
Stalling LWT has the dates being pushed back. Either way looks like a big system for SW WA at the moment.
It's a long way out and pie in sky atm.The ens do see the low pressure progress into GaB. And yeah the end of the ec deterministic run see 's the healthy trough wa @ the 1st. EC ens plot1 above cutting it off and pushing it east atm. Just a little food for thought atm.
If we could get another decent dump on top of what has just fallen us Viccos might get a spring turn after all.
Snowed in...indeed. Arrived Thursday Afternoon and it was snowing. It snowed until Sunday morning before cloud rolled in as we left around 11am, for more light snow. It then featured as a distinctive winter feature all along the ranges during the drive home. Anyway, back to the adventures after sitting in the Smiggins Hotel for beers seeing the snow coming in more. Yep, pretty excited about it - all the anticipation for the next day at Charlotte Pass where the real snowed in began. First out of Perisher and then past the frozen Spencer's Creek (the following pic does not relate the actual depth...as was a lot of poor visibility for the day ahead). Falling at a good rate, CP was a winter wonderland though one had to take to the trees for better visibility...through the mallows of fresh. Oh yes, so plentiful, each run was like the first fresh of the day. Friday night and the snow was just coming and coming and it was so refreshing to be bound to such a snowy life. Just being there is special. Saturday we did not have ski passes - never mind at all, there was a group of nine, so it was off to The Man from Snowy River for an afternoon of drinks and fiery chicken wings, before a return to Smiggins and a late night jam session - I was on Djembe, two others were on acoustic, another playing a nice acoustic bass (can be plugged in too) with some warm sounds...to complement the scene still snowy with logs for the fire. Sunday was departure at approx. 11am. The sun had broken through it was an all too soon farewell, but it had snowed constantly from Thursday to am Sunday and I did not mind digging cars out. Snow to Waste Point and some on the hills between Jindabyne and Berridale - we see these scenes many times over the years and yet they are never tiring. It was 5°C and raining at Lake George (with some water) on the way back - the most I have seen in many years. Fire up the (winter) barby Rennix Thursday and then Sunday to show difference Spencer's Creek Friday - it was disappearing and in the conditions the photos lack a lot of depth meaning the scene is much larger than it appears. Stillwell icicles Wind blasted ice patterns on the window at the lodge Diggers Sunday morning
Long way out but yeah the model has that hook. Running a daily double with follow on low pressure system in the GAB @ 8TH. Its thinking a late back-end blitz atm
What about pre-frontal rain? Noted on other long-range, it has day temps preceding this around 8 deg at Perisher.
Still 15 days away. Not much chance of calling pre-frontal rates with any confidence now. At this point its just watching the trends of the two major global models. Nailing down the anything concrete atm is over my head full stop. End of the run with a trough over 2,500 klms across before any tightening. Big ridge to the east would normally be eroding with the east progression of the trough. Picky back solutions down the track would not surprise.
Watching this with slight degree of trepidation. Supposed to be snow camping with teen telejoey1 for a few nights at Charlotte Pass over this particular weekend. A full repeat of the system we've just had might be a bit too full on . However, telejoey2 seems to have 3.60 m seared into her mind as the maximum snow depth recorded at Spencer's Ck. Marked it out on a long bamboo pole which she has been waving around in the backyard last few days. So if we have to deal with some tent excavation in order to break that record, I guess we'll have to take one for the team .
last 12Z ec ENS control and mean runs. Control plot1 Mean Plot2. As stated before atm only watching the trend. Not sure if the images are showing. Something wacky with the posting atm.
360.7 cm. But to be fair to her, some of the snow charts are a bit "artistic" with their numerical rounding and I think she may have actually spied a 3.60 m somewhere. However, it did prompt a series of questions about whether the tbars etc got buried and how did they run etc with so much snow. Anyone got any pics handy from 1981?
CMC 12Z Deterministic was thinking a v/ tight cutoff low. That scenario is on this model run is a v/severe weather solution full stop.
It will be interesting to see how the temps pan out, YR.No and Jane B are saying it is too warm @ +3 for snow.
Yeah ok your mention before dicey temps for snow. EC thinking atm End of past 12z run. 18Z is only good for out to 90hr so its useless. @ 3rd front boundary of the trough 700mb temps. Note the -numbers. Not trying to sell snow to eskimo's here. Those 700mb temps on the plot are more than sufficient should it pass over the alps with moisture for flakes.
Cresta Valley at Mt. Buffalo. I learnt to ski at Buff back when there was a poma at Dingo Dell and a chair, poma and T bar at cresta. The wheel on the T bar lift was only just above the snow in 1964.
00z EC is running so far looking ok with the trough atm will add more as it loads to the date. That is what the model was thinking on the run. Hopefully it keeps trending with the lower se cold snap. ....................................................................................................................................... CMC's Thinking atm. Cold snap
Anyone willing to offer an explanation for NSW BOM forecast of 5-15mm of precip and snowline to 1200m on Thursday? Charts have not indicated much to me so came as a bit of surprise to me this afternoon!
EC 00z. The other date in the first week of next month held serve with a decent cold snap. Precip filling in over the ALPS @ date 3-5 looks ok with the lowering heights. ........................................................................................................................................................... CMC 00Z ............................................................................................................................................................ Leave it here for now. And look back in next week. .............................................................................................................................................................
BOM have said they expect a wetter than usual spring. Do you or anyone else here consider that to be favourable for more snow falls in the Sept to Nov. period?
