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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
Mt Bogong looking as majestic as ever
Period of interest ( Slow GIF)
WTF, are they for real?
Perisher next Thursday
In my experience, bom like to scare you with cyclonic wind predictions in their long range forecasts, before backing away as the date gets closer. Last weekend, they were forecasting 125kmh gales for this Saturday. Now it’s just a light breeze.
A long way out but you've got to bear in mind we are in a transition period season-wise now. Starting to get increasing competition between winter and summer atmospheric influences. This can increase the temperature and pressure gradients between different air masses which manifests as stronger winds. This time of year the pre-frontal north westerly winds can be quite strong. Starting to get some atmospheric and terrestrial heat build up (energy storage) that has to go somewhere.
Next "weekends" system on GFS. Looking like lots of pre-frontal on Wed and much shorter duration system, confined to Thursday on last few runs. Big Fat High moving in by the weekend. Not the multi-day extravaganza we were seemingly looking at earlier. Two metres at Spencers Ck fading to black....
EC going with a similar pattern on Wed too:
9-12th SEP period looking OK for a moderately cold system through the SE, IMO.
12z ec was 5 to 6th with the cold air.
Cold snap sweeping over.
AAO forecast. EC trending neg over the period.
Icon see's the trough in the GAB on the end of its run.
00z cmc run
534 dam crossing the alps is not whats seen in warm weather ever.
00Z ec's thinking looks a complex low in the GAB.
I like the vort on the 700mb temp plot has nice nne hook on it.Looks it heads into the strait.
As a novice looking for snow, should I "like" this post?
Looks like cold air washing over, does it have the right sort of moisture?
EC ens moisture thinking over the time span atm.
Looks ok @925mb where humid moist air will likely be spiraling within the isobars.
I see a thread is up now. Those guys on it all know their stuff. As i think you do to. Best from herein for any discussion on this system in the thread.
Heaps of haze over the mountains from Canberra south.
Reminded me of Japan.
EC control weeklies thinking atm. Over the coming month.
Pollen lots of wattle out at the moment plus other blossom. Was the same on the divide at Gunning yesterday
Worth noting the snow depths in late winter and spring. Snow depths are generally higher than average during years with a negative iod. Also with current neg sam forecast its not looking to bad for September i think.
That run is over 2 weeks old now, any idea when the next one is published?
Here's the Model Comparison for SEP
You’d assume mid-month, a lot of seasonal guidance comes around then.
Not seeing any reason to challenge the forecast. If you guys do i'm all ears.
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/...alyMode=Anomaly&Field=Sea Surface Temperature
Nah, not questioning it at all. Just keen to know if we hit that -‘I’ve IOD threshold this month.
our bees have been going nuts this week.
all coming home legs loaded up.
The bush will recover.
Not so the wildlife.
A visual comparison between 2019 Winter Season & 2020 Season (GPH 500mb anoms /LWT).
For those playing at home Aus sits roughly between 120-140E in longitude.
It's bleeding obvious (at least it is to me) the SHem has been dominated by ridges and lack of planetary wave influence this winter.
Here is my final long term outlook for this season:
Overall I am not greatly optimistic for September for the hope of more snow unfortunately.
I have offered a few reasons for the poor season as well in review of my seasonal outlook:
The negative IOD forecasted for winter didn’t really happen (yet).
Lots of negative momentum in the tropics (lack of tropical waves and lack of MJO, not helpful).
And conversely not a lot of negative momentum down in the SH mid-latitudes (so it leads to a rather lacking polar setup, not a lot of troughs, more ridging).
This is set-up by a non-dynamic (until the last few weeks) set-up between an atmospheric Niña and an active Indian Ocean.
Sorry for the bleak forecast, but thank you all for the support for these outlooks this season
Bit of a heat blast this evening on the coast here at Gerroa. Warm air from the west now drifting towards the coast as the remains of the onshore dissipate. Maybe a battle between the hair dryer and a wet spring as to what melts this season away this spring. At least it's now down to single digits with it only 9 months to June again...
Myself i'am not so pessimistic about September.I guess @ the end off that month we will know for sure. No way i thinking a pitch fork atm.
Strongest standing wave in the IO by far of the season will shake things up i believe. No doubt it will have set a off planety wave. And @ some point in the next few weeks it should come to fruition in the lower belt.
Haven’t had enough of these this season. The African continent has harboured a lot from us, but that looks like the money shot if it does shift Westward.
Looks like 2 weeks of meltdown based on this morning’s yr.no forecasts. Hopefully one more polar blast this September.
Ensemble MJO forecast looks a bit better this morning. We might even have an extended Phase 5-6 pulse in mid-Sept which could make the weather very interesting....
EC looks like it's getting better too, perhaps I will be wrong.
The long term MJO forecast sometimes underestimates the strength of the pulse, particularly the ensembles.
Ultimately we do need to take the pressure out of the Indian Ocean, and actually push out into the Pacific, or any rossby waves that do come off the pole will just go into SW WA.
If it does go for another ride around, could have interesting ramifications for ENSO as well.
The south coast weather has completely flipped from yesterday's weird heat pulse - temps are currently falling at Jervis Bay and Kiama BOMs - and it now feels like a late Autumn day in May. Either a prelude to a cool damp Spring - or the wiff of hope that there's something left to give September a final polar blast.
GFS looks interesting over next 2 weeks - a bit of everything being shown as possible.
EC and GFS look garbage mid-next week and beyond. Even BOM reckon little or no precip until late-Sept.
NZ ski season agrees..! Awesome plot by the way, hadn't come across this before. Thanks for sharing.
Those were the fresh long range forecasts EC ens weeklies/Mean/Control.
yep it’s looking pretty bleak for weeks to come.
Ms. Bunn's computer says NO.
I say goodbye to the most dismal August I can remember in 15 years. No skiing , no surfing, no swimming, no bushwalking ,no nothing.
Some fantastic snowfall rates among the Craigieburn Range in Canterbury NZ this morning. Highly recommend heading to Broken River's website and run the time-slider back and forth to watch it pile up.
I don't want to rub it in.
Man its amazing the difference in vibe (Subjectivity) just on the other side of the border. The surf has been pumping (East Coast) and last weeks dump was right up there in terms of one of the best dumps I can remember on the western faces of the main range with excellent clearing conditions afterwards.
I know the below is a bit of hopecast, but its definitely better than the current scam.
A PCR Test has an inherent 0.5 to 1.5 % false-positive error due to the nature of the test (research), which correlates nicely with the positive numbers reported by the Media. I mean look at the numbers.
Front n trofs not looking to dry
I will take a hope cast if us Lepersville denizens stricken with SDS can get one ski in before it all melts. Our Dear Leader will announce on Sunday 6/9/20 if and when we will be released from custody.
Took this ice halo shot today up at Perisher. It’s duplicated in the PV thread.
[Mod Edit] - this is not the place for Political discussion
23 degrees in Melbourne
Winter can come back in 285 days along with a vaccine
EC Ensembles instilling some hope in the 15/16th.
...And it's bloody cold too.
Winds smashed though Moonbah around 2:00 a.m. but have since moderated. It’s so warm outdoors though with a little misty rain being carried of the mountains by the wind.
BOM shows pretty high overnight temps at PV.....
we have 23 degs @ 6am down here at sea level.
feels like we'll crack 30 today.
I'm coming up for a bc wander end of next week so will be riding those next incoming sytems with a little more interest.
Driving to the central coast yesterday was like revisiting summer.
The smell. The filtered light. The smoke.
Not this Shit again.
Great.....heading there this morning for my daughters wedding
Meantime, looking SW from the verandah it seems like some raised dust in the air. Hope that’s wrong. Beginning of the end for the snowpack once that settles. It just devastated the snow the past couple of seasons.
Yeah it’s a reminder of what a year it’s been. But there is new life in the bush and no doubt once we get over COVID we shall really appreciate what an amazing country we have. Some shots Morton NP Old Burrier Fire Trail I snapped..